The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 5, 2024 12:13:52 GMT
Senatorially, Montana may vote right of Texas That's not what the tweet you posted says
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Sept 5, 2024 12:17:46 GMT
Senatorially, Montana may vote right of Texas That's not what the tweet you posted says I am trying to add value here. I'm adding opinions based on research. No point just describing other's words. Otherwise you could read the tweet...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 5, 2024 12:19:28 GMT
OK then.... We will find out how much "value" your speculations have before too long now
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Sept 5, 2024 12:25:02 GMT
OK then.... We will find out how much "value" your speculations have before too long now TL;DR: polarisation catches up with Tester. Cruz's unpopularity could do for him. He has a 2.57% majority in Texas. Jon Tester actually won by more. They aren't that radical as predictions. Montana last voted Democratic for President before I was born - the same is true for West Virginia (so these states keeping Democratic Senators in office now is a stretch). Similarly, I think Maine will be a real knife fight in 2026 because the vote could decide whether Kamala Harris gets to successfully nominate someone for SCOTUS or not. So I think Susan Collins either retires in 2026, or loses her seat to Jared Golden (who I believe will be the Democratic nominee (Governor Janet Mills is probably too old).
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Sept 5, 2024 16:09:15 GMT
I don't believe Ohio's a 'toss-up'. The polling suggests Sherrod Brown wins. It doesn't seem especially close either. Texas and Florida look right here. That said, Scott's won close races. He did it as Governor too. He'll likely do it again here. Florida is too far gone now. Republicans hold every single statewide office. Maryland as Lean D is sensible. Hogan has a lot of appeal there. It won't be enough to win. The Black vote is solidly Democratic. Angela Alsobrooks's from Prince George's County. Almost the most Democratic area anywhere.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:28:57 GMT
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johng
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Post by johng on Sept 6, 2024 0:36:11 GMT
I don't believe Ohio's a 'toss-up'. The polling suggests Sherrod Brown wins. It doesn't seem especially close either. Really? There's been a real dearth of quality polling in Ohio so there's no way you can say that.
In fact, I think Brown is in quite a tough fight here and it wouldn't be surprising at all for him to lose. It's also, unusually, a state where Adimpact say GOP candidate and PACs are spending more money on the Senate race than Brown and the Dems.
Trump won by a touch over 8 points in 2020. If anything, polling suggests that he will do slightly better this time around, but, again, there's a lack of polling. It should also be noted polling her in 2020 was way out and most had it down as a tossup because of that. But if the polls are right, can Brown really outrun Harris by 8+ points? It's a tough asked in today's polarised electoral landscape.
My personal view at the moment for Senate control is as follows:
WV - Safe GOP
Florida - Likely +++ GOP
Texas - Lean GOP Montana - Lean GOP Ohio - Tossup Nevada - Lean Dem Michigan - Lean Dem PA - Lean + Dem
Wisconsin - Likely Dem
Arizona - Likely Dem
Everything else safe for the incumbent party.
Not a particularly good position for the Dems to be in, but past mistakes like FL 2018 (though a likely GOP pickup this time - it wouldn't be a total no hoper), Maine and NC 2020 (and NC and Wisconsin 2022) are coming back to haunt them.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 2:48:07 GMT
I don't believe Ohio's a 'toss-up'. The polling suggests Sherrod Brown wins. It doesn't seem especially close either. Really? There's been a real dearth of quality polling in Ohio so there's no way you can say that.
In fact, I think Brown is in quite a tough fight here and it wouldn't be surprising at all for him to lose. It's also, unusually, a state where Adimpact say GOP candidate and PACs are spending more money on the Senate race than Brown and the Dems.
Trump won by a touch over 8 points in 2020. If anything, polling suggests that he will do slightly better this time around, but, again, there's a lack of polling. It should also be noted polling her in 2020 was way out and most had it down as a tossup because of that. But if the polls are right, can Brown really outrun Harris by 8+ points? It's a tough asked in today's polarised electoral landscape.
