sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 8:28:07 GMT
I didn't know that about Slotkin. Either way, Democratic hold. It's quite something that Republicans haven't won a Michigan Senate seat since *checks notes* 1994! Hill also claimed last year that AIPAC had offered him a substantial amount of money ($20 million?) to drop out of the Senate race and challenge Rashida Tlaib instead. I remember that! I think the usual suspects covered that suggestion (by usual suspects I mean Secular Talk, Breaking Points, and the Rational National ). It's good to see, and you don't have to oppose AIPAC spending to agree with this point, politicians rejecting vast sums of cash from what are arguably foreign agents, IMO.
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Post by timmullen on Aug 8, 2024 8:32:08 GMT
Hill also claimed last year that AIPAC had offered him a substantial amount of money ($20 million?) to drop out of the Senate race and challenge Rashida Tlaib instead. I remember that! I think the usual suspects covered that suggestion (by usual suspects I mean Secular Talk, Breaking Points, and the Rational National). The article I found The Hill were claiming credit for breaking the story (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4323917-democratic-senate-candidate-declined-offer-challenge-tlaib/)
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 8:38:12 GMT
I remember that! I think the usual suspects covered that suggestion (by usual suspects I mean Secular Talk, Breaking Points, and the Rational National). The article I found The Hill were claiming credit for breaking the story (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4323917-democratic-senate-candidate-declined-offer-challenge-tlaib/) By The Hill do we mean The Hill Harper or the D.C. based rag?
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Post by stb12 on Aug 8, 2024 22:52:33 GMT
From the admittedly limited polling so far Montana looks like the GOP’s best Senate pick up opportunity (West Virginia aside)
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 9, 2024 1:43:20 GMT
From the admittedly limited polling so far Montana looks like the GOP’s best Senate pick up opportunity (West Virginia aside) Emerson are okay I guess. 538 ranks them 9th, so not as a good as, say, Marquette University Law School. I do entertain your general point, and my forecast has the Republicans taking Montana and West Virginia, while the Democrats win Texas, so that we go back to a 50-50 Senate. Sheehy is better than Rosendale. It's tough to see Tester winning a state that last voted Democratic for President in *checks notes* 1992, while the Mountain State last gave its Electoral Votes to Dems in 1996. Still, Susan Collins managed to win Maine which last voted Republican statewide at the presidential level in 1988! That year, George H. W. Bush won New England.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 9, 2024 7:15:20 GMT
From the admittedly limited polling so far Montana looks like the GOP’s best Senate pick up opportunity (West Virginia aside) Emerson are okay I guess. 538 ranks them 9th, so not as a good as, say, Marquette University Law School. I do entertain your general point, and my forecast has the Republicans taking Montana and West Virginia, while the Democrats win Texas, so that we go back to a 50-50 Senate. Sheehy is better than Rosendale. It's tough to see Tester winning a state that last voted Democratic for President in *checks notes* 1992, while the Mountain State last gave its Electoral Votes to Dems in 1996. Still, Susan Collins managed to win Maine which last voted Republican statewide at the presidential level in 1988! That year, George H. W. Bush won New England. Sheehy does have the advantage of having avoided a bruising competitive primary and has had the GOP leadership behind him from early on, Bernie Moreno hasn’t had that in Ohio But as I said both races seem to have had fairly limited polling so far which I find a bit surprising?
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 14, 2024 2:41:46 GMT
MN-5 primary - Ilhan Omar wins 56-43. She won by 2% in 2022. This was an objectively solid result. Thank goodness for that progressive victory. Still, the Squad are down two. Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush lost. Does AIPAC hate people of colour? Genuine question looking at recent spending. They must overturn Citizens United ASAP. AIPAC spending bolsters pro-Palestine feeling, IMHO. Too much big money in elections. It never had to be so. And no, it's not just AIPAC. They are pretty infamous spenders, however.
The last blockbuster primary's next week. Jen Perelman vs Debbie Wasserman-Schultz in FL-25. Jen got 30% in 2020's primary. I've seen her narrowing the gap. A man can dream, I suppose. It'd be excellent if DWS loses. Fingers and toes are all crossed. I think DWS fucked Bernie over. She was in DNC leadership once. Supposedly, she rigged the primary debate. She gave Hillary the questions apparently.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 14, 2024 9:40:45 GMT
Very good chance that a President Harris administration would have to deal with a GOP controlled Senate for the first couple of years which would be interesting in terms of dealing with judicial and cabinet nominees
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Post by stb12 on Aug 14, 2024 9:45:36 GMT
On the other hand Moreno still can’t seem to get ahead of Brown in Ohio
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 14, 2024 9:59:16 GMT
Very good chance that a President Harris administration would have to deal with a GOP controlled Senate for the first couple of years which would be interesting in terms of dealing with judicial and cabinet nominees No rankings for this particular pollster. Why did you post these results? We know nothing about its provenance. I think Tester goes down, however.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 14, 2024 10:05:26 GMT
Very good chance that a President Harris administration would have to deal with a GOP controlled Senate for the first couple of years which would be interesting in terms of dealing with judicial and cabinet nominees No rankings for this particular pollster. Why did you post these results? We know nothing about its provenance. I think Tester goes down, however. Because I wanted to, I do apologise for not asking your permission before doing so
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 14, 2024 10:12:27 GMT
No rankings for this particular pollster. Why did you post these results? We know nothing about its provenance. I think Tester goes down, however. Because I wanted to, I do apologise for not asking your permission before doing so Fine, but they're a bad pollster. We should try to use A/B ones. You can find the 538 rankings. I'll let you off this time!
