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Post by timmullen on Aug 21, 2024 23:21:38 GMT
Not the greatest pollster, but Rasmussen were the last to publish a Montana senate poll and had Tester +7; slightly high I’d imagine, but both Sabato’s Center for Politics and The Cook Political Report are both placing it in the tossup category. Actually Rasmussen have Sheehy up by seven (not unusual for them to favour the GOP of course), before that there was an RMG Research poll that had Tester up by five but the average seems to be Sheehy +5 There’s been a lack of non-partisan polling so far overall, I don’t think Tester can be ruled out but he does face some fight and will need to persuade a good chunk of Trump voters to split their ticket, which is becoming much less common in general RMG is Rasmussen, and 538 only has one poll with Sheehy up significantly, that’s American Pulse Research & Polling (unrated by 538 and RCP) with him +6. Emerson College, the only other poll in August, has Sheehy +2, well within MoE. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/
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Post by stb12 on Aug 21, 2024 23:31:59 GMT
Actually Rasmussen have Sheehy up by seven (not unusual for them to favour the GOP of course), before that there was an RMG Research poll that had Tester up by five but the average seems to be Sheehy +5 There’s been a lack of non-partisan polling so far overall, I don’t think Tester can be ruled out but he does face some fight and will need to persuade a good chunk of Trump voters to split their ticket, which is becoming much less common in general RMG is Rasmussen, and 538 only has one poll with Sheehy up significantly, that’s American Pulse Research & Polling (unrated by 538 and RCP) with him +6. Emerson College, the only other poll in August, has Sheehy +2, well within MoE. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/I was referring to these two: My confusion there is probably because I was thinking of Rasmussen reports, the company originally founded by Scott Rasmussen but he left them years ago and founded RMG. Reports got taken off a lot of the averaging websites like 538 fairly recently due to lack of credibility
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 22, 2024 0:51:27 GMT
Apologies if it has been mentioned before and I missed it, but George Helmy (former Chief of Staff to Governor Phil Murphy) has been nominated to fill the vacant New Jersey seat in the Senate (caused of course by the resignation of Bob Medendez). He will assume office on September 9th but will likely only be a caretaker appointment, with current Representative Andy Kim expected to win the November election for the Democrats.
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Post by timmullen on Aug 22, 2024 1:41:50 GMT
RMG is Rasmussen, and 538 only has one poll with Sheehy up significantly, that’s American Pulse Research & Polling (unrated by 538 and RCP) with him +6. Emerson College, the only other poll in August, has Sheehy +2, well within MoE. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/I was referring to these two: My confusion there is probably because I was thinking of Rasmussen reports, the company originally founded by Scott Rasmussen but he left them years ago and founded RMG. Reports got taken off a lot of the averaging websites like 538 fairly recently due to lack of credibility That would explain it (am slightly surprised Rasmussen didn’t do something to Trademark his name on polls to emphasise the difference). I do remember back in the Obama years I was signed up to email newsletters from Stu Rothenberg who used to do the House ratings for CNN amongst others sending out a long email explaining why he was moving Reports to junk polling.
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 22, 2024 16:48:49 GMT
An abortion initiative is now also on the ballot in Montana in November: ballotpedia.org/2023_and_2024_abortion-related_ballot_measuresThis might boost turnout a little amongst those who support female reproductive autonomy, so may be of slight help to Tester in his re-election bid?? I still think it’s a very long shot though. However, in a 4-3 ruling, the Arkansas Supreme Court has ruled that abortion will not be on the ballot in the state this November because of a discrepancy in the paperwork affecting signature collection. Apparently “the Secretary of State correctly refused to count the signatures collected by paid canvassers because the sponsor failed to file the paid canvasser training certification” on time. Hmmm. apnews.com/article/abortion-ballot-arkansas-supreme-court-48c208d49d82b467fbcc4b9c2724617a
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Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 22, 2024 21:18:24 GMT
An abortion initiative is now also on the ballot in Montana in November: ballotpedia.org/2023_and_2024_abortion-related_ballot_measuresThis might boost turnout a little amongst those who support female reproductive autonomy, so may be of slight help to Tester in his re-election bid?? I still think it’s a very long shot though. However, in a 4-3 ruling, the Arkansas Supreme Court has ruled that abortion will not be on the ballot in the state this November because of a discrepancy in the paperwork affecting signature collection. Apparently “the Secretary of State correctly refused to count the signatures collected by paid canvassers because the sponsor failed to file the paid canvasser training certification” on time. Hmmm. apnews.com/article/abortion-ballot-arkansas-supreme-court-48c208d49d82b467fbcc4b9c2724617aMontana a bit more important than Arkansas, though.
