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Post by sanders on Sept 19, 2024 7:04:26 GMT
Ample evidence that new voter registrations skew Democratic. The New York Times covered it. It means that Democrats are well-placed to win 'bellwether' (not my description) polities like Denton County, Texas and boost their chances in the state. Texas 2020 effectively had the same margin of victory for Trump as Georgia 2016 and we know what happened in GA just four years after 2016. FYI, Cruz got 50% in 2018 and only won by 2.57%. I'm biased because I believe Allred will win. Surely you can’t really believe Allred will win without the national party making much more of a push towards it? He's got the neocon endorsement from Liz Cheney sewn up. He's also running against one of the few Republican Senators who underperforms Trump, and Trump generally has done poorly in the Lone Star State (Romney won by 15, Trump won it by 9 and then won it by 5). I recognise I'm going out on a limb here.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 19, 2024 7:08:28 GMT
Surely you can’t really believe Allred will win without the national party making much more of a push towards it? He's got the neocon endorsement from Liz Cheney sewn up. He's also running against one of the few Republican Senators who underperforms Trump, and Trump generally has done poorly in the Lone Star State (Romney won by 15, Trump won it by 9 and then won it by 5). I recognise I'm going out on a limb here. I can’t see anything other than the more widely held belief that Senate control will come down to Montana
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Post by sanders on Sept 19, 2024 7:15:39 GMT
He's got the neocon endorsement from Liz Cheney sewn up. He's also running against one of the few Republican Senators who underperforms Trump, and Trump generally has done poorly in the Lone Star State (Romney won by 15, Trump won it by 9 and then won it by 5). I recognise I'm going out on a limb here. I can’t see anything other than the more widely held belief that Senate control will come down to Montana I wish I shared that optimism. To me, it seems Trump's margin (likely 15%+) will be too much to overcome. I hope I'm wrong on that. Funnily enough, Tester won by a bigger margin than Cruz in 2018, which speaks to two things 1) the unpopularity of the Keystone XL pipeline in MT; and 2) O'Rourke's phenomenal success in making so many inroads into Republicans' dominant position in Texas. For example, largely because of O'Rourke, Democrats won their first State House seat in Denton County for the first time since 1982. They got very close in many more seats in Collin, Dallas and Harris too.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 19, 2024 7:20:47 GMT
I can’t see anything other than the more widely held belief that Senate control will come down to Montana I wish I shared that optimism. To me, it seems Trump's margin (likely 15%+) will be too much to overcome. I hope I'm wrong on that. Sheehy certainly looks the favourite just now but Tester has the experience and electoral history where him pulling something off can’t be ruled out What I mean is whoever wins that probably wins the Senate majority (although West Virginia brings it to 50-50 assuming no other movement so then it comes down to who is Vice President)
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Post by sanders on Sept 19, 2024 7:24:48 GMT
I wish I shared that optimism. To me, it seems Trump's margin (likely 15%+) will be too much to overcome. I hope I'm wrong on that. Sheehy certainly looks the favourite just now but Tester has the experience and electoral history where him pulling something off can’t be ruled out What I mean is whoever wins that probably wins the Senate majority (although West Virginia brings it to 50-50 assuming no other movement so then it comes down to who is Vice President) True. It also depends how well Harris does in Montana more broadly. And of course, in 2020, we had an 18% delta between Joe Biden's win and Susan Collins' margin of victory in Maine. That could happen in MT. The 2020 results were disappointing though, with sitting governor Steve Bullock losing by 10% in his attempt to oust Steve Daines for the other Senate seat, and Republicans taking the governorship in an election that was not especially close.
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iain
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Post by iain on Sept 19, 2024 16:20:17 GMT
Another scandal seems to be brewing in North Carolina's gubernatorial race - Republican candidate (and complete lunatic) Mark Robinson has cancelled his campaign events and is travelling in person to CNN's HQ to give an in-person interview.
Mail ballots will be sent out from tomorrow.
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Post by cathyc on Sept 19, 2024 17:07:34 GMT
Another scandal seems to be brewing in North Carolina's gubernatorial race - Republican candidate (and complete lunatic) Mark Robinson has cancelled his campaign events and is travelling in person to CNN's HQ to give an in-person interview. Mail ballots will be sent out from tomorrow. The local press there are reporting that there is pressure on him to stand down - although it's not clear how heavy the pressure is or even if it's possible. I can't imagine he's being dragged to the CNN studios for an easy ride.
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Post by sanders on Sept 19, 2024 17:22:05 GMT
Another scandal seems to be brewing in North Carolina's gubernatorial race - Republican candidate (and complete lunatic) Mark Robinson has cancelled his campaign events and is travelling in person to CNN's HQ to give an in-person interview. Mail ballots will be sent out from tomorrow. Newswire saying it's "of a sexual nature" according to Politico. Mark Robinson is rivalling Doug Mastriano in terms of problematic swing state gubernatorial nominees.
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Sept 19, 2024 17:34:15 GMT
Apparently the rules say that he has got until close of business today to withdraw and any votes he gets on mail-out ballots that go out before he's replaced will go to his substitute. That's a very odd rule.
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Post by sanders on Sept 19, 2024 17:38:51 GMT
Apparently the rules say that he has got until close of business today to withdraw and any votes he gets on mail-out ballots that go out before he's replaced will go to his substitute. That's a very odd rule. Many of Trump's team want this. They worry Robinson sink Trump's chances. I'm inclined to believe they're correct. Robinson has been a shit show.
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Post by iain on Sept 19, 2024 18:42:42 GMT
Apparently the story is in relation to him saying things in online chats about peeping in women’s locker rooms while he was studying, liking transgender porn and wanting to own slaves.
To be honest, it’s not really any worse than other stories that have come out about him.
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 19, 2024 20:45:54 GMT
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Post by cathyc on Sept 19, 2024 20:58:55 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Sept 19, 2024 21:01:39 GMT
That certainly is quite something
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 19, 2024 21:06:04 GMT
To be honest I thought he might have done something really bad, such as: a) rape a woman in a department store; b) co-ordinate a violent coup; c) steal/hide top secret US intelligence; d) cheat on his wife; e) extort a US ally for military aid; or f) rough up a worker at Arlington Cemetery. But instead it’s just a pro-KKK Nazi transgender porn fetish.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 19, 2024 21:08:56 GMT
To be honest I thought he might have done something really bad, such as: a) rape a woman in a department store; b) co-ordinate a violent coup; c) steal/hide top secret US intelligence; d) cheat on his wife; e) extort a US ally for military aid; or f) rough up a worker at Arlington Cemetery. But instead it’s just a pro-KKK Nazi transgender porn fetish. Even Trump’s biggest supporters just can’t give off that same teflon feel that he does
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 19, 2024 21:22:49 GMT
Some new Senate polling, including showing Ted Cruz losing. Just one poll, etc etc (and tbh I’ve no idea if this is a reliable polling company or not).
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