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Post by middleenglander on Apr 14, 2018 20:48:45 GMT
Chichester - Rogate - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 | since 2014 B | since 2011 | 2010 B result | since 2007 | Liberal Democrat | 444 | 55.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | +28.9% | Conservative | 319 | 40.1% | -27.3% | -31.2% | -51.0% | unopposed | -33.1% | Labour | 21 | 2.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -6.3% |
| from nowhere | Green | 12 | 1.5% | -18.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -12.9% | -28.8% |
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| Total votes | 796 |
| 53% | 166% | 73% | n / a | 84% |
Swing not meaningful apart from 2007: Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 31% Council now 40 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent St Edmundbury, St Olaves - Labour hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 365 | 58.6% | +27.0% | +30.8% | +21.8% | +25.8% | Conservative | 150 | 24.1% | -6.5% | -8.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent | 77 | 12.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 31 | 5.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Councillor |
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| -37.8% | -39.9% | -33.6% | -35.7% | Green |
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| -29.7% | -31.5% | Total votes | 623 |
| 28% | 30% | 50% | 53% |
Swing not particularly meaningful Council now 32 Conservative, 6 Independent, 2 Labour, 1 Green, 1 UKIP, 1 Independent aligned with Labour, 2 Vacant South Northamptonshire, Middleton Cheney - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | 2011 result | | Conservative | 391 | 42.1% | -21.6% | -18.5% | 2 unopposed | Liberal Democrat | 316 | 34.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Labour | 183 | 19.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Green | 38 | 4.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Independent * |
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| -36.2% | -39.3% |
| Total votes | 928 |
| 39% | 42% | n / a |
* Previous Conservative Councillor Swing not meaningful Council now 35 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent |
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 14, 2018 21:53:21 GMT
Although the Tories had a stinker in Rogate, I'm tempted to add "to nowhere" to the "from nowhere" in the Labour column for this particular election  I was very pleased with my party's result in Bury St Edmunds though & we didn't do badly at all in Middleton Cheney either. It's not easy for Labour to outpoll the Tories by well over 2 to 1 in any ward in Bury. In 2003 and 2007 there was a straight fight in St Olaves between 2 Labour and 2 Conservatives; votes were 70.2% Labour in 2003 and 66.5% in 2007 compared to a two party share of 70.9% on Thursday. According to Andrew Teale, Labour won 1 of the two Middleton Cheney seats in 1976, 1979, 1983 and 1987 and both in 1995 and 1999. |
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Post by andrewp on Apr 14, 2018 21:57:50 GMT
Although the Tories had a stinker in Rogate, I'm tempted to add "to nowhere" to the "from nowhere" in the Labour column for this particular election I was very pleased with my party's result in Bury St Edmunds though & we didn't do badly at all in Middleton Cheney either. It's not easy for Labour to outpoll the Tories by well over 2 to 1 in any ward in Bury. In 2003 and 2007 there was a straight fight in St Olaves between 2 Labour and 2 Conservatives; votes were 70.2% Labour in 2003 and 66.5% in 2007 compared to a two party share of 70.9% on Thursday. According to Andrew Teale, Labour won 1 of the two Middleton Cheney seats in 1976, 1979, 1983 and 1987 and both in 1995 and 1999. For Labour last week, I thought Bury St Edmunds was a very good result, Middleton Cheney wasn’t great. Rogate, well at least they stood. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 15, 2018 11:29:42 GMT
Middleton Cheney perhaps shows the perils of absenting yourself from the electoral fray for a significant period of time. You can't be confident that your previous strength will just return automatically, even if the national climate for your party is fairly benign.
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 15, 2018 12:49:52 GMT
Middleton Cheney perhaps shows the perils of absenting yourself from the electoral fray for a significant period of time. You can't be confident that your previous strength will just return automatically, even if the national climate for your party is fairly benign. Very much the same as the result in Chesham last week |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 15, 2018 12:53:04 GMT
Though we were quite a bit closer to winning that one (and must have a decent chance of doing so next year)
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 15, 2018 15:56:51 GMT
Is there any particular reason to believe our previous success in Middleton Cheney was down to it being particularly fruitful for Labour? The election results would be equally compatible with it being essentially a personal vote, and I can't see anything in particular about the village having an industrial heritage. Although of course it is in Northamptonshire, where that sort of thing used to be pretty common back in the day.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2018 16:23:01 GMT
Middleton Cheney perhaps shows the perils of absenting yourself from the electoral fray for a significant period of time. You can't be confident that your previous strength will just return automatically, even if the national climate for your party is fairly benign. Then again, Northamptonshire hasn’t exactly been an area where Labour have been strengthening recently |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 15, 2018 16:42:29 GMT
Is there any particular reason to believe our previous success in Middleton Cheney was down to it being particularly fruitful for Labour? The election results would be equally compatible with it being essentially a personal vote, and I can't see anything in particular about the village having an industrial heritage. Although of course it is in Northamptonshire, where that sort of thing used to be pretty common back in the day. Nothing I can think of - that area was properly agricultural rather than rural-industrial back in the old days. The village is basically part of Banbury o/c. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Apr 15, 2018 16:49:46 GMT
Banburyshire.
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Post by mattb on Apr 15, 2018 17:19:40 GMT
Yes. When I lived in Banbury (30 years ago now), the (female) Chair of Banbury Young Farmers, who I was quite well acquainted with, was from Middleton Cheney. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2018 20:22:39 GMT
Then again, Northamptonshire hasn’t exactly been an area where Labour have been strengthening recently true for much of the county, though Labour did quite well in Northampton South in particular last year and not badly in Northampton North either and in general the swings tended to be above average. It was unfortunate for Labour that the most notable exception was Corby where the swing required was the least I was in Corby on election day. It was difficult to know what was going on. Most of the campaign up to election day was mixed if growing largely more positive closer to the day. On the day we campaigned outside Beth Millers old school where the response waa just amazing. But as the day went on I dont think people felt that positive. But the result was a good one. The Labour total was larger than it had been since 2001 I think. |
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