The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 20, 2012 21:41:47 GMT
Looks like some fun and games in the next 24 hours, then  |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 20, 2012 22:27:55 GMT
Looks like some fun and games in the next 24 hours, then It seems that tomorrow isn't the absolute deadline for withdrawal but that after tomorrow he would need a court order to withdraw and would be liable for any costs caused by change of ballot papers, etc. |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 21, 2012 5:42:57 GMT
PPP have done a flash poll in Missouri
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 43 (44) Todd Akin (R): 44 (45) Undecided: 13 (11)
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dizz
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Post by dizz on Aug 21, 2012 11:43:54 GMT
  (that it keeps him in)
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 21, 2012 12:17:18 GMT
(that it keeps him in) Yeah I think that probably just about does enough to fight off the demands that he step down, along with the PPP poll that indicates he still has a chance of winning. Had he been 5 points down in that poll things would have been very different. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2012 12:21:02 GMT
(that it keeps him in) Yeah I think that probably just about does enough to fight off the demands that he step down, along with the PPP poll that indicates he still has a chance of winning. Had he been 5 points down in that poll things would have been very different. He'll stay in, bu he won't win, unless the GOP backtracks on it's pulling of supoort, which will be very risky for them. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 21, 2012 12:38:55 GMT
Yeah I think that probably just about does enough to fight off the demands that he step down, along with the PPP poll that indicates he still has a chance of winning. Had he been 5 points down in that poll things would have been very different. He'll stay in, bu he won't win, unless the GOP backtracks on it's pulling of supoort, which will be very risky for them. That was my first instinct but I gather that anti-abortion groups are promising to channel significant funds to him if he stays in the race. |
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Post by erlend on Aug 21, 2012 13:56:32 GMT
He'll stay in, bu he won't win, unless the GOP backtracks on it's pulling of supoort, which will be very risky for them. That was my first instinct but I gather that anti-abortion groups are promising to channel significant funds to him if he stays in the race. I think that if he has to declare that his funding is coming that one sidedly from one special interest it will damage him in the result. Even though quite possibly a reasonable chunk of Missouri oppose a woman's right to choose. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2012 19:08:45 GMT
He'll stay in, bu he won't win, unless the GOP backtracks on it's pulling of supoort, which will be very risky for them. That was my first instinct but I gather that anti-abortion groups are promising to channel significant funds to him if he stays in the race. The Dems must be wndering if they can now hold this seat, which looked lost, & cosidering that the GOP convention policy is 'no abortion, no exemptions' ......... |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 21, 2012 19:55:15 GMT
I think that if he has to declare that his funding is coming that one sidedly from one special interest it will damage him in the result. Even though quite possibly a reasonable chunk of Missouri oppose a woman's right to choose. I think it will hurt him. Missouri leans to the right but it isn't Mississippi or Alabama (where Akin's comments would probably have done him good!) Missouri is trending further and further to the right. I suspect Akin may hold on if he can get the money. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 21, 2012 20:09:43 GMT
Now even Gov. Romney himself has called on Akin to stand aside.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 21, 2012 20:25:56 GMT
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 21, 2012 22:17:48 GMT
It's gone past 5pm CET and Akin's still in. I bet the Dems think it's Christmas.
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tricky
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Post by tricky on Aug 21, 2012 22:55:11 GMT
I think it will hurt him. Missouri leans to the right but it isn't Mississippi or Alabama (where Akin's comments would probably have done him good!) Missouri is trending further and further to the right. I suspect Akin may hold on if he can get the money. It may be trending further and further right but it isn't that wingnutty yet. It isn't just the fact that he said what he said that will be thrown at him in TV ads (and various groups will currently be turning on the money taps in the direction of McCaskill's campaign) but it is all the comments from Republicans who have jumped all over him. By the time November comes round he may not even vote for himself. Dem hold and I am no longer predicting close. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 22, 2012 0:53:24 GMT
Moving away from Missouri, an interesting poll in Massachusetts where PPP have Scott Brown 5 points ahead of Elizabeth Warren. I find it really hard to believe that Brown can hold on in a Presidential election year but all indications are that he has a fighting chance. This is one of only two* GOP Senate seats that the Dems have any real chance to pick up and winning it is essential for them if they are going to retain The Senate.
The other is Nevada which looked very close at one point but Shelley Berkley's ethics problem will likely cost her dearly.
EDIT: I had forgotten that the GOPs idiocy had also put Indiana in play, that being said I suspect that Mourdock will probably just hold that seat for them.
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Post by erlend on Aug 22, 2012 9:55:32 GMT
I thought there was an open republican seat in Maine that would be in play?
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 22, 2012 10:13:20 GMT
I thought there was an open republican seat in Maine that would be in play? The Indy ex-governor is the hot favourite in that race. But he's most likely to caucus with the Democrats so the Republicans would be down one, Dems up one there. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 22, 2012 10:40:08 GMT
I thought there was an open republican seat in Maine that would be in play? The Indy ex-governor is the hot favourite in that race. But he's most likely to caucus with the Democrats so the Republicans would be down one, Dems up one there. It would have been an interesting 3 way fight but with the Dems not putting in any serious effort Angus King will stroll to a landslide victory. I think he will caucus with the Democrats but he will not be a a completely reliable vote for them. Obviously this puts the GOP one down but if they hold their other seats have a good chance of taking the Senate. Nebraska looks in the bag as one pick up and North Dakota is also pretty likely. With Tommy Thompson as the candidate they will probably add Wisconsin and while it looks close I think they will edge Montana. That would give the GOP 50 seats and they have several more pick up chances. Virginia looks close, Missouri will now probably be close, New Mexico could be competitive, Florida should be competitive (although Nelson looks strong at the moment) and even Connecticut is on the list as a long shot (McMahon has improved her image over the last 18 months and has lots of money). That being the case I really think the Dems need a pick up to have a good chance of retaining the Senate and Massachusetts looks their best chance. It will be interesting to see if the ground breaking agreement that they reached to keep third party adverts off the air will hold. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 22, 2012 21:11:44 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 22, 2012 21:14:28 GMT
I completely agree that I wouldn't expect many confirmed GOP'ers to switch to the Dems over this........
The real possibility, of course, is that it energises a hitherto flagging Democratic "base" - whilst having much the opposite effect on Akin's support.
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(that it keeps him in)
