neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 21, 2018 1:51:02 GMT
1983 was an SDP hold in Caithness & Sutherland. The personal vote of the MP would have mattered more in that sort of constituency than the party label. Unlike you to take this position- it was a Labour win/hold in 1979 so technically an Alliance/SDP gain in 1983 even though it was the same MP. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 21, 2018 1:54:37 GMT
The extent of White flight from Outer London is also mind-boggling. Not especially: if you want to maintain your house price you get out before factors that might affect it get too big. Or you may just not want to live near a load of people who are culturally very different. Can you imagine what would happen if a load of coloureds* moved into Olney? It would empty out pretty quick. *This being exactly the sort of word that grumbling locals would use in this sort of context. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2018 6:09:54 GMT
How close Martin Bell got in Brentwood & Ongar in 2001 surprised me. I'm surprised you were aware of it given that you were about four at the time. 3 days away from being 4. My earliest memory is the Jubilee actually. |
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Post by swanarcadian on Apr 21, 2018 7:47:51 GMT
1983 was an SDP hold in Caithness & Sutherland. The personal vote of the MP would have mattered more in that sort of constituency than the party label. Unlike you to take this position- it was a Labour win/hold in 1979 so technically an Alliance/SDP gain in 1983 even though it was the same MP. This is a debate we've had before, whether gains and losses should be compared with the previous general election, or the state of play at dissolution of the previous parliament. Like most constituencies, there were boundary changes in Caithness and Sutherland anyway (to cover the whole of the Sutherland district) so I would definitely take the former view. |
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 21, 2018 7:54:09 GMT
Not one that surprised me (I think I was unaware of it at the time), but I have just remembered that the Green gain in Smith's Wood ward, Solihull in 2008 surprised the national party. When the Solihull Greens phoned the national party to ensure they knew about our win there they were initially told that, no, this line is for reporting Green wins.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2018 7:56:22 GMT
Some of the narrow holds for the Conservatives in 1992.
Especially Bolton North East.
The closeness of the Gordon result that year too.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 21, 2018 10:03:08 GMT
When my mum phoned me up in 1993 to tell me that the Lib Dems had actually won her (and formerly my) home ward of Bredon, Worcestershire in the county council elections.
Last year the Conservatives polled 72%.
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Post by swanarcadian on Apr 21, 2018 10:56:43 GMT
When my mum phoned me up in 1993 to tell me that the Lib Dems had actually won her (and formerly my) home ward of Bredon, Worcestershire in the county council elections. Last year the Conservatives polled 72%. Had the internet been widely available then, you could have said "I know, someone posted it on the Vote UK Forum". |
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Post by syorkssocialist on Apr 24, 2018 13:13:57 GMT
Rutherglen and Hamilton West in GE2017. I was fully prepared for Scottish Labour to end the night with no MPs if the unionist vote was too heavily split in Edinburgh South, but when I heard we took a seat where the SNP had won over 50% of the vote I couldn't help but cheer.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2018 8:03:46 GMT
The result for the election for Treasurer in the Oxford Union election last term - the winning candidate only won by 25 votes.
The victorious Presidential candidate on the same slate won by 73 votes.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2018 11:20:22 GMT
At the 2017 Election I was surprised by the results in many seats, particularly Gordon and Midlothian where they changed hands, but also by the fact the SNP maintained reasonable majorities in Kilarmnock and Loudoun, Paisley and Renfrew South, Edinburgh North, and Edinburgh South West, yet collapsed in several Glasgow area seats, including Glasgow NE. Perhaps the vote for the SNP is more durable in unionist areas. Ceredigion also surprised me as Mark Williams was in my mind a very well-known face.
Interestingly the results in 2015 didn't surprise me too much, not even Gower and Vale of Clwyd which I thought were possible, other than Ilford North. The losses of the Lib Dems in Eastbourne and Yeovil were surprising to me. I was also pleasantly surprised by the UUP gain in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, although their other surprising result in South Antrim didn't please me.
