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Post by middleenglander on Apr 1, 2018 22:06:24 GMT
There are 10 by-elections during April 2018:
* 4 on 5 April
* 3 on 12 April
* 3 on 19 April
* 0 on 26 April
6 of the contests are for District Councils, including a single member ward, last contested in 2015
2 are Unitary Councils, 1 last contested in 2015 and the other with "All Out" elections in 2016
2 are for Scottish Councils last contested in May 2017
Conservatives defend 7 seats, 4 following the death of the previous Councillor, 2 a resignation and 1 disqualification for non-attendance
Labour defends 1 seat following a resignation
SNP defends 1 seat following a death
Independents defend 1 seat following a resignation, although not having a candidate in the by-election.
Conservatives and Liberal Democrats contest all 10 by-elections, Labour 8, Greens 7, SNP and UKIP 2 each, whilst 6 Independents contest 3 seats
- a total of 45 candidates for the 10 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
I propose to trial predicting the ultimate winner of Scottish by-elections, although for April wrong winner faults will continue to based solely on first preference votes with none for the ultimate winner.
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 3, 2018 9:28:52 GMT
Again,a judicious decision by ME to move us to a new concept in easy stages.The very next Scottish election is going to be hellishly difficult to predict anyway, so perhaps not the right one to go straight in with a complete change of rules.
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 4, 2018 21:50:34 GMT
Fylde: Con 43 Lab 31 LD 20 Green 6
Highland: Ind (Wood) 24 (Elected) LD 23 SNP 20 Ind(McKinnon) 17 Ind(Campbell) 9 Con 7
New Forest: Con 66 LD 22 Lab 12
Taunton: LD 43 Con 42 Green 15
Don't take that as an indication I have any clue about the independents.
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 4, 2018 21:55:11 GMT
Heyhouses, Fylde: Con 58, Lab 25, LD 14, Green 3
Caol and Mallaig, Highland: Con 8, LD 13, SNP 19, Ind (Campbell) 20, Ind (MacKinnon) 27, Ind (Wood) 13 - Ind (MacKinnon) to win on transfers
Milford, New Forest: Con 66, Lab 19, LD 15
Wiveliscombe and West Deane, Taunton Deane: Con 44, LD 48, Green 8
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 4, 2018 22:41:36 GMT
Fylde,Heyhouses: Con 60, Lab 12, LD 22,Green 6
Highland, Caol & Mallaig: Con 6, LD 15, SNP 18, Ind (Campbell) 10, Ind (MacKinnon) 30, Ind (Wood) 22. Mackinnon to win on transfers
New Forest, Milford: Con 70, Lab 16, LD 14
Taunton Deane, Wiveliscombe, Con 52, LD 41, Green 7
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 4, 2018 22:49:12 GMT
Fylde: Con 51 Lab 22 LD 21 Green 6
Highland: Ind (Wood) 16 LD 17 SNP 25 Ind(McKinnon) 24 Ind(Campbell) 10 Con 8
New Forest: Con 68 LD 22 Lab 10
Taunton: LD 35 Con 57 Green 8
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Post by greenhert on Apr 4, 2018 23:00:54 GMT
Predictions for this week:
Fylde DC, Heyhouses: Conservative 54, Liberal Democrats 20, Labour 19, Green 7.
Highland UA, Caol & Mallaig: SNP 27, Independent (McKinnon) 25, Liberal Democrats 16, Independent (Wood) 16, Independent (Campbell) 9, Conservative 7. Independent(McKinnon) to win on transfers.
New Forest DC, Milford: Conservative 67, Liberal Democrats 21, Labour 12.
Taunton Deane BC, Wivelscombe & West Deane: Conservative 54, Liberal Democrats 38, Green 8.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 4, 2018 23:57:36 GMT
FYLDE Heyhouses: C 56, Lab 18, GP 16, L Dem 10
HIGHLAND Caol and Mallaig: Ind MacKinnon 32, Ind Wood 20, SNP 15, L Dem 13, Ind Campbell 12, C 8. MacKinnon to win at stage 6.
NEW FOREST Milford: C 71, L Dem 22, Lab 7
TAUNTON DEANE Wiveliscombe and West Deane: C 51, L Dem 37, GP 12
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 5, 2018 0:14:08 GMT
Fylde: Con 45, LD 25, Lab 25, Green 5
Highland: Ind MacKinnon 25, Ind Wood 20, Ind Campbell 15, SNP 15, LD 15, Con 10 — (MacKinnon win on transfers)
New Forest: Con 65, LD 25, Lab 10
Taunton Deane: Con 45, LD 40, Green 15
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2018 1:05:07 GMT
FYLDE Heyhouses: C 63, Lab 26, GP 2, L Dem 9
HIGHLAND Caol and Mallaig: Ind MacKinnon 7, Ind Wood 6, SNP 41, L Dem 23, Ind Campbell 5, C 18. SNP to win at stage 4.
