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Post by iainbhx on Jul 8, 2012 8:43:35 GMT
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Post by comicbookguy on Jul 17, 2012 0:17:34 GMT
So what do we think will happen in Massachusetts? Personally, I don't think that Brown can hold on in a presidential year. Obama's coattails will be enough for Warren to emerge victorious.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 17, 2012 19:01:07 GMT
So what do we think will happen in Massachusetts? Personally, I don't think that Brown can hold on in a presidential year. Obama's coattails will be enough for Warren to emerge victorious. Tend to agree. However Brown does have high approval ratings and a lot of money so things will probably be quite close. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 15, 2012 9:31:27 GMT
Big result for the GOP in the yesterday's Wisconsin Senate primary. Former Gov Tommy Thompson got the nod and is probably slight favourite to beat Rep Tammy Baldwin in November for this open seat.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 18, 2012 20:36:31 GMT
Couple of interesting Senate polls for Rasmussen.
In Wisconsin they have former governor Tommy Thompson (R) beating Rep Tammy Baldwin (D) by 11 points. Even with the slight GOP bias of Rasmussen this is still a big lead but that shouldn't be too big of a surprise. Thompson was a popular 4 term Governor with near universal name recognition and with a history of winning the votes of Independents. Baldwin on the other hand is a good fit for her 2nd CD (Madison) but probably not as good a fit for other parts of the state where the election will be decided. If the GOP win this they have a good chance of taking back the Senate.
In Florida however Sen Bill Nelson (D) leads Rep Connie Mack (R) by 7 points. This race should be very tight and for Ras to have Nelson up by 7 points is quite significant.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 18, 2012 20:47:26 GMT
Couple of interesting Senate polls for Rasmussen. In Florida however Sen Bill Nelson (D) leads Rep Connie Mack (R) by 7 points. This race should be very tight and for Ras to have Nelson up by 7 points is quite significant. The really odd thing is that the House of Ras had Connie Mack IV up by 9 points last month and I can't think of anything that has hit Florida that hard. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 18, 2012 20:51:47 GMT
The new development in each of the polls is that the Senate primaries were this week and the Republican nomination wasn't certain in either - Thompson was slightly more popular than his rival, but only slightly.
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tricky
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Post by tricky on Aug 18, 2012 23:45:53 GMT
Couple of interesting Senate polls for Rasmussen. In Florida however Sen Bill Nelson (D) leads Rep Connie Mack (R) by 7 points. This race should be very tight and for Ras to have Nelson up by 7 points is quite significant. The really odd thing is that the House of Ras had Connie Mack IV up by 9 points last month and I can't think of anything that has hit Florida that hard. Paul Ryan effect on GOP turnout? Also aren't the polling orgs beginning to really tighten up on likely voters as opposed to voters at this stage in the game? |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 19, 2012 10:18:18 GMT
The really odd thing is that the House of Ras had Connie Mack IV up by 9 points last month and I can't think of anything that has hit Florida that hard. Paul Ryan effect on GOP turnout? Also aren't the polling orgs beginning to really tighten up on likely voters as opposed to voters at this stage in the game? No, whilst obviously Ryan will be portrayed to the senior crowd in FL as a zombie-eyed granny killer, this is less likely to effect the Senate election. Especially as the House of Ras has Rmoney and Ryan as being +2 over Obama in Florida in a poll taken at the same time. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 19, 2012 10:42:05 GMT
Which, of course, equates to a Dem lead with "normal" pollling  |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 19, 2012 11:57:01 GMT
Which, of course, equates to a Dem lead with "normal" pollling Indeed, but not the Dem lead the Senate Race is claiming. Hence, I don't think it's a Ryan effect. |
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tricky
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Post by tricky on Aug 19, 2012 13:22:39 GMT
Paul Ryan effect on GOP turnout? Also aren't the polling orgs beginning to really tighten up on likely voters as opposed to voters at this stage in the game? No, whilst obviously Ryan will be portrayed to the senior crowd in FL as a zombie-eyed granny killer, this is less likely to effect the Senate election. Especially as the House of Ras has Rmoney and Ryan as being +2 over Obama in Florida in a poll taken at the same time. Less likely to affect but not completely disconnected. Turnout will be driven by the Presidential election and as the likely voters filters get put in place by polling orgs any impact in turnout on the voter universe will start to hit the Senate polls. I would expect Nelson to run ahead of Obama so if a load of Republican seniors decide not to vote due to Ryan coming after their medicare Nelson's lead should start to extend quite fast. |
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Post by Tangent on Aug 20, 2012 3:18:24 GMT
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tricky
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Post by tricky on Aug 20, 2012 8:18:51 GMT
Glad to see the Republican Party turning on him fairly uniformly too. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2012 18:00:57 GMT
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 20, 2012 19:42:08 GMT
Rmoney has asked him to consider going as well. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 20, 2012 19:47:09 GMT
And the American Crossroads PAC which has been spending lots of money in MO has pulled its ads.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 20, 2012 19:49:54 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 20, 2012 20:03:31 GMT
The GOP leaders aren't completely stupid. They will tolerate a lot but these comments turned a likely pick up into a likely defeat. This race is too important for them not to throw Akin overboard. |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 20, 2012 20:43:49 GMT
The GOP leaders aren't completely stupid. They will tolerate a lot but these comments turned a likely pick up into a likely defeat. This race is too important for them not to throw Akin overboard. Unfortunately, they only have until tomorrow to get him off the ballot and he's just appeared on Hannity, said he's staying on and borrowed a JCB to increase the size of the hole he dug himself. Seems ladyparts only especially react to kill bad rapist seed if it's a forcible rape. I sense the GOP's Malcolm Tucker is on his way to St Louis at this moment. |
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