Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2018 22:30:58 GMT
The results in Richmond Park and Stoke South in 2017. My predictions were: Richmond Park: CON WIN Maj. 74 (actual maj. 45) Stoke South: CON GAIN Maj. 963 (actual maj. 663) Given that I was wrong about Newcastle-under-Lyme and Perth & North Perthshire I was surprised these weren’t too far off what I was predicting. P&NP was a disappointing result which should have been an easy pickup giving the other Conservative gains in Scotland. I can only assume the Conservatives threw the kitchen sink at Stirling and Ochil & South Perthshire, wrongly assuming P&NP was in the bag. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2018 5:00:36 GMT
The results in Richmond Park and Stoke South in 2017. My predictions were: Richmond Park: CON WIN Maj. 74 (actual maj. 45) Stoke South: CON GAIN Maj. 963 (actual maj. 663) Given that I was wrong about Newcastle-under-Lyme and Perth & North Perthshire I was surprised these weren’t too far off what I was predicting. P&NP was a disappointing result which should have been an easy pickup giving the other Conservative gains in Scotland. I can only assume the Conservatives threw the kitchen sink at Stirling and Ochil & South Perthshire, wrongly assuming P&NP was in the bag. Yes. They came within 48 votes in the predecessor seat in 2001 as well. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2018 9:53:59 GMT
I had forgotten that - Labour were only 4% behind the leading two that year as well, so a genuine 3-way marginal.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2018 19:11:34 GMT
Argyll & Bute and Moray also became 3-way marginals that year though I would've only been 3 years old at the time!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2018 20:55:22 GMT
Argyll & Bute and Moray also became 3-way marginals that year though I would've only been 3 years old at the time! Argyll & Bute was actually a four way marginal in 2001 with the SNP three votes behind the Conservatives. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Oct 2, 2018 8:30:11 GMT
Bromley, Epsom and Ewell etc voting Remain considering UKIP were very nearly ahead in those districts in the last euro elections.
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Post by ccoleman on Oct 2, 2018 8:46:09 GMT
Bromley, Epsom and Ewell etc voting Remain considering UKIP were very nearly ahead in those districts in the last euro elections. UKIP were the most-voted party in York in the 2014 European elections, yet the city voted 58% Remain in the referendum. Doesn't mean much really considering the pitiful turnout for the euro elections. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 2, 2018 10:32:30 GMT
Also that as was indeed the case nationally, UKIP will have "won" several areas with notably low shares of the vote.
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Post by londonseal80 on Oct 2, 2018 13:07:37 GMT
Bromley, Epsom and Ewell etc voting Remain considering UKIP were very nearly ahead in those districts in the last euro elections. UKIP were the most-voted party in York in the 2014 European elections, yet the city voted 58% Remain in the referendum. Doesn't mean much really considering the pitiful turnout for the euro elections. Agreed there perhaps the student vote swung it for Remain in York and to a much lesser extent Epsom and Ewell, though like Bromley contains wealthy remain areas too where people would be worried about house prices. Though both boroughs conversely have areas which would be strongly leave like St Paul’s Cray and West Ewell which explains why they were close. |
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Post by ccoleman on Oct 2, 2018 17:04:50 GMT
UKIP were the most-voted party in York in the 2014 European elections, yet the city voted 58% Remain in the referendum. Doesn't mean much really considering the pitiful turnout for the euro elections. Agreed there perhaps the student vote swung it for Remain in York and to a much lesser extent Epsom and Ewell, though like Bromley contains wealthy remain areas too where people would be worried about house prices. Though both boroughs conversely have areas which would be strongly leave like St Paul’s Cray and West Ewell which explains why they were close. I was under the assumption that most students had already gone home by the time of the referendum. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 18, 2018 1:14:24 GMT
Location on a hill? I don't get that. Does that make it more likely to be Tory? Basically yes. In urban areas the middle class suburbs were built on hills in order to get fresh air and stay clear of the pollution. The plebs were clustered in slums down in the valleys. Surprised you are not aware of this - pretty much any city or large town shows this pattern. I live at the top of the range of hills south of Birmingham where all the smart Victorian villas were built. Even now it's pretty Conservative (relatively speaking). Doesn't seem to apply in Henley-on-Thames. Valley Rd is one of the poshest parts of Henley I know. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 18, 2018 1:24:43 GMT
The following stand out for me: 1997 - in the context of that election Wells and Aldridge Brownhills staying Conservative. 2001 - Conservatives gaining Dumfries & Galloway, Lib Dems gaining Ludlow, scale of Lib Dem win in Kingston & Surbiton and Torbay. 2005 - Conservatives gaining Reading East, Lib Dems winning Solihull. Labour holding Rochester & Strood and Gillingham. 2010 - Lib Dems losing Harrogate, Montgomeryshire and Oxford West & Abingdon. Labour holding Eltham and Gedling. Conservatives gaining North Warwickshire and Thurrock. 2015 - Conservatives winning Morley & Outwood, Telford, Bath, Derby South and Labour gaining Chester. Lib Dems holding Carshalton & Wellington in the context of the election. Conservatives holding Cannock Chase and North Warwickshire. 2017 - Labour gaining Canterbury, Kensington, Portsmouth South, Stroud and Lib Dems regaining Eastbourne. Overall, how badly the Conservatives performed in Midlands city seats. In hindsight, lots of these make sense now given prevailing trends which were not obvious at the time. Although I was very young in the 2005 GE, Reading East is my home turf and I'll explain. The sitting MP Jane Griffiths was deselected,I don't know exactly why but probably because she's a bit different by a wing of the Reading Labour Party including former Reading West MP Martin Salter and replaced by a candidate from that same wing, Tony Page, perennial council leader on transport, bus fiend and a person who nearly everybody in the council area does not especially like. (I will remove this comment if it breaks libel rules.) My mother and obviously many others as well saw his name on the ballot paper and voted Lib Dem. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 18, 2018 1:29:21 GMT
I was vaguely aware of it with regard to the big cities but didn't know it extended to other areas like Essex. I know that the south-west of an urban area is usually the most sought after due to the wind direction. I first read about that in Robert Waller's book. Do you live near the Lichfield to Redditch train line? I use that a lot, although usually not the southern section of it. The Lichfield- Redditch line runs through the "lowland" alongside the Birmingham & Worcester canal. There's a break in the hills where the river Rea cuts through them in a deep valley, which separates Edgbaston from Moseley. The line quoted by Chris from Brum runs past the bottom of my garden (through a deep cutting). Always pleasant to hear the trains chugging through at night.