NEW FOREST Milford: C 62, L Dem 18, Lab 20
TAUNTON DEANE Wiveliscombe and West Deane: C 61, L Dem 27, GP 12
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Post by Right Leaning on Apr 5, 2018 6:49:16 GMT
Fylde: Con 58, Lab 25 LD 13 Green 4
Highland: Ind(McKinnon) 28, SNP 25, Ind (Wood) 17, Con 12, LD 11, Ind(Campbell) 7, — (MacKinnon win on transfers)
New Forest: Con 71 LD 23 Lab 6
Taunton: LD 49 Con 44 Green 7
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Post by hempie on Apr 5, 2018 6:49:47 GMT
Fylde, Heyhouses: Con 52, Lab 25, LD 20, Green 3
Highland, Caol & Mallaig: Ind (McKinnon) 27, SNP 25 LD 19, Ind (Wood) 15, Ind(Campbell) 8, Con 6
New Forest, Milford: Con 63, LD 25, Lab 12
Taunton Deane, Wivelscombe & West Deane: Con51, LD 42, Green 7
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Post by andrewp on Apr 5, 2018 6:54:11 GMT
FYLDE Heyhouses Con 46, Lab 26, Lib Dem 22, Green 6
HIGHLAND, Caol and Mallaig Ind ( Mackinnon) 28, Ind ( Wood) 25, Ind ( Campbell) 16, Lib Dem 15, SNP 10, Con 6. Mackinnon to win on transfers
NEW FOREST Milford Con 62, Lib Dem 27, Lab 11
TAUNTON DEANE Wiveliscombe and West Deane Lib Dem 47, Con 41, Green 12
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Post by olympian95 on Apr 5, 2018 7:53:35 GMT
Fylde: Con 41, Lab 33, LD 21, Green 5
New Forest: Con 71, Lab 18, LD 11
Taunton: LD 46, Con 42, Green 12
Highlands: Ind (McK) 28, SNP 14, LD 13, Ind (Wood) 22, Con 7, Ind (Campbell) 16 - Ind (McK) to win on transfers
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Apr 5, 2018 8:53:31 GMT
Missed the deadline again sorry - think I will take a break for a month which will be very busy personally and recharge my batteries for May. Good luck everyone.
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 5, 2018 19:33:29 GMT
12 entries this week with nothing from dibs and k9 along with apologies from ricmk. Yellow Peril gets 1 additional fault for adding to 101% in the Highlands.
Fylde, Heyhouses: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 8% (olympian95 over Labour) to 38% (David Boothroyd over Conservative / Yellow Peril over Liberal Democrat)
Highland, Caol & Mallaig: 10 Independent MacKinnon ahead on 1st preferences, Lancastrian Independent Wood ahead, greenrobinhood, priceofdawn & Robert Waller SNP ahead
New Forest, Milford: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 25% (andrewp over Liberal Democrat) to 54% (Yellow Peril over Labour)
Taunton Deane, Wiveliscombe & West Deane: 7 Conservative win, andrewp, Lancastrian, olympian95, Right Leaning & robbienicoll Liberal Democrat win
Robert Waller and hempie did not give the ultimate winner in the Highlands, otherwise 9 of the remaining 10 had the candidate ahead on first preferences then being elected although greenrobinhood has SNP ahead on 1st preference with Independent MacKinnon ultimately elected.
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 5, 2018 19:49:18 GMT
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Post by samdwebber on Apr 5, 2018 21:29:54 GMT
Please give this a glance and a retweet as we await tonight's results
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 5, 2018 23:35:46 GMT
For week 1 - with Highland, Caol & Mallaig to come:| Authority | Fylde | Highland | New Forest | Taunton Deane | Week 1 | Week 1 | | Ward | Heyhouses | Coal & Mallaig | Milford | Wiveliscombe &
West Deane | faults | position | ajs | 39.7
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| 22.9
| 59.5+10
| 132.1
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| andrewp | 35.7
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| 28.9
| 65.5+10
| 140.1
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| David Boothroyd | 8.6
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| 15.1
| 65.5+10
| 99.2
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| greenrobinhood | 17.7
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| 18.9
| 73.5+10
| 120.1
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| hempie | 29.7
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| 26.9
| 75.5+10
| 142.1
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| Lancastrian | 41.7
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| 20.9
| 59.5+10
| 132.1
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| olympian95 | 47.7
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| 17.8
| 65.5+10
| 141.0
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| priceofdawn | 26.0 |
| 28.9
| 69.5+10
| 134.4
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| Right Leaning | 15.7
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| 17.1
| 75.5+10
| 118.3
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| robbienicoll | 17.7
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| 20.9
| 73.5+10
| 122.1
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| Robert Waller | 25.7
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| 16.9
| 73.5+10
| 126.1
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| Yellow Peril | 23.4
| +1 | 13.8
| 75.5+10
| 122.7
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| Total faults | 329.5
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| 248.6
| 831.8+120
| 1,529.9
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 5, 2018 23:54:39 GMT
I'm posting my predictions for next week now since I might not be able to do it next week.
Chichester:
Con 65
LD 20
Green 10
Lab 5
St Edmundsbury:
Ind 35
Lab 30
Con 25
LD 10
South Northants:
Con 65
LD 15
Lab 15
Green 5
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