Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2018 11:32:28 GMT
They thought I had no chance apparently. I want to win because I feel more state comp representation is needed in such an influential institution and because I believe slates should be banned as these are a barrier to entry. I was 6 votes off being eliminated 2nd and 6 votes off winning. Poor answers.
Of course it is inherent that is what they thought..................WHY is the question?
Your given reason for standing would turn me right off just it has done for others. It is a piss poor reason of the worst gesture politcs grandstanding nature.
If elected (fat chance in my opinion) what do you want to EFFECT and to DO?
More power to members. Choice of emergency debates etc. Referendum on whether slates should be allowed. I would hope to encourage others from under-represented groups to run just as other state comp educated people have done when they’ve been successful in it. But you’ve made me feel sufficiently bad about doing it again so no point in bothering I guess... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2018 11:36:09 GMT
They thought I had no chance apparently. I want to win because I feel more state comp representation is needed in such an influential institution and because I believe slates should be banned as these are a barrier to entry. I was 6 votes off being eliminated 2nd and 6 votes off winning. Poor answers.
Of course it is inherent that is what they thought..................WHY is the question?
Your given reason for standing would turn me right off just it has done for others. It is a piss poor reason of the worst gesture politcs grandstanding nature.
If elected (fat chance in my opinion) what do you want to EFFECT and to DO?
PM me. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 31, 2018 12:00:12 GMT
So apparently at the count for the Oxford Union election last term they took bets on who would come last for Standing (10 people ran for 7 spots) and all but 1 thought it would be me. Anyone got any advice on running for election baving list one previously? I’d greatly appreciate it. Going back to your original post rather than the subsequent ones i'd say a couple of things... 1. If you want to beat the machine you have to build a better machine. You can't just hope that people will vote for you, you have to try and ensure that they do. Just speak to as many people as possible. Some will tell you to get lost - they weren't going to vote for you anyway. 2. Ask yourself what mistakes you made and don't repeat them, even if you thought they were really good points at the time. 3. Definitely stand again. Make light of anything to do with this betting thing - this may have been at least partially to unsettle certain candidates . People find it difficult to deal with a candidate with a sense of humour about the whole thing and you take away one of their best weapons. Get in there first. Try not to take anything personally. 4. Beat the odds? - they aren't that high, and aren't inherently against you in this case. it's not as though you are a Tory standing in central Tottenham or a Labour candiate in rural sussex. |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 31, 2018 12:27:25 GMT
Poor answers.
Of course it is inherent that is what they thought..................WHY is the question?
Your given reason for standing would turn me right off just it has done for others. It is a piss poor reason of the worst gesture politcs grandstanding nature.
If elected (fat chance in my opinion) what do you want to EFFECT and to DO?
More power to members. Choice of emergency debates etc. Referendum on whether slates should be allowed. I would hope to encourage others from under-represented groups to run just as other state comp educated people have done when they’ve been successful in it. But you’ve made me feel sufficiently bad about doing it again so no point in bothering I guess... Well! If you are put off that easily certainly don't stand.
The point being one has to have a good reason to stand and a programme that has some attraction to others. It is not enough to state you are different, not on a slate and from a Comp. To which the appropriate answer is 'So What'?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2018 12:28:12 GMT
So apparently at the count for the Oxford Union election last term they took bets on who would come last for Standing (10 people ran for 7 spots) and all but 1 thought it would be me. Anyone got any advice on running for election baving list one previously? I’d greatly appreciate it. Going back to your original post rather than the subsequent ones i'd say a couple of things... 1. If you want to beat the machine you have to build a better machine. You can't just hope that people will vote for you, you have to try and ensure that they do. Just speak to as many people as possible. Some will tell you to get lost - they weren't going to vote for you anyway. 2. Ask yourself what mistakes you made and don't repeat them, even if you thought they were really good points at the time. 3. Definitely stand again. Make light of anything to do with this betting thing - this may have been at least partially to unsettle certain candidates . People find it difficult to deal with a candidate with a sense of humour about the whole thing and you take away one of their best weapons. Get in there first. Try not to take anything personally. 4. Beat the odds? - they aren't that high, and aren't inherently against you in this case. it's not as though you are a Tory standing in central Tottenham or a Labour candiate in rural sussex. Thanks. That’s really helpful. Would you mind me PMing you? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2018 12:30:14 GMT
More power to members. Choice of emergency debates etc. Referendum on whether slates should be allowed. I would hope to encourage others from under-represented groups to run just as other state comp educated people have done when they’ve been successful in it. But you’ve made me feel sufficiently bad about doing it again so no point in bothering I guess... Well! If you are put off that easily certainly don't stand.
