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Post by timmullen on Sept 4, 2024 17:38:07 GMT
riccimarsh is indeed correct, the 119th Congress is gavelled in on 3rd January and the Counting of the EC Votes is on 6th January. I was incorrect. Is that also when congress would vote in the event of an EC tie/no majority EC or could that be sooner? Can’t be sooner as it’s not a result before the count; I don’t think there’s a fixed date for that as it can depend on if there are any challenges to a State’s results heard by the Senate; four years ago, because the majority of the Republican caucus deemed the objections without merit, and because a lot of the planned objections didn’t happen because of the riots, Schumer was able to get away with only allowing a couple of hours debate, but if a challenge was deemed to have merit, or more States were challenged, the debate may need longer.
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Post by sanders on Sept 4, 2024 18:10:20 GMT
It seems Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno has finally led in a poll against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. He’s up about 46% to 45%. The race reminds me of Maine in 2020 and has the potential to replicate that race with the state going decisively one way at the presidential level and another way at the Senate level.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 4, 2024 18:23:07 GMT
I think Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno has finally led in a poll against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. He’s up about 46% to 45%. This race reminds me of Maine in 2020 and has the potential to replicate that race with the state going decisively one way at the presidential level and another way at the Senate level. The GOP establishment should keep a lot of focus on gaining the Senate, even if Harris wins and takes back the House it would be significant if they have control of the chamber that decides her cabinet and judicial nominees
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Post by sanders on Sept 4, 2024 18:24:23 GMT
I think Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno has finally led in a poll against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. He’s up about 46% to 45%. This race reminds me of Maine in 2020 and has the potential to replicate that race with the state going decisively one way at the presidential level and another way at the Senate level. The GOP establishment should keep a lot of focus on gaining the Senate, even if Harris wins and takes back the House it would be significant if they have control of the chamber that decides her cabinet and judicial nominees Particularly as Clarence Thomas is 76.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 4, 2024 18:29:13 GMT
The GOP establishment should keep a lot of focus on gaining the Senate, even if Harris wins and takes back the House it would be significant if they have control of the chamber that decides her cabinet and judicial nominees Particularly as Clarence Thomas is 76. That would make for an interesting stand off, realistically with how polarised things now are and the bitterness behind recent processes there’s no way a Senate controlled by the opposite party will confirm a President’s Supreme Court nominee now Even if there were enough people willing to pass a final confirmation vote the process simply wouldn’t be allowed to even get started
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Post by sanders on Sept 4, 2024 18:37:18 GMT
Particularly as Clarence Thomas is 76. That would make for an interesting stand off, realistically with how polarised things now are and the bitterness behind recent processes there’s no way a Senate controlled by the opposite party will confirm a President’s Supreme Court nominee now Even if there were enough people willing to pass a final confirmation vote the process simply wouldn’t be allowed to even get started Lisa Murkowski would be the most powerful person in D.C.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 4, 2024 18:41:44 GMT
That would make for an interesting stand off, realistically with how polarised things now are and the bitterness behind recent processes there’s no way a Senate controlled by the opposite party will confirm a President’s Supreme Court nominee now Even if there were enough people willing to pass a final confirmation vote the process simply wouldn’t be allowed to even get started Lisa Murkowski would be the most powerful person in D.C. If you go by the Garland situation that would be avoided by the majority leader simply refusing to put the nomination through hearings etc, if that had gone as far as a confirmation vote in 2016 then there were a few vulnerable GOP incumbents that would have had a decision to make
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 4, 2024 18:43:03 GMT
It seems Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno has finally led in a poll against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. He’s up about 46% to 45%. The race reminds me of Maine in 2020 and has the potential to replicate that race with the state going decisively one way at the presidential level and another way at the Senate level. Have you got a link to that? 538, The Hill, even RCP don't have that listed. ETA: OK, it's supposedly an internal poll for Moreno, which hasn't actually been released by the campaign, just boosted on TwiX by a random idiot from Florida. Can you just shut up with this garbage nonsense? Post something that actually means something.