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 22, 2024 22:51:15 GMT
However, in a 4-3 ruling, the Arkansas Supreme Court has ruled that abortion will not be on the ballot in the state this November because of a discrepancy in the paperwork affecting signature collection. Apparently “the Secretary of State correctly refused to count the signatures collected by paid canvassers because the sponsor failed to file the paid canvasser training certification” on time. Hmmm. apnews.com/article/abortion-ballot-arkansas-supreme-court-48c208d49d82b467fbcc4b9c2724617aMontana a bit more important than Arkansas, though. Oh for sure, but since I was posting about these things, I figured I should include Arkansas too for completeness.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 25, 2024 13:33:30 GMT
Fantastic result for Mary Peltola, the Democratic Congresswoman for Alaska-At Large, in the jungle primary last night. She got over 50% of the vote (she was under 40% at this stage in 2022 as the sole Democrat) and now looks a clear favourite for re-election in November, despite her district's strongly Republican lean. Two Republicans advanced with a pretty even vote like the last time as well, even with the preference system the vote will still be too split to give them a chance considering Peltola’s strength, it really would need only one major Republican in the race for there to be any chance Republican Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom who finished third has now withdrawn. Although there will still be another advance from the jungle primary it won’t be anyone with any sort of profile so this essentially now leaves it as Mary Peltola vs Nick Begich III This gives the GOP a much better chance of winning back the seat but Alaska likes its incumbents and Peltola clearly has crossover appeal so I’d say she’s still the favourite thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4845153-alaska-house-peltola-begich-ranked-choice/
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Post by timmullen on Aug 31, 2024 23:11:54 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Sept 2, 2024 9:39:20 GMT
I’d expect for the Senate race that at best it will be similar to other strong independent challenges that the Democrats ended up backing like Greg Orman in Kansas 2014 and more recently Even McMullin in Utah 2022. Impressive performances but in the end still considerably short of winning, and in both of those cases it wasn’t a Presidential year either Having said that if the Republicans need to send resources to Nebraska to make sure it’s ok then that’s still a downside for them
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Post by sanders on Sept 4, 2024 6:40:31 GMT
Washington's recount is done and dusted. Upthegrove (D) is in the last two. He avoids elimination by a hair.
Evergreen State Republicans must be gutted. The did hold the SoS office. That was with Nancy Wyman (pre-2021). Ex-Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Buetler came first. She got shut out in 2022. Joe Kent (R), whack-job did that. He's running again and probably loses. Washington South West elected a Democrat. A Blue Dog type (strong incumbent). JHB voted to impeach Donald Trump. That was why she got decpaitated. I think WA-03 Democrats are safe.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 4, 2024 12:43:20 GMT
That's decided by fewer votes than you got!
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Post by sanders on Sept 4, 2024 13:02:44 GMT
Arizona's 1st: Democrats outspending David Schweikert. Cherny currently ahead $1.7m - $1.2m. Schweikert has raised about $200,000 more. Republicans also raised more in AZ-06. The differential is about 85,000 dollars. Overall, Republican lead $4.435m - $4.350m. These seats were very close previously. I think they're both toss ups. I'd rather be the Democrats, however. House delegations matter for EC ties. That's unlikely this year but possible. Dems should get more in AZ.
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Post by timmullen on Sept 4, 2024 15:10:01 GMT
House delegations matter for EC ties. That's unlikely this year but possible. Dems should get more in AZ. It would be irrelevant anyway as members elected in November aren’t sworn until after the counting of the Electoral College votes.
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 4, 2024 15:40:29 GMT
House delegations matter for EC ties. That's unlikely this year but possible. Dems should get more in AZ. It would be irrelevant anyway as members elected in November aren’t sworn until after the counting of the Electoral College votes. I’m not sure that this is correct, is it?? I thought the new Congress begins on January 3rd, with the Electoral College votes being counted on January 6th?? Apologies if I’m wrong about this.
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Post by sanders on Sept 4, 2024 15:40:56 GMT
House delegations matter for EC ties. That's unlikely this year but possible. Dems should get more in AZ. It would be irrelevant anyway as members elected in November aren’t sworn until after the counting of the Electoral College votes. Ah yes, that does sound right. The Electoral College meets in December.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 4, 2024 15:52:14 GMT
It would be irrelevant anyway as members elected in November aren’t sworn until after the counting of the Electoral College votes. I’m not sure that this is correct, is it?? I thought the new Congress begins on January 3rd, with the Electoral College votes being counted on January 6th?? Apologies if I’m wrong about this. The electoral college meets in December, January is the certification of the results by congress (hence the whole Jan 6th drama)
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 4, 2024 16:50:28 GMT
I’m not sure that this is correct, is it?? I thought the new Congress begins on January 3rd, with the Electoral College votes being counted on January 6th?? Apologies if I’m wrong about this. The electoral college meets in December, January is the certification of the results by congress (hence the whole Jan 6th drama) Has anyone told them that news doesn't travel by stagecoach any more?
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Post by timmullen on Sept 4, 2024 16:52:52 GMT
riccimarsh is indeed correct, the 119th Congress is gavelled in on 3rd January and the Counting of the EC Votes is on 6th January. I was incorrect.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 4, 2024 17:05:53 GMT
riccimarsh is indeed correct, the 119th Congress is gavelled in on 3rd January and the Counting of the EC Votes is on 6th January. I was incorrect. Is that also when congress would vote in the event of an EC tie/no majority EC or could that be sooner?
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