My personal view at the moment for Senate control is as follows:
WV - Safe GOP
Florida - Likely +++ GOP
Texas - Lean GOP Montana - Lean GOP Ohio - Tossup Nevada - Lean Dem Michigan - Lean Dem PA - Lean + Dem
Wisconsin - Likely Dem
Arizona - Likely Dem
Everything else safe for the incumbent party.
Not a particularly good position for the Dems to be in, but past mistakes like FL 2018 (though a likely GOP pickup this time - it wouldn't be a total no hoper), Maine and NC 2020 (and NC and Wisconsin 2022) are coming back to haunt them.
I think Ohio is Maine 2020. A solid incumbent defying the polls. Brown's 2018 win wasn't especially close. He won by 6% that year. That seems a lot to overcome. This isn't a Montana situation, really. We've seen candidates outrun 8% deficits. Biden won Maine by 9% (Collins same). Obviously it's not like 2008 anymore. Then, Senate Democrats retained South Dakota! Collins and Obama won Maine by 20%! Montana was solid for Baucus (D). So yes, I think Brown wins. Polls only tell us so much. Moreno is not the best challenger. Jake LaRose or Josh Mandel maybe. No half-decent poll had Moreno leading. Speaking of Democrats winning unlikely races... North Carolina is giving Lean Democrat. At minimum, I would say, honestly. Josh Stein has this governor race. Lt-Gov. Robinson has lost the plot. Speaking of southern states, some news. Winsome Sears running for Virginia Governor. Sears is currently Virginia's Republican Lieutenant-Governor. The Democratic front-runner is Abigail Spanberger. Women are currently both parties' front-runners.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Sept 9, 2024 4:49:02 GMT
I don't believe Ohio's a 'toss-up'. The polling suggests Sherrod Brown wins. It doesn't seem especially close either. Really? There's been a real dearth of quality polling in Ohio so there's no way you can say that. In fact, I think Brown is in quite a tough fight here and it wouldn't be surprising at all for him to lose. It's also, unusually, a state where Adimpact say GOP candidate and PACs are spending more money on the Senate race than Brown and the Dems.
Trump won by a touch over 8 points in 2020. If anything, polling suggests that he will do slightly better this time around, but, again, there's a lack of polling. It should also be noted polling her in 2020 was way out and most had it down as a tossup because of that. But if the polls are right, can Brown really outrun Harris by 8+ points? It's a tough asked in today's polarised electoral landscape.
My personal view at the moment for Senate control is as follows:
WV - Safe GOP
Florida - Likely +++ GOP
Texas - Lean GOP Montana - Lean GOP Ohio - Tossup Nevada - Lean Dem Michigan - Lean Dem PA - Lean + Dem
Wisconsin - Likely Dem
Arizona - Likely Dem
Everything else safe for the incumbent party.
Not a particularly good position for the Dems to be in, but past mistakes like FL 2018 (though a likely GOP pickup this time - it wouldn't be a total no hoper), Maine and NC 2020 (and NC and Wisconsin 2022) are coming back to haunt them.
My analysis would be fairly similar but with a few changes California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington - Safe D Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico - Likely D Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin - Lean D Florida, Ohio, Texas - Lean R Missouri, Montana, Nebraska - Likely R Indiana, Mississippi, Nebraska special, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming - Safe R
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 4:54:21 GMT
My forecasts based on demographics, census data, polls, the Lichtman model, and so forth are:
CON gain from LAB: Montana (likely), West Virginia (safe)
LAB gain from CON: Texas (tilt)
Galactic Senate of the Republic: LAB HOLD (50 + VP Walz)
Electoral College; HARRIS 359; TRUMP 179 (Labour gains: North Carolina, Texas).
