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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2024 4:44:13 GMT
Hilarious. Never underestimate progressives' ability to drop the bell anywhere and everywhere, and all of the time. Never underestimate NYDems’ ability to be awful. The state is probably going to experience the strongest pro-Trump swing in America, and it’s mostly down to the NYDem brand being increasingly toxic with moderates (of all colours). That's probably still FL, and the 2022 results flatter to deceive for Republicans in the Empire State. It's the NYC dems who are toxic. Pat Ryan survived in 2022.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 26, 2024 4:47:53 GMT
Never underestimate NYDems’ ability to be awful. The state is probably going to experience the strongest pro-Trump swing in America, and it’s mostly down to the NYDem brand being increasingly toxic with moderates (of all colours). That's probably still FL, and the 2022 results flatter to deceive for Republicans in the Empire State. It's the NYC dems who are toxic. Pat Ryan survived in 2022. Pat Ryan survived because of very high propensity progressives in Ulster county. Polling is also showing NYS (and from polling companies that always underestimate the GOP btw) as having the strongest pro-Trump swing.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2024 4:53:14 GMT
That's probably still FL, and the 2022 results flatter to deceive for Republicans in the Empire State. It's the NYC dems who are toxic. Pat Ryan survived in 2022. Pat Ryan survived because of very high propensity progressives in Ulster county. Polling is also showing NYS (and from polling companies that always underestimate the GOP btw) as having the strongest pro-Trump swing. I think Queens will trend right too - lots of Chinese Americans there are warming up to Trump and voting more like Vietnamese Americans in Orange County, CA.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 26, 2024 4:58:38 GMT
Pat Ryan survived because of very high propensity progressives in Ulster county. Polling is also showing NYS (and from polling companies that always underestimate the GOP btw) as having the strongest pro-Trump swing. I think Queens will trend right too - lots of Chinese Americans there are warming up to Trump and voting more like Vietnamese Americans in Orange County, CA. The Asian vote is massively swinging to the right in NYC and LI. Most Dems in heavily Asian areas are practically running on a socially and culturally right wing platform now. The only surviving Dem in the heavily Asian parts of Brooklyn compared BLM to the KKK.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 26, 2024 5:00:09 GMT
Looks like the Progressive wing of the CO Democratic Party got nuked in the state legislative races. 8/11 prog incumbents lost their primaries to moderates.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2024 5:29:22 GMT
I think Queens will trend right too - lots of Chinese Americans there are warming up to Trump and voting more like Vietnamese Americans in Orange County, CA. The Asian vote is massively swinging to the right in NYC and LI. Most Dems in heavily Asian areas are practically running on a socially and culturally right wing platform now. The only surviving Dem in the heavily Asian parts of Brooklyn compared BLM to the KKK. It's easy to forget that Bob Dole won the Asian American vote in 1996.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 26, 2024 6:29:40 GMT
The Asian vote is massively swinging to the right in NYC and LI. Most Dems in heavily Asian areas are practically running on a socially and culturally right wing platform now. The only surviving Dem in the heavily Asian parts of Brooklyn compared BLM to the KKK. It's easy to forget that Bob Dole won the Asian American vote in 1996. Zeldin won the NYC Asian vote in 2022 after they back Biden by something like 62-38 (and that includes Asian Muslims who didn’t move much in 2022).
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 4:25:40 GMT
Sans redistricting, Bob Good (VA-05) and Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) are 2024's biggest primary losers. They both bested incumbents in the 2020 elections. Another upset might be on the cards in Utah's 2nd Congressional District, where recent special election victor Celeste Molloy is locked in a close primary contest with underfunded challenger Colby Jenkins (she raised over $1 million and outspent him 3-1). Good lost to a more right-wing challenger in Virginia. Bowman lost to the more centrist George Latimer. While Bowman was more active than his predecessor, Engel, he didn't enamour himself with the Westchester County bits of his seat. Utah should post the final figures sooner or later: electionresults.utah.gov/results/public/utah/elections/primary06252024. However, some aren't calling UT-02 results yet.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 6:03:18 GMT
Republicans are trying to recall Wisconsin House Speaker Robin Vos. The embattled majority leader, already facing an uncertain future for his party in the state given redistricting after liberals secured a majority on the WI Supreme Court, Vos accepted that Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 (shocking), so MAGA Republicans want his head on a plate. Democrats have an excellent chance of adding four trifectas at the state level in 2024: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona. The Texas State House is unlikely for Democrats, but not impossible if Biden and Allred have a good night in the Lone Star State.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 27, 2024 8:39:28 GMT
