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Post by jamesdoyle on Jul 26, 2024 13:01:04 GMT
NJ isn't lacking in older, experienced Dems who would be happy to caretake the seat for a few months to end their career as a US Senator. Or he could really go off piste and appoint The Garden State’s favourite son, Bruce Springsteen! Nah, Springsteen would want to get elected first - he's Born to Run.
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Post by sanders on Jul 26, 2024 19:30:03 GMT
Phil Murphy should appoint Phil Murphy
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Post by timmullen on Jul 26, 2024 20:15:31 GMT
According to the New York Times the four candidates being considered are Rep Bonnie Watson Coleman, Lt Gov Tahesha Way, former NJ Secretary of State Nina Mitchell Wells whose husband is said to be a mentor to both Corey Booker and Hakeem Jeffries and his former Chief of Staff Frank Helmy who has worked in the Senate offices of both Booker and the late Frank Lautenberg.
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Post by sanders on Aug 7, 2024 3:45:17 GMT
Squad member Cori Bush has been defeated in Missouri. edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/missouri/democratic-party/us-house-district-1. Well done to those who called this one. AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee) committed to spend $100m to oust the Squad and its working. There are other reasons Cori Bush lost, but outside spending has played a role. I don't agree with all of this, but $9 million dollars to remove one incumbent is a fuck tonne of cash, objectively. I do agree with Jen about corporate money and I hope the Supreme Court strikes down Citizens United v FEC (2010) in my lifetime. My beef is, of course, not with AIPAC specifically, but they were involved here.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,085
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Post by mboy on Aug 7, 2024 7:42:01 GMT
Wonderful news ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) November could see both Trump and The Squad beaten, fingers crossed!
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Post by sanders on Aug 7, 2024 7:54:51 GMT
Wonderful news ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) November could see both Trump and The Squad beaten, fingers crossed! On the Democrat side, the only interesting primaries left are Minnesota’s 5th and Florida’s 25th. Ilhan Omar barely got by last time so she’s in the fight of her life to hold MN-5. IIRC, some FL polling has Jen Perelman in the low 40s against veteran Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz. It isn’t really possible for The Squad to be beaten in totality. AOC isn’t losing NY-14, Casar isn’t losing TX-35, Delia Ramirez isn’t going anywhere either. Then you have Rashida Tlaib in Michigan, Ayanna Pressley in MA-7, and Summer Lee in PA-12. I very much doubt any one of them could lose a general election. What you can say is that the Squad gets pared back to their pre-2022 strength in numerical terms.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,085
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Post by mboy on Aug 7, 2024 8:07:10 GMT
AOC is barely in the Squad these days. She wisely detached herself from their antisemitism because she wants to be a senator.
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Post by timmullen on Aug 7, 2024 10:02:27 GMT
It’s also worth pointing out that Bush had seemingly lost a lot of her previous local party support by voting against Biden’s infrastructure bill, but also having one of the poorest voting records of “fit and healthy” Democrats, and Bell ultimately successfully campaigned on being a team player in what’s likely to be another tight House whichever party wins control.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 7, 2024 10:08:59 GMT
It’s also worth pointing out that Bush had seemingly lost a lot of her previous local party support by voting against Biden’s infrastructure bill, but also having one of the poorest voting records of “fit and healthy” Democrats, and Bell ultimately successfully campaigned on being a team player in what’s likely to be another tight House whichever party wins control. Also, Bell is still a liberal.
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Post by adlai52 on Aug 7, 2024 12:09:18 GMT
AOC is barely in the Squad these days. She wisely detached herself from their antisemitism because she wants to be a senator. Same for Ayanna Pressley too?
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Post by sanders on Aug 7, 2024 19:59:21 GMT
It’s also worth pointing out that Bush had seemingly lost a lot of her previous local party support by voting against Biden’s infrastructure bill, but also having one of the poorest voting records of “fit and healthy” Democrats, and Bell ultimately successfully campaigned on being a team player in what’s likely to be another tight House whichever party wins control. Yes. That "not a team player" vibe is what doomed Nina Turner back in 2021 too. She was the one who compared voting for Biden to eating a bowl of shit while comparing voting for Trump to eating two bowls of shit. On one level, Cori Bush had a compelling back story and was the best candidate for the seat in 2020 amid BLM and probably won in large part due to that, along with Bowman. I do think the heavy spending was fairly decisive though, since $9,000,000 is a huge advantage for Bell, but Cori didn't do herself many favours in the last few years. Do you think Ilhan Omar is going to lose in Minnesota?