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 9, 2024 14:17:46 GMT
The abortion rights amendment due to be on the ballot in Missouri in November is likely to be axed after Judge Christopher Limbaugh ruled that the signature-gathering process was deficient. The measure will not appear on the ballot unless an state appeals court intervenes to block Judge Limbaugh’s decision by tomorrow (which is the deadline for making changes to the November ballot in Missouri). apnews.com/article/abortion-missouri-constitutional-amendment-4f40c97177cdeaea6aec3fca59c2f99eBefore you ask, yes, this judge is Rush Limbaugh’s cousin.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 14:26:40 GMT
The Missouri abortion ballot intuitive wouldn't have changed any result. The one in Arizona just might if it spikes turnout among pro-choice demographics.
Ok, now let's talk about the Hawkeye State. The Republicans won everything at the Congressional level there in 2022 for the first time since 1946 - even in 1994, they had Harkin's Senate seat.
They are throwing a lot at the 1st District. This is one of a few potential Midwest gains, along with Nebraska's 2nd District (Omaha). Iowa's 1st District was a very narrow Republican gain in 2022;
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 9, 2024 14:48:48 GMT
The Missouri abortion ballot intuitive wouldn't have changed any result. The one in Arizona just might if it spikes turnout among pro-choice demographics. No, but it might have allowed women in Missouri to access an abortion if they want or need one. Some might say that’s pretty important, regardless of any impact on Federal elections.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 15:05:44 GMT
The Missouri abortion ballot intuitive wouldn't have changed any result. The one in Arizona just might if it spikes turnout among pro-choice demographics. No, but it might have allowed women in Missouri to access an abortion if they want or need one. Some might say that’s pretty important, regardless of any impact on Federal elections. Sorry you’re right - my autistic brain. I believe it would have passed. Missouri backed Medicaid expansion in 2020.
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Post by timmullen on Sept 9, 2024 18:01:30 GMT
No, but it might have allowed women in Missouri to access an abortion if they want or need one. Some might say that’s pretty important, regardless of any impact on Federal elections. Sorry you’re right - my autistic brain. I believe it would have passed. Missouri backed Medicaid expansion in 2020. The sponsors have skipped the Appelate court and will have a hearing before the State Supreme Court beginning at 8.30am local time tomorrow.
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aargauer
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Post by aargauer on Sept 9, 2024 18:16:17 GMT
The Missouri abortion ballot intuitive wouldn't have changed any result. The one in Arizona just might if it spikes turnout among pro-choice demographics. Ok, now let's talk about the Hawkeye State. The Republicans won everything at the Congressional level there in 2022 for the first time since 1946 - even in 1994, they had Harkin's Senate seat. They are throwing a lot at the 1st District. This is one of a few potential Midwest gains, along with Nebraska's 2nd District (Omaha). Iowa's 1st District was a very narrow Republican gain in 2022; What about the second - no less winnable. Both are tough.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 18:57:35 GMT
11% lead for A-G Josh Stein. That’s quite something and probably unsustainable. ‘2024 GE: FAU/@mainstusapolls
NORTH CAROLINA 🟥 Trump: 48% 🟦 Harris: 47% --- NC Governor 🟦 Josh Stein: 50% 🟥 M. Robinson: 39% —— #85 (2.0/3.0) | LVs | 9/5-6 | ±3.7%’
Compare to 2022 when Ted Budd (R) won the Senate seat.
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 10, 2024 13:21:56 GMT
They never had any intention of actually letting the people vote on this:
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Post by timmullen on Sept 10, 2024 20:05:08 GMT
They never had any intention of actually letting the people vote on this: Missouri State Supreme Court has ordered the initiative be reinstated on the ballot and, at least according to local media, that’s the final word.
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 10, 2024 20:15:13 GMT
They never had any intention of actually letting the people vote on this: Missouri State Supreme Court has ordered the initiative be reinstated on the ballot and, at least according to local media, that’s the final word. You beat me too it!! Yes, quite amazing really. Apologies to anyone that doesn’t care, I just find this issue particularly interesting seeing as I used to live there. It will be very interesting to see what the result is (and indeed in all of these ballot initiatives).
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