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Post by greenhert on Apr 12, 2018 23:25:17 GMT
I believe the successful candidate is already the county councillor for the division that includes Rogate. None of the candidates gave addresses in the Rogate ward. I thoroughly recommend Andrew Teale's previews! You are correct, the division in question being Midhurst which was won by Kate O'Kelly last year. |
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Post by andrewp on Apr 13, 2018 6:30:12 GMT
The victorious candidate in Rogate has had a pretty good 12 months! 2 gains. We’ll have to wait and see whether that can be converted to many gains in the full council election.
Given that they had a candidate from outside a village against a Lib Dem who is prominent in the save the !ibrary group. I’m slightly surprised that the Tories held Middleton Cheney.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 13, 2018 6:55:51 GMT
A quick look back at historic results shows that Labour won Middleton Cheney ward in 1995 and 1999, before losing the 2 seats to a Conservative and an Independent in 2003, so they do have some history there.
In a different time, Labour would have been able to push the Tories, rather than the Lib Dem’s running them close.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2018 7:05:22 GMT
A quick look back at historic results shows that Labour won Middleton Cheney ward in 1995 and 1999, before losing the 2 seats to a Conservative and an Independent in 2003, so they do have some history there. In a different time, Labour would have been able to push the Tories, rather than the Lib Dem’s running them close. idk the area but it might be that there is a non tribal centre left anti conservative vote that collates around one party. We've discovered that in one ward which Labour never had a hope and the Lib Dems had a monopoly of that vote until 2014 |
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Post by andrewp on Apr 13, 2018 7:12:41 GMT
A quick look back at historic results shows that Labour won Middleton Cheney ward in 1995 and 1999, before losing the 2 seats to a Conservative and an Independent in 2003, so they do have some history there. In a different time, Labour would have been able to push the Tories, rather than the Lib Dem’s running them close. idk the area but it might be that there is a non tribal centre left anti conservative vote that collates around one party. We've discovered that in one ward which Labour never had a hope and the Lib Dems had a monopoly of that vote until 2014 Yes, the Conservatives actually got a similar percentage vote in Middleton Cheney ( held) as in Rogate ( lost). For the non tribals, it was more obvious who the best placed non Conservative candidate was in Rogate. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 13, 2018 7:26:49 GMT
A quick look back at historic results shows that Labour won Middleton Cheney ward in 1995 and 1999, before losing the 2 seats to a Conservative and an Independent in 2003, so they do have some history there. In a different time, Labour would have been able to push the Tories, rather than the Lib Dem’s running them close. idk the area but it might be that there is a non tribal centre left anti conservative vote that collates around one party. We've discovered that in one ward which Labour never had a hope and the Lib Dems had a monopoly of that vote until 2014 I think that is a thing in quite a few parts of the country. |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 13, 2018 7:52:42 GMT
idk the area but it might be that there is a non tribal centre left anti conservative vote that collates around one party. We've discovered that in one ward which Labour never had a hope and the Lib Dems had a monopoly of that vote until 2014 I think that is a thing in quite a few parts of the country. but I think it is also true that when this phenomenon is working well the Lib Dems are able to take it a bit further than most Labour or Green candidates could do. If the momentum is going that way, they are more likely to start eating in to the Conservative vote as well as hoovering up the anti-Conservative vote. There are plenty of Conservative voters who like to vote for a winner, but might baulk at voting Labour or even Green while they find switching to LD a little more respectable! I suspect a little of that was going on in Rogate. |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 13, 2018 8:02:16 GMT
We didn't want those seats anyway think you should try not wanting any seat where your vote starts at under, say, 70%... |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 13, 2018 10:05:10 GMT
