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Post by sanders on Aug 14, 2024 14:29:09 GMT
I am running in two elections. As far as I am aware, neither of those elections are in the US, so are not relevant to this thread! American Oxford graduates can vote though. So the Chancellor election may count!
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 14, 2024 14:43:58 GMT
MN-5 primary - Ilhan Omar wins 56-43. She won by 2% in 2022. This was an objectively solid result. Thank goodness for that progressive victory. Still, the Squad are down two. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush lost. Does AIPAC hate people of colour? Genuine question looking at recent spending. They must overturn Citizens United ASAP. AIPAC spending bolsters pro-Palestine feeling, IMHO. Too much big money in elections. It never had to be so. And no, it's not just AIPAC. They are pretty infamous spenders, however. The last blockbuster primary's next week. Jen Perelman vs Debbie Wasserman-Schultz in FL-25. Jen got 30% in 2020's primary. I've seen her narrowing the gap. A man can dream, I suppose. It'd be excellent if DWS loses. Fingers and toes are all crossed. I think DWS fucked Bernie over. She was in DNC leadership once. Supposedly, she rigged the primary debate. She gave Hillary the questions apparently. I saw this tweet last night that could at least offer a partial explanation as to why Bowman and Bush were more vulnerable to primary challengers that other progressive house members: x.com/EmmaVigeland/status/1823431182236967242To save you clicking: they lacked institutional State party support based on previous experience as State Representatives, which the likes of Omar, Tlaib, and Summer Lee have.
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Post by sanders on Aug 14, 2024 15:54:39 GMT
Emerson poll has Jon Tester losing. They are a well-ranked polling outfit. Trump winning by 15 - Tester's toast?
2018 was Tester's first majority win. 2006 and 2012 were plurality victories. It's a tough ask for him.
Montana narrowly backed Clinton in 1992. Obama did get close in 2008.
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Post by aargauer on Aug 14, 2024 16:10:40 GMT
I'm not routing for anyone in the US in particular, other than for Tester to lose.
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Post by sanders on Aug 15, 2024 2:19:14 GMT
Oil pipelines likely saved Tester's bacon. Native Americans came out in droves. I think he's done for actually. Winning by 3% amid a 'wave'. 'Twas GOP before (Senator Conrad Burns). Burns lost in 2006 amid scandal. Go Google the Jack Abramoff scandal. I think that's what it was. Burns wasn't ever all that popular. He won quite narrowly in 2000. Bush carried Montana heavily that year. He even won Missoula, I recall. So the warning signs were there. Burns died back in 2016, alas. He loved wearing big cowboy hats. Burns also had these huge glasses. I have deep admiration for ‘em.
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Post by timmullen on Aug 15, 2024 8:52:34 GMT
Oil pipelines likely saved Tester's bacon. Native Americans came out in droves. I think he's done for actually. Winning by 3% amid a 'wave'. 'Twas GOP before (Senator Conrad Burns). Burns lost in 2006 amid scandal. Go Google the Jack Abramoff scandal. I think that's what it was. Burns wasn't ever all that popular. He won quite narrowly in 2000. Bush carried Montana heavily that year. He even won Missoula, I recall. So the warning signs were there. Burns died back in 2016, alas. He loved wearing big cowboy hats. Burns also had these huge glasses. I have deep admiration for ‘em. It was a split delegation though, Burns’ fellow Senator was Max Baucus who advanced his retirement to become Obama’s Ambassador to China when Gary Locke resigned.
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Post by sanders on Aug 15, 2024 9:23:33 GMT
Oil pipelines likely saved Tester's bacon. Native Americans came out in droves. I think he's done for actually. Winning by 3% amid a 'wave'. 'Twas GOP before (Senator Conrad Burns). Burns lost in 2006 amid scandal. Go Google the Jack Abramoff scandal. I think that's what it was. Burns wasn't ever all that popular. He won quite narrowly in 2000. Bush carried Montana heavily that year. He even won Missoula, I recall. So the warning signs were there. Burns died back in 2016, alas. He loved wearing big cowboy hats. Burns also had these huge glasses. I have deep admiration for ‘em. It was a split delegation though, Burns’ fellow Senator was Max Baucus who advanced his retirement to become Obama’s Ambassador to China when Gary Locke resigned. Max Baucus should never have retired.
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Post by timmullen on Aug 15, 2024 12:03:40 GMT
It was a split delegation though, Burns’ fellow Senator was Max Baucus who advanced his retirement to become Obama’s Ambassador to China when Gary Locke resigned. Max Baucus should never have retired. I suspect he didn’t see a path to victory against Daines.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 15, 2024 12:35:49 GMT
2014 is still by far the best Senate election cycle the GOP have had over a while, 9 gains and no losses themselves
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Post by sanders on Aug 16, 2024 1:36:44 GMT
2014 is still by far the best Senate election cycle the GOP have had over a while, 9 gains and no losses themselves They almost won Virginia's Senate seat! It was a different time then. Virginia's 10th was still safe GOP. Very Democratic, elitist white-collar seat now. We did see signs of problems. In 2014, Eric Cantor got walloped. Lost his primary to David Brat. Cantor was 30% up in polls. He outspent Brat 40-1 as well. He was the House Majority Leader. First Majority Leader felled since 1899. The office was created in 1899. Colorado voting GOP feels very nostalgic. Rust belt was good for Democrats though. Michigan GOP had a meltdown IIRC. Terri Lynn Land was a disaster. Peters was very fortunate that year. He was a good candidate though. Republicans couldn't beat Al Franken either. Turnout was very low in 2014. That's why the GOP smashed it. It's generally always like that too. Lower turnout helps them hugely. It's why they can't win Minnesota. MN habitually has the highest turnouts. Back to 2024, Harris is now PaddyPower's favourite in North Carolina, which means I think the governor race is likely going to Attorney-General Josh Stein (D). Of course Democrats have won all but one Tar Heel State gubernatorial election since 1988, but you'd expect that to have diminished given partisan polarisation.
