|
Post by rcronald on Jun 27, 2024 19:07:20 GMT
Republicans are trying to recall Wisconsin House Speaker Robin Vos. The embattled majority leader, already facing an uncertain future for his party in the state given redistricting after liberals secured a majority on the WI Supreme Court, Vos accepted that Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 (shocking), so MAGA Republicans want his head on a plate. Democrats have an excellent chance of adding four trifectas at the state level in 2024: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona. The Texas State House is unlikely for Democrats, but not impossible if Biden and Allred have a good night in the Lone Star State. looks like there weren’t enough valid signatures for a recall to take place. x.com/jrrosswrites/status/1806388481477791747?s=46&t=ZWDdXFqnJl_GAw-jDr2R0Q
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 4:46:03 GMT
Wisconsin GOP Senatorial front-runner comes down with foot-in-mouth disease. Hovde is a moron, but he is rich, which will help him win the nomination and spend a lot of money in the primary. How will this achieve anything other than spiking young voter turnout in Dane and Milwaukee counties and doom the GOP's chance of winning the Senate? As Kulinski says, it's giving Romney's '47%' comment from 2012. Hovde is a joke - the GOP would be better placed to win if they chose Paul Ryan here or Scott Walker. I don't see them beating Tammy Baldwin in this race.
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Jul 8, 2024 4:57:58 GMT
Wisconsin GOP Senatorial front-runner comes down with foot-in-mouth disease. Hovde is a moron, but he is rich, which will help him win the nomination and spend a lot of money in the primary. How will this achieve anything other than spiking young voter turnout in Dane and Milwaukee counties and doom the GOP's chance of winning the Senate? As Kulinski says, it's giving Romney's '47%' comment from 2012. Hovde is a joke - the GOP would be better placed to win if they chose Paul Ryan here or Scott Walker. I don't see them beating Tammy Baldwin in this race. A senate race is highly unlikely to increase the turnout in a GE.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 5:04:51 GMT
Wisconsin GOP Senatorial front-runner comes down with foot-in-mouth disease. Hovde is a moron, but he is rich, which will help him win the nomination and spend a lot of money in the primary. How will this achieve anything other than spiking young voter turnout in Dane and Milwaukee counties and doom the GOP's chance of winning the Senate? As Kulinski says, it's giving Romney's '47%' comment from 2012. Hovde is a joke - the GOP would be better placed to win if they chose Paul Ryan here or Scott Walker. I don't see them beating Tammy Baldwin in this race. A senate race is highly unlikely to increase the turnout in a GE. They mutually reinforce each other. We need a Democratic majority in the Senate and a Democrat in the White House to hopefully replace Thomas on the court.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 8, 2024 11:04:15 GMT
Wisconsin would be something of a bonus Senate gain if the GOP turns out to be having a really good night, but it’s not the tipping point for the Senate majority. That comes down to Montana and Ohio (West Virginia is already factored in as a gain)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 11:06:47 GMT
Wisconsin would be something of a bonus Senate gain if the GOP turns out to be having a really good night, but it’s not the tipping point for the Senate majority. That comes down to Montana and Ohio (West Virginia is already factored in as a gain) 100% correct, but Ohio has a rubbish candidate as well. My current prediction is that Sherrod Brown holds that seat by about a point while Trump wins OH by c10%.
