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Post by markgoodair on Mar 23, 2021 19:56:34 GMT
Turnout at 8pm local time 60.9% some 5% lower than last time.
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 23, 2021 20:08:05 GMT
Channel 11exit poll has Likud on 31 seats.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 23, 2021 20:08:12 GMT
Israeli Election Day rumour so it’s probably bollocks, but Arab turnout is supposedly looking very poor.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 23, 2021 20:09:32 GMT
Israeli Election Day rumour so it’s probably bollocks, but Arab turnout is supposedly looking very poor. Still higher than in most Arab countries. |
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 23, 2021 20:19:31 GMT
Israeli Election Day rumour so it’s probably bollocks, but Arab turnout is supposedly looking very poor. Exit polls have the Joint List on 8 seats which is quite a fall in numbers from the last election. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 23, 2021 20:21:03 GMT
So back to the polls in another five minutes from now?
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 23, 2021 20:37:18 GMT
Exit polls have the Joint List on 8 seats which is quite a fall in numbers from the last election. Though Raem ran separately so the combined vote share probably isn’t that different. Who knows. The exit polls indicate that Raam have failed to reach the 3.25% quota in order to qualify for seats. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 23, 2021 20:40:03 GMT
The exit polls indicate that Raam have failed to reach the 3.25% quota in order to qualify for seats. Just noticed I mixed up vote share and seat numbers so definitely an underperformance (damn you Israeli polling norms). |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 23, 2021 21:15:02 GMT
So back to the polls in another five minutes from now? I'd have thought so, yes. Netanyahu's coalition wouldn't last very long, he has to work with Bennett to get the slimmest of majorities, 1, and I doubt he'd want to be in hock to the Kahanists. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 23, 2021 22:53:59 GMT
There is a while to go yet with a greatly increased number of absentee ballots this time. Netanyahu is trying to force the outcome by pretending he is already in negotiations, but this is just a stunt.
Bennett needs to think carefully whether he wants to give a slim majority to a Netanyahu government which will seek to humiliate and undermine him, or whether he decides to back a government that is no longer in hock to the ultra-orthodox and passes laws which remove the unfair exemptions and high subsidies given to that minority. Also, he will not want anything to do with Smotrich's gang.
The promise to oppose a Lapid premiership was weak nonsense and he could easily put that aside "in the national interest".
The final numbers are still unsettled,
Even with Yamina, a Likud-led coalition would be weak, if Bennett backed a secularist left-right coalition, it would provide a comfortable majority as a buffer of seats from the Joint List against Likud and its allies defeating a new government.
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 24, 2021 9:49:16 GMT
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would not be able to form a government for the seventh time in his three-decade political career, according to preliminary results from 89% of the regular polling stations reported by the Central Elections Committee.
Netanyahu's bloc of Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism and the Religious Party was found to have won 59 seats along with Yamina, two short of a majority.
According to the preliminary results, Netanyahu's Likud won 30 seats, Yesh Atid 18, Shas 9, Blue and White 8, United Torah Judaism, Yamina and Labor 7, New Hope, Yisrael Beytenu, the Religious Zionist Party 6 and Meretz 5. After initial indications that the Ra'am (United Arab List) Party had not crossed the 3.25% electoral threshold, current results give it five seats and the Joint List six.
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Jamie
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Post by Jamie on Mar 24, 2021 9:50:39 GMT
New election in summer I suspect.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 24, 2021 11:30:03 GMT
New election in summer I suspect. Quite Possible, but I am not willing to say probable. I would guess there is no way that the Knesset would vote for a 5th election in a couple of years, especially as many of the parties had hairy elections in terms of passing the threshold. I think the present tally, if confirmed by the absentee ballots - so no guarantee there - ups the pressure on Naftali Bennett, and makes him more powerful than his numbers should allow. He could back a non-Netanyahu, secularist government, with powerful right-wing components (Yamina, New Hope, Yisreal Beitenu), not reliant on the far-right Religious Zionist faction, and with tacit (not official) backing from the Joint List and, in this scenario, Ra'am (as there would be no other game in town). It would not be a recipe for a long-term government, but it will cause a necessary battle in Likud to take down Netanyahu as he would not have guaranteed power and a lot of the Likud MKs are very unhappy about the boost given to the far-right. |
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Post by seanryanj on Mar 24, 2021 11:51:36 GMT
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result kind of fits with Israeli politics. If BiBi couldn't do better what with peace treaties and a very successful vaccination programme you have to ask will he ever?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2021 11:59:28 GMT
A lot of people thought Netanyahu might actually crack it this time round, for the reasons already stated plus the sort of scaremongering anti-Arab campaign that worked so well for him in the past. If he indeed hasn't, this is a serious setback for him even if he manages to cling to office.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 24, 2021 12:34:35 GMT
A lot of people thought Netanyahu might actually crack it this time round, for the reasons already stated plus the sort of scaremongering anti-Arab campaign that worked so well for him in the past. If he indeed hasn't, this is a serious setback for him even if he manages to cling to office. There are still a lot of ballots to count, so maybe he will crack it - I doubt it though. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 24, 2021 15:10:06 GMT
Rumours that Netanyhau will go for the Presidency if forced from office. This would keep him safe from prosecution and enable him to campaign for the ideal constitutional reform he's always wanted, a directly elected American style executive Presidency.
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Post by seanryanj on Mar 25, 2021 12:02:33 GMT
With 95% counted
Pro Netanyhau 52
Anti Netanyhau 57
Yamina & Ra'am 11 (7 & 4)
Doesn't look like there will be much change on that.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 25, 2021 12:22:01 GMT
With 95% counted Pro Netanyhau 52 Anti Netanyhau 57 Yamina & Ra'am 11 (7 & 4) Doesn't look like there will be much change on that. One would think not, but the absentee ballots may yet shuffle the pack a little. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 25, 2021 15:35:08 GMT
What is so bizarre about all this is that if Netanyahu wasn't personally on the scene, there is a very clear right wing majority and forming a government in terms of ideology wouldn't be at all difficult
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