I think that is a thing in quite a few parts of the country. but I think it is also true that when this phenomenon is working well the Lib Dems are able to take it a bit further than most Labour or Green candidates could do. If the momentum is going that way, they are more likely to start eating in to the Conservative vote as well as hoovering up the anti-Conservative vote. There are plenty of Conservative voters who like to vote for a winner, but might baulk at voting Labour or even Green while they find switching to LD a little more respectable! I suspect a little of that was going on in Rogate. Yes, I agree, but since 2010 we have been in a cycle where coalition lost us much of the anti-Tory vote, leading to poor results, leading to a perception that whether we are pro- or anti-Tory we aren't going to win anyway - hence the phenomenon @priceofdawn identifies whereby if we aren't the obvious candidate (e.g. Rogate) then either the vote splits, or Labour seizes the anti-Tory mantle, leaving us getting neither the non-tribal non-Tories (who go Labour or just maybe Green or Indy) nor the "non-tribal Conservatives" who get frightened back into the blue fold for fear of letting in the Bearded Baby Eating Bolsheviks. I think there is massive scope for us to improve if we get back in the game, but it will take lots of work to get back in. I'm impressed with what the local party has achieved here from what looks like a standing start. To be the "obvious" choice for the non-tribal non-Tory when both Labour and Greens are standing and for some years we haven't even stood is impressive and shows the importance of getting as many candidates as possible to stand, if only as that first step. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 13, 2018 10:09:44 GMT
These sort of by-election gains by the Lib Dems are common enough and even occurred in places during the coalition years. I wouldn't get too excited about this leading to large scale gains in the full council elections in areas like this, when their resources are more thinly spread
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 13, 2018 10:18:22 GMT
Well, I had a good go at making these sound interesting. As it turned out, the results *were* pretty interesting. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2018 11:27:29 GMT
but I think it is also true that when this phenomenon is working well the Lib Dems are able to take it a bit further than most Labour or Green candidates could do. If the momentum is going that way, they are more likely to start eating in to the Conservative vote as well as hoovering up the anti-Conservative vote. There are plenty of Conservative voters who like to vote for a winner, but might baulk at voting Labour or even Green while they find switching to LD a little more respectable! I suspect a little of that was going on in Rogate. Yes, I agree, but since 2010 we have been in a cycle where coalition lost us much of the anti-Tory vote, leading to poor results, leading to a perception that whether we are pro- or anti-Tory we aren't going to win anyway - hence the phenomenon @priceofdawn identifies whereby if we aren't the obvious candidate (e.g. Rogate) then either the vote splits, or Labour seizes the anti-Tory mantle, leaving us getting neither the non-tribal non-Tories (who go Labour or just maybe Green or Indy) nor the "non-tribal Conservatives" who get frightened back into the blue fold for fear of letting in the Bearded Baby Eating Bolsheviks. I think there is massive scope for us to improve if we get back in the game, but it will take lots of work to get back in. I'm impressed with what the local party has achieved here from what looks like a standing start. To be the "obvious" choice for the non-tribal non-Tory when both Labour and Greens are standing and for some years we haven't even stood is impressive and shows the importance of getting as many candidates as possible to stand, if only as that first step. The campaign is massive. The obvious centre left alternative is not determined by bar charts but doorstep conversations. If the Lib Dems decided to pick up where they left off then they'd win that vote back |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 13, 2018 11:42:17 GMT
These sort of by-election gains by the Lib Dems are common enough and even occurred in places during the coalition years. I wouldn't get too excited about this leading to large scale gains in the full council elections in areas like this, when their resources are more thinly spread I , would not disagree with that, actually. I for one would not expect any massive recovery on May 3rd - a few patches of advance maybe to offset other areas of continued loss. What the by-election gains tell us mainly is there is increasing potential for more by-election gains where the work is put in, and maybe that the post-coalition losses are not inevitably going to continue everywhere. I'm not sure by the way that the better performance in by-elections is altogether down to concentration of resources- it is in part, of course, but if you have a small committed team who can see an achievable objective, much can be done without a great pouring in of resources from outside. When the latter does happen its often more of symbolic importance than actually being responsible for the result. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 13, 2018 11:56:45 GMT