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Jul 8, 2024 11:10:35 GMT
Wisconsin would be something of a bonus Senate gain if the GOP turns out to be having a really good night, but it’s not the tipping point for the Senate majority. That comes down to Montana and Ohio (West Virginia is already factored in as a gain) 100% correct, but Ohio has a rubbish candidate as well. My current prediction is that Sherrod Brown holds that seat by about a point while Trump wins OH by c10%. Brown only won by 6% against an even worse candidate who had no money in a blue wave year.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 8, 2024 11:23:31 GMT
Wisconsin would be something of a bonus Senate gain if the GOP turns out to be having a really good night, but it’s not the tipping point for the Senate majority. That comes down to Montana and Ohio (West Virginia is already factored in as a gain) 100% correct, but Ohio has a rubbish candidate as well. My current prediction is that Sherrod Brown holds that seat by about a point while Trump wins OH by c10%. The NRSC a bit strangely decided to not get involved in the Ohio primary despite doing so in most other target or potential target races. However being on the same ticket as the Presidential race will be a big challenge all the same for Brown, probably even more so now unless Biden is either replaced or dramatically turns around his image during the campaign Rep Mike Gallagher had been the leadership’s first choice recruit for Wisconsin but he couldn’t be persuaded, and of course has now quit congress altogether after falling out with the party over the Mayorkas impeachment
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2024 22:37:46 GMT
Current Senate prediction:
DEM gain TX; GOP gain MT, WV. I think Tester doesn't have quite enough crossover appeal to hold his seat in Montana. West Vriginia is a foregone conclusion with Manchin's retirement. Cruz is useless and will do worse than Trump in Texas, and lose to rising star Colin Allred. It'll be close in Ohio but Brown will win by a point.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 11, 2024 7:06:04 GMT
Allred hasn’t been ahead in any poll so far and Cruz has been comfortably ahead in some, that’s not to say it can’t change but there will need to be significant signs of the Allred campaign stepping up and building momentum like there was with the O'Rourke one in 2018
Cruz has his obvious weaknesses but that Democrat breakthrough in Texas has remained elusive and I don’t see it coming here while he’s on the same ballot as Trump
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2024 7:51:41 GMT
Allred hasn’t been ahead in any poll so far and Cruz has been comfortably ahead in some, that’s not to say it can’t change but there will need to be significant signs of the Allred campaign stepping up and building momentum like there was with the O'Rourke one in 2018 Cruz has his obvious weaknesses but that Democrat breakthrough in Texas has remained elusive and I don’t see it coming here while he’s on the same ballot as Trump Allred and Biden are underperforming in the Lone Star State relative to the fundamentals. Texas should be more Democratic than it was six years (but even then it voted 11% to the right of the country in the Senate race). Biden got 46% but may be close to his ceiling unless Trump is seriously haemorrhaging in the suburbs and there is a swing back to Biden (as there is with most incumbent Presidents) in the Rio Grande Valley. We saw this in 2004 and 2012 too (Kennedy County, anyone?).
|
|
|
Post by adlai52 on Jul 12, 2024 9:54:53 GMT
Allred hasn’t been ahead in any poll so far and Cruz has been comfortably ahead in some, that’s not to say it can’t change but there will need to be significant signs of the Allred campaign stepping up and building momentum like there was with the O'Rourke one in 2018 Cruz has his obvious weaknesses but that Democrat breakthrough in Texas has remained elusive and I don’t see it coming here while he’s on the same ballot as Trump Allred and Biden are underperforming in the Lone Star State relative to the fundamentals. Texas should be more Democratic than it was six years (but even then it voted 11% to the right of the country in the Senate race). Biden got 46% but may be close to his ceiling unless Trump is seriously haemorrhaging in the suburbs and there is a swing back to Biden (as there is with most incumbent Presidents) in the Rio Grande Valley. We saw this in 2004 and 2012 too (Kennedy County, anyone?). The GOP machine in TX, combined with Trump likely continuing to do better than a generic republican with some Hispanic voters creates big barrier for Dems this year. I suspect that Trump out runs Cruz by some measure - as he appears likely to do with down ballot republicans across much of the country - but Cruz still wins by a clear but underwhelming margin. On the Democrat defenses, WV is a lost cause - but both OH and MT have strong incumbents Dem Senators. I think Brown has the tougher task though, its a larger, much more urban state and the GOP is now well dug in. Meanwhile, Tester is running in a rural state where the type of retail politics he specializes in still has some impact and the GOP in MT are a less formidable force that in OH. On balance I think both are on course to lose, but it could be close in both states and I would expect more ticket splitting in MT, which might yet save Tester. Of course, what impact the top of the ticket has is still unclear. Democrats down ballot are continuing to outpoll Biden across the board and often by a wide margin (i.e. Baldwin in WI), does that persist into the campaign proper and would a change to another nominee have an impact? I also wonder if a Trump win looks likely do we see Democrats down ballot gain votes from voters looking for a 'check' on a Trump presidency? Given that Democrats have greater reach among more affluent, high information voters than in the past, that type of pitch might have an impact this year?