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Post by timmullen on Aug 7, 2024 20:24:15 GMT
It’s also worth pointing out that Bush had seemingly lost a lot of her previous local party support by voting against Biden’s infrastructure bill, but also having one of the poorest voting records of “fit and healthy” Democrats, and Bell ultimately successfully campaigned on being a team player in what’s likely to be another tight House whichever party wins control. Yes. That "not a team player" vibe is what doomed Nina Turner back in 2021 too. She was the one who compared voting for Biden to eating a bowl of shit while comparing voting for Trump to eating two bowls of shit. On one level, Cori Bush had a compelling back story and was the best candidate for the seat in 2020 amid BLM and probably won in large part due to that, along with Bowman. I do think the heavy spending was fairly decisive though, since $9,000,000 is a huge advantage for Bell, but Cori didn't do herself many favours in the last few years. Do you think Ilhan Omar is going to lose in Minnesota? Probably not, I’m not getting any vibes that she’s in trouble, AIPAC haven’t spent here and The Cook Political Report just has enough before its paywall kicks in to say that she doesn’t appear in obvious danger. I think she probably benefits more than Bush from being perceived more of a team player, and I think the Republicans kicking her off the Foreign Relations Committee because of her pro-Palestinian views may help her persuade people that she’s been racially stereotyped. Also the local paper has said she’s run a very localised campaign concentrating on the money she’s brought into the District rather than national or international issues.
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 8, 2024 0:19:17 GMT
I lived in Cori Bush’s congressional district until quite recently and I was a big supporter of her when she first ran against Lacy Clay (I am pro-Democrat when it comes to US politics, less so pro-Labour/LD in the UK). However, she has been very ineffective as a Representative, her ground game in St. Louis was almost non-existent, and she just tried way too hard to ingratiate herself with “the squad”, wanting desperately to be the next AOC rather than focussing on her district. St. Louis is pretty progressive, but it’s still in Missouri, not the San Francisco Bay Area (the Pride festival in the city every June is really quite pathetic), and I am at a loss as to why she involved herself so heavily in the Israel/Palestine debate, which is utterly irrelevant to most people in St. Louis. She failed to build a decent base outside of Florissant (north of St. Louis) and, based on anecdotes and gossip from my former boss (who was involved in politics and a Democrat poll worker in the city on election days), plus others on the St. Louis subreddit, she was apparently very entitled and quite unpleasant to work with (I didn’t ever personally meet her myself). I was not at all surprised that she lost.
The spending against her didn’t help of course, but she was not a high quality Representative in my opinion. I like what I’ve seen of Wesley Bell, and would probably have voted for him had I been eligible. I hope he will be more of a team player for the Democrats in DC and consequently a better and less disruptive advocate for St. Louis in the future.
Are there many other Congressional districts that have seen two incumbents kicked out in the Primaries in the space of three election cycles?? Probably there are, and I’m just not knowledgeable enough to know. The “incumbency advantage” maybe isn’t that great in MO-01 going forward though.
