The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 6, 2012 11:34:55 GMT
As I pointed out before, the GOP have had a few near misses there since 1984 - so I doubt if there was much complacency even before today....... Having said that, given the ease of Walker's win, maybe those Dems who thought a recall election not a great idea had a bit of a point??  |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 6, 2012 11:55:02 GMT
As I pointed out before, the GOP have had a few near misses there since 1984 - so I doubt if there was much complacency even before today....... Having said that, given the ease of Walker's win, maybe those Dems who thought a recall election not a great idea had a bit of a point?? Indeed. Walker can now claim that his policies have been endorsed by the people of Wisconsin. The one saving grace for the Democrats is that they did pick up one of the four GOP state senate seats where there was a recall yesterday and so they now control the Senate 17-16. |
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Post by richardclemerson on Jun 6, 2012 12:03:53 GMT
As I pointed out before, the GOP have had a few near misses there since 1984 - so I doubt if there was much complacency even before today....... Having said that, given the ease of Walker's win, maybe those Dems who thought a recall election not a great idea had a bit of a point?? Spot on |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 6, 2012 13:14:05 GMT
As I pointed out before, the GOP have had a few near misses there since 1984 - so I doubt if there was much complacency even before today....... Having said that, given the ease of Walker's win, maybe those Dems who thought a recall election not a great idea had a bit of a point?? Spot on Recall elections are a bad idea in general. Edit: I have now started a UK thread on recall elections. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 6, 2012 13:52:26 GMT
I can't see Obama not winning Wisconsin. The initial exit poll had Obama winning by 12. I'm not sure what that was revised to, but either way that shows a fair amount of Obama voters who backed Walker. Could be self-interest, could be opposition to recalls. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 6, 2012 14:10:50 GMT
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robl
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Post by robl on Jun 6, 2012 15:37:28 GMT
If the exit poll was badly wrong having it 50-50 for the recall, when it was actually 53-46 then presumably the 12 point lead for Obama was actually a lot narrower.
Still, hard to see Obama losing this state in November but he might have to waste some resources here which he otherwise would have been able to put to use in places like Ohio and Virginia.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 6, 2012 15:47:40 GMT
Possible, but on the other hand the partisan make-up of the electorate seems to have been even more Republican than 2010. That's likely down to Republicans being more pumped up to turn out - turnout in Milwaukee was up, but turnout in Fond du Lac (Fox River Valley, strong Republican area) was astronomical.
If enthusiasm is more equally balanced between the parties in November Obama's advantage will likely be higher. On the other hand, if Republicans are much more enthusiastic Obama will probably be pouring too many resources into more difficult states such as Ohio to bother competing in Wisconsin, because if it comes down to there he's probably already lost.
Also, I have to doubt that money will be an issue for either side this year.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 6, 2012 15:48:07 GMT
If the exit poll was badly wrong having it 50-50 for the recall, when it was actually 53-46 then presumably the 12 point lead for Obama was actually a lot narrower. Still, hard to see Obama losing this state in November but he might have to waste some resources here which he otherwise would have been able to put to use in places like Ohio and Virginia. The exit poll saying 50-50 wasn't wrong per se, it simply wasn't the final figures and didn't take into account absentee ballots (which made up 15% of all votes). The final exit poll figure was 52-48 (well inside the margin of error) and had Obama up by 7 points. |
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Post by David Ashforth on Jun 6, 2012 16:35:50 GMT
Huffington Post have a graph of the Wisconsin recall election comparing the results by county with the 2010 results, as well as maps showing the results and margin of victory by county.
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Post by richardclemerson on Jun 7, 2012 8:13:31 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 22, 2012 20:58:06 GMT
Brilliant video from Ryan Coombe who is seeking the Democratic nomination for the Utah 1st Congressional District
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cibwr
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Post by cibwr on Jun 23, 2012 10:09:11 GMT
:-) nice video, wonder if he has any chance of winning...
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 23, 2012 10:10:42 GMT
:-) nice video, wonder if he has any chance of winning... He might have a chance in the primary, but as for the general election, this is Utah. |
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Post by hifly15 on Jun 23, 2012 10:14:17 GMT
:-) nice video, wonder if he has any chance of winning... Not a single chance. But the GOP does have a chance of taking Jim Matheson's new seat (UT-04) with Mia Love, taking Utah's House Party balance from 2-1 to 4-0. |
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tricky
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Post by tricky on Jun 23, 2012 20:56:03 GMT
:-) nice video, wonder if he has any chance of winning... He might have a chance in the primary, but as for the general election, this is Utah. There is a Democrat congressman in Utah but yes, not only is this Utah but it is Utah in a Presidential with a Mormon at the top of the ticket. They may have to invent new numbers to express how much the Republicans will win everything by in that particular state this year. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 23, 2012 21:50:39 GMT
He might have a chance in the primary, but as for the general election, this is Utah. There is a Democrat congressman in Utah but yes, not only is this Utah but it is Utah in a Presidential with a Mormon at the top of the ticket. They may have to invent new numbers to express how much the Republicans will win everything by in that particular state this year. Off-topic: Obama carried Salt Lake County in 2008 by a very narrow margin which was quite an achievement: secure.slco.org/clerk/elections/results/results_arch/2008general.html |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 23, 2012 21:55:35 GMT
He might have a chance in the primary, but as for the general election, this is Utah. There is a Democrat congressman in Utah but yes, not only is this Utah but it is Utah in a Presidential with a Mormon at the top of the ticket. Not to mention that Jim Matheson is pretty conservative. Anyway he is in serious danger of losing his seat this time as boundary changes have split his second district between all 4 newly redrawn districts. He will stand in the new 4th district which includes much his best territory but also lot of new territory. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 25, 2012 18:22:47 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 25, 2012 18:35:31 GMT
Surely no Utah democratic would seriously contemplate dumping Matheson however you drew his district. |
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