Not so much an election, but I was also surprised when Monmouthshire and Mendip voted to Remain in 2016 as well as how close Hounslow and Harborough were in the same referendum.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 10, 2018 20:02:01 GMT
If we're talking about from the start of a campaign to the end, I remember being certain that Stoiber would beat Schroeder in 2002 at the start of the campaign. Really? I was sceptical from the very beginning (too rightwing, rhetorically äh a äh dis- äh i mean äh a real äh disaster äh). Without the floods in EastGermany PDS would have made it into parliament and SPD&GREENS would have lost their majority of seats, SPD the relative majority, though (resulting in CDU&SPD, SPD&GREENS&FDP being unlikely). |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 10, 2018 21:10:39 GMT
Didn't expect the Tories to gain any seats in the London local elections outside Barnet.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 4, 2018 21:50:50 GMT
I just think the 1992 GE result in general. I know the polls tightened in the final days but the very worst I expected was a hung parliament!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2018 17:32:32 GMT
I just think the 1992 GE result in general. I know the polls tightened in the final days but the very worst I expected was a hung parliament! Me too if only for the wafer-thin majorities for the Conservatives in seats which voted Labour in 1979 - Edmonton, Hayes, Slough etc. But also the swings to the Tories in Aberdeenshire and the Pennines for example. Halifax was very nearly won back in 1992. |
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Sept 15, 2018 9:01:43 GMT
2017, overall.
I was expecting a similar result to 1979.
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Sept 15, 2018 9:05:11 GMT
Labour failing to gain Pembroke in February 1974 was a big shock at the time. Desmond Donnelly had defeated Gwilym Lloyd George in 1950 and built up a strong personal vote over the following 20 years. He split from Labour in 1968 - formed his own party - and fought the seat under his new colours in 1970. Donnelly polled just under 12000 votes with the Tories taking the seat - for the first time since 1924 - with a majority of 1231 over Labour.It was almost universally assumed that with Donnelly out of the picture that Labour would win the seat back at the following election - but it did not happen and the Tory - Nicholas Edwards - majority increased to nearly 1500. Labour had to wait until 1992 to win back the seat - under different boundaries. Just looking at the 1966 result, Labour's majority was 5,931 (11.97%) so it would have been a potential Tory target even without Donnelly's defection. There had even been a Lab to Con swing in that seat between 1964 and 1966. There were numerous seats the Conservatives won in 1970 that had been Labour held since the war (North Norfolk was an example). It would appear that a lot of Donnelly's former voters went over to the resurgent Liberals in 1974. Rural Wales (at any rate, English-speaking rural Wales) has shifted to the Conservatives quite strongly since 1970. |
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seanf
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Post by seanf on Sept 15, 2018 9:09:00 GMT
Location on a hill? I don't get that. Does that make it more likely to be Tory? Basically yes. In urban areas the middle class suburbs were built on hills in order to get fresh air and stay clear of the pollution. The plebs were clustered in slums down in the valleys. Surprised you are not aware of this - pretty much any city or large town shows this pattern. I live at the top of the range of hills south of Birmingham where all the smart Victorian villas were built. Even now it's pretty Conservative (relatively speaking). I wasn't aware of that. I knew that quite a lot of places had a posh West End, because the prevailing wind blew Eastward. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2018 10:13:03 GMT
2017, overall. I was expecting a similar result to 1979. I’ll be honest I was respecting a result like 1987. And even after the exit poll I thought it might be like 2015 but once Ashfield and Dudley North declared I knew it wasn’t happening. It’s good to be humbled now and then. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2018 10:16:34 GMT
The results in Richmond Park and Stoke South in 2017.
My predictions were:
Richmond Park: CON WIN Maj. 74 (actual maj. 45)
Stoke South: CON GAIN Maj. 963 (actual maj. 663)
Given that I was wrong about Newcastle-under-Lyme and Perth & North Perthshire I was surprised these weren’t too far off what I was predicting.
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