There really are a lot of people from and near Birmingham on this site! I feel I have to be careful what I say because they are terribly well-informed.
You're talking about the Camp Hill line, aren't? |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
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Post by clyde1998 on Nov 18, 2018 9:04:02 GMT
The following stand out for me: 1997 - in the context of that election Wells and Aldridge Brownhills staying Conservative. 2001 - Conservatives gaining Dumfries & Galloway, Lib Dems gaining Ludlow, scale of Lib Dem win in Kingston & Surbiton and Torbay. 2005 - Conservatives gaining Reading East, Lib Dems winning Solihull. Labour holding Rochester & Strood and Gillingham. 2010 - Lib Dems losing Harrogate, Montgomeryshire and Oxford West & Abingdon. Labour holding Eltham and Gedling. Conservatives gaining North Warwickshire and Thurrock. 2015 - Conservatives winning Morley & Outwood, Telford, Bath, Derby South and Labour gaining Chester. Lib Dems holding Carshalton & Wellington in the context of the election. Conservatives holding Cannock Chase and North Warwickshire. 2017 - Labour gaining Canterbury, Kensington, Portsmouth South, Stroud and Lib Dems regaining Eastbourne. Overall, how badly the Conservatives performed in Midlands city seats. In hindsight, lots of these make sense now given prevailing trends which were not obvious at the time. Although I was very young in the 2005 GE, Reading East is my home turf and I'll explain. The sitting MP Jane Griffiths was deselected,I don't know exactly why but probably because she's a bit different by a wing of the Reading Labour Party including former Reading West MP Martin Salter and replaced by a candidate from that same wing, Tony Page, perennial council leader on transport, bus fiend and a person who nearly everybody in the council area does not especially like. (I will remove this comment if it breaks libel rules.) My mother and obviously many others as well saw his name on the ballot paper and voted Lib Dem. Apparently it was to do with (alleged) bullying by the local activists towards the sitting MP. I know someone who used to work for a number of local papers in the area, so I'll have to ask if he has any insight into this that many explain what went on within the local party to end up causing the deselection. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 18, 2018 10:21:21 GMT
There is little doubt some shady stuff went on, but equally clear that many found Griffiths a difficult person to get on with.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 23, 2018 9:51:45 GMT
There is little doubt some shady stuff went on, but equally clear that many found Griffiths a difficult person to get on with. I agree that she's a bit difficult sometimes, but that doesn't mean what happened to her was OK. I gather that it was something to do with the male activists in Reading East not wanting a female MP, not particularly that they didn't want Jane Griffiths herself. Given that Reading East CLP does still have a male majority, it seems possible to me. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 23, 2018 10:41:10 GMT
There is little doubt some shady stuff went on, but equally clear that many found Griffiths a difficult person to get on with. I agree that she's a bit difficult sometimes, but that doesn't mean what happened to her was OK. I gather that it was something to do with the male activists in Reading East not wanting a female MP, not particularly that they didn't want Jane Griffiths herself. Given that Reading East CLP does still have a male majority, it seems possible to me. Oh, completely agree it totally wasn't. |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 23, 2018 10:56:10 GMT
I agree that she's a bit difficult sometimes, but that doesn't mean what happened to her was OK. I gather that it was something to do with the male activists in Reading East not wanting a female MP, not particularly that they didn't want Jane Griffiths herself. Given that Reading East CLP does still have a male majority, it seems possible to me. Oh, completely agree it totally wasn't.
Griffiths was declared bankrupt, moved to Latvia for some reason and has apparently ended up in Strasbourg, with occasional visits to the UK to publicise her e-books. Hasn't tweeted since 2016.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 23, 2018 10:59:26 GMT
There was a period in 2004 when Martin Salter used to circulate Labour MPs with an email promoting his friend's printing business for their next leaflets, and it would be followed immediately by an email from Jane Griffiths saying their service was terrible and no-one should use them.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 23, 2018 11:05:55 GMT
There was a period in 2004 when Martin Salter used to circulate Labour MPs with an email promoting his friend's printing business for their next leaflets, and it would be followed immediately by an email from Jane Griffiths saying their service was terrible and no-one should use them. Those borough party meetings must have been something else at times. |
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