Republicans are trying to recall Wisconsin House Speaker Robin Vos. The embattled majority leader, already facing an uncertain future for his party in the state given redistricting after liberals secured a majority on the WI Supreme Court, Vos accepted that Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 (shocking), so MAGA Republicans want his head on a plate. Democrats have an excellent chance of adding four trifectas at the state level in 2024: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona. The Texas State House is unlikely for Democrats, but not impossible if Biden and Allred have a good night in the Lone Star State. Vos is probably the most conservative assembly speaker in any swing state, and they are recalling him? Lmao
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 8:41:44 GMT
Republicans are trying to recall Wisconsin House Speaker Robin Vos. The embattled majority leader, already facing an uncertain future for his party in the state given redistricting after liberals secured a majority on the WI Supreme Court, Vos accepted that Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 (shocking), so MAGA Republicans want his head on a plate. Democrats have an excellent chance of adding four trifectas at the state level in 2024: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona. The Texas State House is unlikely for Democrats, but not impossible if Biden and Allred have a good night in the Lone Star State. Vos is probably the most conservative assembly speaker in any swing state, and they are recalling him? Lmao Well he might struggle a bit when they get "fair" Wisconsin. It's funny that Evers won by 5% and Republicans held the stage legislature without too much trouble.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 27, 2024 8:48:55 GMT
Vos is probably the most conservative assembly speaker in any swing state, and they are recalling him? Lmao Well he might struggle a bit when they get "fair" Wisconsin. It's funny that Evers won by 5% and Republicans held the stage legislature without too much trouble. WI arguably has the worst geography in the nation for Dems.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 27, 2024 8:50:44 GMT
Sans redistricting, Bob Good (VA-05) and Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) are 2024's biggest primary losers. They both bested incumbents in the 2020 elections. Another upset might be on the cards in Utah's 2nd Congressional District, where recent special election victor Celeste Molloy is locked in a close primary contest with underfunded challenger Colby Jenkins (she raised over $1 million and outspent him 3-1). Good lost to a more right-wing challenger in Virginia. Bowman lost to the more centrist George Latimer. While Bowman was more active than his predecessor, Engel, he didn't enamour himself with the Westchester County bits of his seat. Utah should post the final figures sooner or later: electionresults.utah.gov/results/public/utah/elections/primary06252024. However, some aren't calling UT-02 results yet. Malloy isn’t really an incumbent, as she only won the special election in late November. She’s also going to win based on where the remaining vote is (mostly Salt Lake County). Btw, Good won the new parts of his congressional district but lost the parts he represented in 2020.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 8:51:07 GMT
Well he might struggle a bit when they get "fair" Wisconsin. It's funny that Evers won by 5% and Republicans held the stage legislature without too much trouble. WI arguably has the worst geography in the nation for Dems. Yes there's something in that but already with gerrymandering they get shortchanged around the Driftless area and the WOW counties re: boundaries. Incidentally, Nevada has the worst geography for Republicans which is one part of why Democrats have a super majority despite the state electing a Republican governor in 2022.
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Post by stb12 on Jun 27, 2024 9:07:55 GMT
Bob Good’s defeat has ultimately come down to him supporting DeSantis and Trump being pissed about it hasn’t it? I don’t see where he’s lacking in terms of being a hard right conservative
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Post by timmullen on Jun 27, 2024 9:10:39 GMT
Bob Good’s defeat has ultimately come down to him supporting DeSantis and Trump being pissed about it hasn’t it? I don’t see where he’s lacking in terms of being a hard right conservative I think there were reports at the time that the local Party apparatus weren’t impressed with his contribution to McCarthy’s ouster, which may have cost him foot soldiers during the campaign.
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Post by stb12 on Jun 27, 2024 9:17:31 GMT
Bob Good’s defeat has ultimately come down to him supporting DeSantis and Trump being pissed about it hasn’t it? I don’t see where he’s lacking in terms of being a hard right conservative I think there were reports at the time that the local Party apparatus weren’t impressed with his contribution to McCarthy’s ouster, which may have cost him foot soldiers during the campaign. Fair enough, even amongst the freedom caucus ousting McCarthy was pretty divisive
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 9:18:52 GMT
Bob Good = Bob Bad
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Post by rcronald on Jun 27, 2024 9:57:40 GMT
Bob Good’s defeat has ultimately come down to him supporting DeSantis and Trump being pissed about it hasn’t it? I don’t see where he’s lacking in terms of being a hard right conservative The only reason it was even close was because the district is a Christian right stronghold and Good was an excellent fit there. McGuire would have beat him by 10% in any other VA district. McCarthy also had a big part in ousting him, as he was one of the reps who voted to vacate the chair (Trump endorsed at least 2 congresspeople who supported DeSantis, since they had the backing of Johnson and McCarthy).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 27, 2024 14:30:29 GMT
I can only admire the thought that went into this one
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