These sort of by-election gains by the Lib Dems are common enough and even occurred in places during the coalition years. I wouldn't get too excited about this leading to large scale gains in the full council elections in areas like this, when their resources are more thinly spread I , would not disagree with that, actually. I for one would not expect any massive recovery on May 3rd - a few patches of advance maybe to offset other areas of continued loss. What the by-election gains tell us mainly is there is increasing potential for more by-election gains where the work is put in, and maybe that the post-coalition losses are not inevitably going to continue everywhere. I'm not sure by the way that the better performance in by-elections is altogether down to concentration of resources- it is in part, of course, but if you have a small committed team who can see an achievable objective, much can be done without a great pouring in of resources from outside. When the latter does happen its often more of symbolic importance than actually being responsible for the result. In these small district wards one person prepared to put several hours per day in can easily win with no outside help if the other parties do not do much. In a large metropolitan ward where a single delivery can easily take 100 hours of person-time it is a different matter... There you need a local organisation (that needs constant tending) or lots of outside help to win. In my experience the number of people capable of keeping a local organisation going and planning a winning campaign is quite limited in all Parties |
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 13, 2018 12:32:53 GMT
Why do so many people rush to post the poll announcements from the rather hopeless Britain Elects group that can't even be bothered to get the actual figures?
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 13, 2018 13:52:01 GMT
I , would not disagree with that, actually. I for one would not expect any massive recovery on May 3rd - a few patches of advance maybe to offset other areas of continued loss. What the by-election gains tell us mainly is there is increasing potential for more by-election gains where the work is put in, and maybe that the post-coalition losses are not inevitably going to continue everywhere. I'm not sure by the way that the better performance in by-elections is altogether down to concentration of resources- it is in part, of course, but if you have a small committed team who can see an achievable objective, much can be done without a great pouring in of resources from outside. When the latter does happen its often more of symbolic importance than actually being responsible for the result. In these small district wards one person prepared to put several hours per day in can easily win with no outside help if the other parties do not do much. In a large metropolitan ward where a single delivery can easily take 100 hours of person-time it is a different matter... There you need a local organisation (that needs constant tending) or lots of outside help to win. In my experience the number of people capable of keeping a local organisation going and planning a winning campaign is quite limited in all Parties Yes indeed, in my post I was thinking mainly of small district wards, partly because that is what we were discussing anyway, but also that's where my experience mostly lies. Big metropolitan wards are clearly something else, and more difficult to turn round anyway though not impossible, pace Sunderland. Mind you, deeply rural district wards can also require the person-hours, when houses are half a mile apart, but you cannot think of using a bussed-in team for those anyway. |
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Post by andrew111 on Apr 13, 2018 14:25:39 GMT
Why do so many people rush to post the poll announcements from the rather hopeless Britain Elects group that can't even be bothered to get the actual figures? Mostly because even though Britain Elects often only post %, they do often do it before anyone else... Also if you want correct % change in Scottish by-elections you certainly don't want ALDC, who calculate them incorrectly despite being told they are doing so... |
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Post by robbienicoll on Apr 13, 2018 14:59:40 GMT
Why do so many people rush to post the poll announcements from the rather hopeless Britain Elects group that can't even be bothered to get the actual figures? Britain Elects were the first to get the figures and percentages for the first two declarations last night as evidenced by the guy who runs it literally posting them into this thread! |
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Apr 13, 2018 18:00:13 GMT
idk the area but it might be that there is a non tribal centre left anti conservative vote that collates around one party. We've discovered that in one ward which Labour never had a hope and the Lib Dems had a monopoly of that vote until 2014 I think that is a thing in quite a few parts of the country. It was like that when I used to live in Shropshire |
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 13, 2018 23:29:58 GMT
The Middleton Cheney result is a bit like the ward in Chesham - we used to hold it then didn't contest it for years. Both of these wards are at least credible outcomes but if we absent ourselves we can't be that surprised if voters get out of the habit if supporting us particularly when the areas are very blue at parliamentary level.
Still - something to work on both here and in Chesham.
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