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 12, 2024 10:14:52 GMT
Allred and Biden are underperforming in the Lone Star State relative to the fundamentals. Texas should be more Democratic than it was six years (but even then it voted 11% to the right of the country in the Senate race). Biden got 46% but may be close to his ceiling unless Trump is seriously haemorrhaging in the suburbs and there is a swing back to Biden (as there is with most incumbent Presidents) in the Rio Grande Valley. We saw this in 2004 and 2012 too (Kennedy County, anyone?). The GOP machine in TX, combined with Trump likely continuing to do better than a generic republican with some Hispanic voters creates big barrier for Dems this year. I suspect that Trump out runs Cruz by some measure - as he appears likely to do with down ballot republicans across much of the country - but Cruz still wins by a clear but underwhelming margin. On the Democrat defenses, WV is a lost cause - but both OH and MT have strong incumbents Dem Senators. I think Brown has the tougher task though, its a larger, much more urban state and the GOP is now well dug in. Meanwhile, Tester is running in a rural state where the type of retail politics he specializes in still has some impact and the GOP in MT are a less formidable force that in OH. On balance I think both are on course to lose, but it could be close in both states and I would expect more ticket splitting in MT, which might yet save Tester. Of course, what impact the top of the ticket has is still unclear. Democrats down ballot are continuing to outpoll Biden across the board and often by a wide margin (i.e. Baldwin in WI), does that persist into the campaign proper and would a change to another nominee have an impact? I also wonder if a Trump win looks likely do we see Democrats down ballot gain votes from voters looking for a 'check' on a Trump presidency? Given that Democrats have greater reach among more affluent, high information voters than in the past, that type of pitch might have an impact this year? Considering the map I’d be very surprised if the GOP didn’t gain the Senate along with a Trump victory However there must be a decent chance that Trump can win while the Democrats gain the House, especially considering the shambles the GOP house has been
|
|
|
Post by adlai52 on Jul 12, 2024 10:56:13 GMT
The GOP machine in TX, combined with Trump likely continuing to do better than a generic republican with some Hispanic voters creates big barrier for Dems this year. I suspect that Trump out runs Cruz by some measure - as he appears likely to do with down ballot republicans across much of the country - but Cruz still wins by a clear but underwhelming margin. On the Democrat defenses, WV is a lost cause - but both OH and MT have strong incumbents Dem Senators. I think Brown has the tougher task though, its a larger, much more urban state and the GOP is now well dug in. Meanwhile, Tester is running in a rural state where the type of retail politics he specializes in still has some impact and the GOP in MT are a less formidable force that in OH. On balance I think both are on course to lose, but it could be close in both states and I would expect more ticket splitting in MT, which might yet save Tester. Of course, what impact the top of the ticket has is still unclear. Democrats down ballot are continuing to outpoll Biden across the board and often by a wide margin (i.e. Baldwin in WI), does that persist into the campaign proper and would a change to another nominee have an impact? I also wonder if a Trump win looks likely do we see Democrats down ballot gain votes from voters looking for a 'check' on a Trump presidency? Given that Democrats have greater reach among more affluent, high information voters than in the past, that type of pitch might have an impact this year? Considering the map I’d be very surprised if the GOP didn’t gain the Senate along with a Trump victory However there must be a decent chance that Trump can win while the Democrats gain the House, especially considering the shambles the GOP house has been The Senate is very challenging for the Dems even in a world where they win the presidency. But agree that there is (good?) chance for the Dems to take the House even while falling short nationally - iirc Dems lost the popular vote in '22 while being close to holding the House.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 15, 2024 20:57:43 GMT
So if JD Vance becomes Vice President Governor Mike DeWine will appoint a replacement initially, then a special election will be held in November 2026 along with the scheduled mid-terms to see out the remainder of the term before the seat is up for a new election in 2028
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2024 21:06:15 GMT
So if JD Vance becomes Vice President Governor Mike DeWine will appoint a replacement initially, then a special election will be held in November 2026 along with the scheduled mid-terms to see out the remainder of the term before the seat is up for a new election in 2028 DeWine (term limited) should appoint himself.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 15, 2024 21:11:10 GMT
So if JD Vance becomes Vice President Governor Mike DeWine will appoint a replacement initially, then a special election will be held in November 2026 along with the scheduled mid-terms to see out the remainder of the term before the seat is up for a new election in 2028 DeWine (term limited) should appoint himself. Well he’s already been a Senator and probably will be ready for retirement soon as he’s 77 but I guess you never know
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2024 1:01:30 GMT
DeWine (term limited) should appoint himself. Well he’s already been a Senator and probably will be ready for retirement soon as he’s 77 but I guess you never know DeWine is younger than the following Senators who'll almost certainly still be there in 2025: Blumenthal, Durbin, King, Risch, McConnell, Sanders, and Grassley.
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 16, 2024 17:32:31 GMT
Bob Menendez convicted on all counts.
|
|
|
Post by riccimarsh on Jul 16, 2024 20:54:17 GMT
Bob Menendez convicted on all counts. Good, he should resign.
|
|