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Post by stb12 on Aug 14, 2024 10:26:24 GMT
Not that I need to explain myself but I posted to potentially create discussion (as a forum is for) and for such a crucial Senate race there’s been limited polling up until now
Talking about the reliability of the pollster is a valid discussion point, but it can be done without irritating arrogance
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Post by timmullen on Aug 14, 2024 10:33:08 GMT
No rankings for this particular pollster. Why did you post these results? We know nothing about its provenance. I think Tester goes down, however. Because I wanted to, I do apologise for not asking your permission before doing so To be fair to sanders they don’t appear to be ranked by either 538, Real Clear Politics or Nate Silver’s new personal rating chart, and seem only to work with right-of-centre/MAGA clients. They would seem very low on the credibility scale consequently. There are so many Mickey Mouse pollsters springing up that it would seem good practice here to either only use a pollster rated by 538 or RCP (which is similar to only using British Polling Council members in the UK) and/or including their rating or lack thereof when posting a poll.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 14, 2024 10:40:11 GMT
Because I wanted to, I do apologise for not asking your permission before doing so To be fair to sanders they don’t appear to be ranked by either 538, Real Clear Politics or Nate Silver’s new personal rating chart, and seem only to work with right-of-centre/MAGA clients. They would seem very low on the credibility scale consequently. There are so many Mickey Mouse pollsters springing up that it would seem good practice here to either only use a pollster rated by 538 or RCP (which is similar to only using British Polling Council members in the UK) and/or including their rating or lack thereof when posting a poll. To echo what timmullen has said, there has been an informal agreement on this thread and the Presidential election thread that we generally like to use Likely Voters and get our polls from A and B ranked outfits. Others are welcome to submit their polls, but if it's one of the better ones, it's good to identify that so that posters can consider that, especially since I know there are people on this website who bet on election outcomes, on both sides of the pond.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 14, 2024 10:45:31 GMT
Because I wanted to, I do apologise for not asking your permission before doing so To be fair to sanders they don’t appear to be ranked by either 538, Real Clear Politics or Nate Silver’s new personal rating chart, and seem only to work with right-of-centre/MAGA clients. They would seem very low on the credibility scale consequently. There are so many Mickey Mouse pollsters springing up that it would seem good practice here to either only use a pollster rated by 538 or RCP (which is similar to only using British Polling Council members in the UK) and/or including their rating or lack thereof when posting a poll. I don’t personally post a lot of polls, I came across it and as I mentioned the Montana Senate race doesn’t seem to have had a lot of polling, it came from an X account that posts polls from pretty much everyone Pointing out that it’s probably unreliable is a totally valid discussion point as I said but I respectfully disagree that it means there should be some sort of ban on them being posted or a disclaimer required
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Post by stb12 on Aug 14, 2024 10:47:11 GMT
To be fair to sanders they don’t appear to be ranked by either 538, Real Clear Politics or Nate Silver’s new personal rating chart, and seem only to work with right-of-centre/MAGA clients. They would seem very low on the credibility scale consequently. There are so many Mickey Mouse pollsters springing up that it would seem good practice here to either only use a pollster rated by 538 or RCP (which is similar to only using British Polling Council members in the UK) and/or including their rating or lack thereof when posting a poll. To echo what timmullen has said, there has been an informal agreement on this thread and the Presidential election thread that we generally like to use Likely Voters and get our polls from A and B ranked outfits. Others are welcome to submit their polls, but if it's one of the better ones, it's good to identify that so that posters can consider that, especially since I know there are people on this website who bet on election outcomes, on both sides of the pond. Thankfully you nor anyone else actually owns these threads, as much as you do like taking them over across the forum
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 14, 2024 10:57:51 GMT
To echo what timmullen has said, there has been an informal agreement on this thread and the Presidential election thread that we generally like to use Likely Voters and get our polls from A and B ranked outfits. Others are welcome to submit their polls, but if it's one of the better ones, it's good to identify that so that posters can consider that, especially since I know there are people on this website who bet on election outcomes, on both sides of the pond. Thankfully you nor anyone else actually owns these threads, as much as you do like taking them over across the forum I am running in two elections.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 14, 2024 14:20:56 GMT
Really? Maybe you should have said
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 14, 2024 14:23:34 GMT
Thankfully you nor anyone else actually owns these threads, as much as you do like taking them over across the forum I am running in two elections. As far as I am aware, neither of those elections are in the US, so are not relevant to this thread!
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