Clever of Hempie uniquely to spot the full potential for the Lib Dem gain in Rogate. Like a number of us I thought about it, factoring in the County gain of the Midhurst division by the same candidate, but still thought that Rogate must be one of the most safely Tory bits of that division and pulled back from expecting lightning to strike twice. Wrong!
edit: I believe its actually true that if you have been struck by lightning once you are more likely to be struck a second time? Chichester Tories/LibDem predictors should have taken note
Highland, Perth and Kinross: Con 37, Lab 4, LD 5, Green 2, SNP 31, Ind (Bakyal) 5, Ind (Taylor) 16 - Con to win after transfers Lymm South, Warrington: Con 38, Lab 9, LD 46, UKIP 3, Green 4 Thatcham West, West Berkshire: Con 31, Lab 9, LD 56, UKIP 1, Green 3
Post by David Boothroyd on Apr 18, 2018 23:45:51 GMT
PERTH AND KINROSS Highland: SNP 32, C 28, Ind Taylor 24, L Dem 7, Lab 5, Ind Baykal 2, SGP 2. Conservative to win after distribution of preferences. WARRINGTON Lymm South: L Dem 43, C 39, Lab 11, UKIP 4, GP 3 WEST BERKSHIRE Thatcham West: L Dem 51, C 36, Lab 7, GP 4, UKIP 2
Perth & Kinross, Highland: Con 42,Lab 4, LD 8, Green 5, SNP 22, Ind Taylor 14, Ind Baykal 5 :Con to win on transfers Warrington, Lymm South: Con 38, Lab 18, LD 40, Green 2, UKIP 2 West Berkshire, Thatcham W: Con 38, Lab 9. LD 48, Green 3,UKIP 2
Perth & Kinross, Highland: Con 43,Lab 2, LD 7, Green 2, SNP 44, Ind Taylor 1, Ind Baykal 1 :Con to win on transfers Warrington, Lymm South: Con 55, Lab 34, LD 7, Green 3, UKIP 1 West Berkshire, Thatcham W: Con 55, Lab 17. LD 25, Green 2,UKIP 1
Perth and Kinross Highland Con 37, SNP 30, Ind Taylor 13, Lab 6, Ind Baykal 6, Lib Dem 5, Green 3 Warrington Lymm South Lib Dem 41, Con 35, Lab 18, Green 3, UKIP 3 West Berkshire, Thatcham West Lib Dem 43, Con 39, Lab 9, Green 4, UKIP 3
Perth & Kinross, Highland (1st preference votes): Con 38, SNP 26, Ind (Taylor) 13, Lab 7, LD 6, Ind (Baykal) 5, Green 5 (Con win on transfers) Warrington, Lymm South: LD 41, Con 38,Lab 14, Green 4, UKIP 3. West Berkshire, Thatcham West: LD 51, Con 38, Lab 6, Green 3, UKIP 2
Post by middleenglander on Apr 19, 2018 21:01:25 GMT
11 entries this week with no ajs whilst andrewp gets 2 additional faults for adding to only 98% in West Berkshire, Thatcham West.
Perth & Kinross, Highland: 9 Conservative ahead on first preferences, David Boothroyd & priceofdawn SNP ahead Warrington, Lymm South: 9 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority 1% (Robert Waller) to 15% (thebartonrule14), greenrobinhood & priceofdawn Conservative hold West Berkshire, Thatcham West: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majority 4% (andrewp) to 25% (robbienichol), priceofdawn Conservative hold
Yes, well done to: - Hempie for the week win - Yellow Peril for the overall monthly lead - Robbie for the spreadsheet!
.. and Robert himself of course for placing himself just fractionally behind the lead so he can mop up nicely and resume his accustomed place when the last 3 results for the month come in
and that I did predict! Haven't yet got Robbie's updated spreadsheet, let alone confirmation be middleenglander, but I make it Robert has just snuck ahead of me by a couple of points at the very last ( I somewhat underestimated the SNP, and that did for me). Reminds me of how the best runners save their best energy for the last dip at the line....