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Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 6:55:53 GMT
Michigan Democratic Senate primary results (Detroit area)
“WAYNE COUNTY, Michigan
Detroit 🟪 Hill Harper 45422 votes (59%) 🟦 Elissa Slotkin 31896 votes (41%)
The Rest 🟦 Elissa Slotkin 84355 votes (74%) 🟪 Hill Harper 30269 votes (26%)”
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 8, 2024 7:14:00 GMT
I lived in Cori Bush’s congressional district until quite recently and I was a big supporter of her when she first ran against Lacy Clay (I am pro-Democrat when it comes to US politics, less so pro-Labour/LD in the UK). However, she has been very ineffective as a Representative, her ground game in St. Louis was almost non-existent, and she just tried way too hard to ingratiate herself with “the squad”, wanting desperately to be the next AOC rather than focussing on her district. St. Louis is pretty progressive, but it’s still in Missouri, not the San Francisco Bay Area (the Pride festival in the city every June is really quite pathetic), and I am at a loss as to why she involved herself so heavily in the Israel/Palestine debate, which is utterly irrelevant to most people in St. Louis. She failed to build a decent base outside of Florissant (north of St. Louis) and, based on anecdotes and gossip from my former boss (who was involved in politics and a Democrat poll worker in the city on election days), plus others on the St. Louis subreddit, she was apparently very entitled and quite unpleasant to work with (I didn’t ever personally meet her myself). I was not at all surprised that she lost. The spending against her didn’t help of course, but she was not a high quality Representative in my opinion. I like what I’ve seen of Wesley Bell, and would probably have voted for him had I been eligible. I hope he will be more of a team player for the Democrats in DC and consequently a better and less disruptive advocate for St. Louis in the future. Are there many other Congressional districts that have seen two incumbents kicked out in the Primaries in the space of three election cycles?? Probably there are, and I’m just not knowledgeable enough to know. The “incumbency advantage” maybe isn’t that great in MO-01 going forward though. And Wesley Bell is a liberal Democrat anyway.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 8, 2024 7:28:51 GMT
Michigan Democratic Senate primary results (Detroit area) “WAYNE COUNTY, Michigan Detroit 🟪 Hill Harper 45422 votes (59%) 🟦 Elissa Slotkin 31896 votes (41%) The Rest 🟦 Elissa Slotkin 84355 votes (74%) 🟪 Hill Harper 30269 votes (26%)” I mainly know Hill Harper from ‘The Good Doctor’ TV series
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Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 7:53:45 GMT
Hill Harper got shellacked statewide with Elissa Slotkin slotting into the Senate race as the Democratic nominee with 73% of the vote as of the time of writing this.
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Post by timmullen on Aug 8, 2024 8:16:10 GMT
Michigan Democratic Senate primary results (Detroit area) “WAYNE COUNTY, Michigan Detroit 🟪 Hill Harper 45422 votes (59%) 🟦 Elissa Slotkin 31896 votes (41%) The Rest 🟦 Elissa Slotkin 84355 votes (74%) 🟪 Hill Harper 30269 votes (26%)” I mainly know Hill Harper from ‘The Good Doctor’ TV series He was running from Slotkin’s left and managing to point out the fact she was Jewish and had voted against an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Slightly off topic he got a polite rebuke in February when he said he’d be the only dues paying member of the Screen Actors Guild in the Senate and John Hickenlooper Tweeted “not so fast” and attached a copy of his SAG membership card).
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Post by sanders on Aug 8, 2024 8:24:36 GMT
I mainly know Hill Harper from ‘The Good Doctor’ TV series He was running from Slotkin’s left and managing to point out the fact she was Jewish and had voted against an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Slightly off topic he got a polite rebuke in February when he said he’d be the only dues paying member of the Screen Actors Guild in the Senate and John Hickenlooper Tweeted “not so fast” and attached a copy of his SAG membership card). I didn't know that about Slotkin. Either way, Democratic hold. It's quite something that Republicans haven't won a Michigan Senate seat since *checks notes* 1994!That year, a fella called Spencer Abraham won the seat off the Democrats. Before that, you have to go all the way back to Robert P. Griffin in 1972 for a GOP win.
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Post by timmullen on Aug 8, 2024 8:26:27 GMT
He was running from Slotkin’s left and managing to point out the fact she was Jewish and had voted against an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. (Slightly off topic he got a polite rebuke in February when he said he’d be the only dues paying member of the Screen Actors Guild in the Senate and John Hickenlooper Tweeted “not so fast” and attached a copy of his SAG membership card). I didn't know that about Slotkin. Either way, Democratic hold. It's quite something that Republicans haven't won a Michigan Senate seat since *checks notes* 1994! Hill also claimed last year that AIPAC had offered him a substantial amount of money ($20 million?) to drop out of the Senate race and challenge Rashida Tlaib instead.
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