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Post by batman on Aug 16, 2024 6:45:26 GMT
Could an admin take down the poll here please?
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Post by sanders on Aug 17, 2024 1:48:28 GMT
Biden won Washington by 19%. Yet this will likely be RvR. Jungle primaries are a funny thing.
How did Dems fuck this up? JHB will likely win in November. As she was a Congresswoman 2011-23.
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 20, 2024 9:13:35 GMT
In 2024, Democrats have no nominee on the Alabama ballot for U.S. House in three of the state’s seven districts. That is the smallest number of Democrats running for U.S. House in any Alabama general election since 2010. Alabama has had seven districts starting in 1971.Because of Alabama’s severe ballot access laws, there are no minor party or independent candidates on the ballot for U.S. House this year. As a result, in three districts, there is only one name on the ballot, the name of the Republican nominee.
In 2022, the Alabama Libertarian Party managed to qualify, and ran candidates in all seven districts, who received a total of 74,920 votes. As a result of the Alabama Libertarian effort in 2022, there were no districts with only one name on the ballot.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 20, 2024 9:22:48 GMT
In 2024, Democrats have no nominee on the Alabama ballot for U.S. House in three of the state’s seven districts. That is the smallest number of Democrats running for U.S. House in any Alabama general election since 2010. Alabama has had seven districts starting in 1971.Because of Alabama’s severe ballot access laws, there are no minor party or independent candidates on the ballot for U.S. House this year. As a result, in three districts, there is only one name on the ballot, the name of the Republican nominee. In 2022, the Alabama Libertarian Party managed to qualify, and ran candidates in all seven districts, who received a total of 74,920 votes. As a result of the Alabama Libertarian effort in 2022, there were no districts with only one name on the ballot. However the court forced redrawing of the maps to create another majority black district will likely see the Democrats gain a second seat in the Alabama delegation
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Post by stb12 on Aug 21, 2024 8:44:02 GMT
Matt Gaetz comfortably saw off a Kevin McCarthy backed primary challenger. Looks like Bob Good will be the only success of his revenge tour
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,261
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Post by iain on Aug 21, 2024 18:01:29 GMT
Fantastic result for Mary Peltola, the Democratic Congresswoman for Alaska-At Large, in the jungle primary last night. She got over 50% of the vote (she was under 40% at this stage in 2022 as the sole Democrat) and now looks a clear favourite for re-election in November, despite her district's strongly Republican lean.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 21, 2024 19:15:23 GMT
Fantastic result for Mary Peltola, the Democratic Congresswoman for Alaska-At Large, in the jungle primary last night. She got over 50% of the vote (she was under 40% at this stage in 2022 as the sole Democrat) and now looks a clear favourite for re-election in November, despite her district's strongly Republican lean. Two Republicans advanced with a pretty even vote like the last time as well, even with the preference system the vote will still be too split to give them a chance considering Peltola’s strength, it really would need only one major Republican in the race for there to be any chance
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 21, 2024 21:54:49 GMT
The Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v Wade and return authority on this issue to the states was the correct decision. And it will BTW result in many states voting for liberal abortion laws and also for liberal politicians. Eight abortion-related ballot measures have been approved for this November, in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, New York, Nevada and South Dakota. Details of each measure can be found here: ballotpedia.org/2023_and_2024_abortion-related_ballot_measuresAn abortion initiative is now also on the ballot in Montana in November: ballotpedia.org/2023_and_2024_abortion-related_ballot_measuresThis might boost turnout a little amongst those who support female reproductive autonomy, so may be of slight help to Tester in his re-election bid?? I still think it’s a very long shot though.
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Post by timmullen on Aug 21, 2024 22:23:56 GMT
An abortion initiative is now also on the ballot in Montana in November: ballotpedia.org/2023_and_2024_abortion-related_ballot_measuresThis might boost turnout a little amongst those who support female reproductive autonomy, so may be of slight help to Tester in his re-election bid?? I still think it’s a very long shot though. Not the greatest pollster, but Rasmussen were the last to publish a Montana senate poll and had Tester +7; slightly high I’d imagine, but both Sabato’s Center for Politics and The Cook Political Report are both placing it in the tossup category.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 21, 2024 23:05:36 GMT
An abortion initiative is now also on the ballot in Montana in November: ballotpedia.org/2023_and_2024_abortion-related_ballot_measuresThis might boost turnout a little amongst those who support female reproductive autonomy, so may be of slight help to Tester in his re-election bid?? I still think it’s a very long shot though. Not the greatest pollster, but Rasmussen were the last to publish a Montana senate poll and had Tester +7; slightly high I’d imagine, but both Sabato’s Center for Politics and The Cook Political Report are both placing it in the tossup category. Actually Rasmussen have Sheehy up by seven (not unusual for them to favour the GOP of course), before that there was an RMG Research poll that had Tester up by five but the average seems to be Sheehy +5 There’s been a lack of non-partisan polling so far overall, I don’t think Tester can be ruled out but he does face some fight and will need to persuade a good chunk of Trump voters to split their ticket, which is becoming much less common in general
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