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Post by sanders on Sept 4, 2024 18:49:33 GMT
It seems Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno has finally led in a poll against Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. He’s up about 46% to 45%. The race reminds me of Maine in 2020 and has the potential to replicate that race with the state going decisively one way at the presidential level and another way at the Senate level. Have you got a link to that? 538, The Hill, even RCP don't have that listed. Bugger it’s an internal - fishy then. I don’t see Brown losing this. Apologies for sharing a GOP internal poll. It’s just notable for Moreno leading.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 4, 2024 18:50:03 GMT
Have you got a link to that? 538, The Hill, even RCP don't have that listed. Bugger it’s an internal. Fishy then. Shut up until you think.
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Post by sanders on Sept 4, 2024 18:51:14 GMT
Lisa Murkowski would be the most powerful person in D.C. If you go by the Garland situation that would be avoided by the majority leader simply refusing to put the nomination through hearings etc, if that had gone as far as a confirmation vote in 2016 then there were a few vulnerable GOP incumbents that would have had a decision to make How long could they keep it open for? What if they just don’t nominate anyone? I think Murkowski could be persuaded because she might need Democrats in the general election in 2028. This assumes she runs again. I’m sure she voted for Ketanji Brown Jackson in 2022.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 4, 2024 19:05:01 GMT
Bugger it’s an internal. Fishy then. Shut up until you think. I think there are politer ways of putting that James.
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Post by sanders on Sept 4, 2024 19:12:05 GMT
Sherrod Brown isn’t losing to Moreno. Moreno is a Trump-backed fake populist. Sherrod Brown is the real deal. Moreno wins - I’ll eat my hat.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 4, 2024 19:20:45 GMT
I think there are politer ways of putting that James. I'm sure you're right.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 4, 2024 19:36:30 GMT
Let’s keep civil guys, there’s enough about UK politics that causes fall out on here without us getting too heated over US politics (as interesting as they are)
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,882
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 4, 2024 19:55:12 GMT
Don't underestimate what a Trump double defeat would do to the GOP.
Many forget the whimper that Trump's second campaign started with, only being galvanised because certain influential individuals either bought into it wholesale or fancied themselves as the heir to Trump therefore giving it rocket fuel.
Trump losing gives them the chance to reset and to tack away from the crazies (and with the senate moderates being massively galvanised). While much of the two federal caucuses might still be significantly populated by wide-eyed loons, the GOP's who have tagged along through fear have got a lot less to worry about as Trump has no real teeth anymore.
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Post by sanders on Sept 5, 2024 8:01:27 GMT
Trump has abandoned the Granite State. New Hampshire Governor likely goes Democrat.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 8:11:48 GMT
Trump has abandoned the Granite State. New Hampshire Governor likely goes Democrat. Possibly although New Hampshire has shown a tendency to vote differently at state level
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Post by sanders on Sept 5, 2024 9:01:32 GMT
Trump has abandoned the Granite State. New Hampshire Governor likely goes Democrat. Possibly although New Hampshire has shown a tendency to vote differently at state level Republicans won unified control in 2020. I think Dobbs harms the GOP. 2016 wasn't that great for ticket-splitting. Sununu won by two per cent. His name almost certainly enabled that. Republicans have had some shitty results. They can't win either House seat. They're losing the state houses too. Governorship is all that's left now. They hold that because of Sununu. He could run for Senate (2026). That might be an open seat. However, Dobbs could loom large then. SCOTUS votes will definitely loom large. New Hampshire is not that swingy. Trump almost won it - it's true. It was more Hillary Clinton's anti-charisma. 2000 was a narrow Bush win. Before that, go back to 1988. It's changed hugely since the 1980s. The GOP has changed hugely too.
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Post by sanders on Sept 5, 2024 9:22:07 GMT
Senatorially, Montana may vote right of Texas. Texas is more expensive for campaigning. Montana is far cheaper for that. Plus Tester is the sitting Senator Allred doesn't seem like a priority. Despite Ted Cruz's unpopularity in TX. Sam Brown's Nevada deficit is ... interesting. Heller only lost 2018 by 5%. Rosen's doing something right.
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