The point being one has to have a good reason to stand and a programme that has some attraction to others. It is not enough to state you are different, not on a slate and from a Comp. To which the appropriate answer is 'So What'?
No no I just need a thicker skin. You’re 100% right. I’ll take your advice. Could I PM you?? |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 31, 2018 12:39:45 GMT
Well! If you are put off that easily certainly don't stand.
The point being one has to have a good reason to stand and a programme that has some attraction to others. It is not enough to state you are different, not on a slate and from a Comp. To which the appropriate answer is 'So What'?
No no I just need a thicker skin. You’re 100% right. I’ll take your advice. Could I PM you?? Yes. But same reasoning. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2018 16:58:27 GMT
I was surprised by the extent to which Colne Valley and Penistone converged in 2017.
A majority of 900 for Lab in Colne Valley and 1300 in Penistone.
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Post by wjm2000 on Apr 3, 2018 17:44:35 GMT
Couldn't believe Labour won Warwick & Leamington and Reading East last year.
I know it sounds odd, as they've held them during my lifetime and our majorities there weren't massive, but I'm too young to remember pre-2014 politics and I kind of assumed (especially after Corbyn became Labour leader) that they wouldn't win middle class seats like that for a long time.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2018 17:55:06 GMT
Couldn't believe Labour won Warwick & Leamington and Reading East last year. I know it sounds odd, as they've held them during my lifetime and our majorities there weren't massive, but I'm too young to remember pre-2014 politics and I kind of assumed (especially after Corbyn became Labour leader) that they wouldn't win middle class seats like that for a long time. When you consider that Warwick was the only council area in the West Midlands that voted Remain and that since 2010 the constituency has been much more tightly drawn around the urban area AND the students, it’s not that much of a shock given the dynamics and trends of the 2017 GE. Reading East also has a high student population and had a strong Remain vote. What’s sad about these results is I think that a lot of people voted Labour believing that the party would eradicate student debt and pursue a soft Brexit - how likely were either? |
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Post by swanarcadian on Apr 5, 2018 5:00:56 GMT
Brent Central in 2010. Still don't understand how Labour lost it. That was a very candidate dependent result. |
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Post by justin124 on Apr 6, 2018 22:48:54 GMT
Labour failing to gain Pembroke in February 1974 was a big shock at the time. Desmond Donnelly had defeated Gwilym Lloyd George in 1950 and built up a strong personal vote over the following 20 years. He split from Labour in 1968 - formed his own party - and fought the seat under his new colours in 1970. Donnelly polled just under 12000 votes with the Tories taking the seat - for the first time since 1924 - with a majority of 1231 over Labour.It was almost universally assumed that with Donnelly out of the picture that Labour would win the seat back at the following election - but it did not happen and the Tory - Nicholas Edwards - majority increased to nearly 1500. Labour had to wait until 1992 to win back the seat - under different boundaries.
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Post by swanarcadian on Apr 6, 2018 23:07:09 GMT
Labour failing to gain Pembroke in February 1974 was a big shock at the time. Desmond Donnelly had defeated Gwilym Lloyd George in 1950 and built up a strong personal vote over the following 20 years. He split from Labour in 1968 - formed his own party - and fought the seat under his new colours in 1970. Donnelly polled just under 12000 votes with the Tories taking the seat - for the first time since 1924 - with a majority of 1231 over Labour.It was almost universally assumed that with Donnelly out of the picture that Labour would win the seat back at the following election - but it did not happen and the Tory - Nicholas Edwards - majority increased to nearly 1500. Labour had to wait until 1992 to win back the seat - under different boundaries. Just looking at the 1966 result, Labour's majority was 5,931 (11.97%) so it would have been a potential Tory target even without Donnelly's defection. There had even been a Lab to Con swing in that seat between 1964 and 1966. There were numerous seats the Conservatives won in 1970 that had been Labour held since the war (North Norfolk was an example). It would appear that a lot of Donnelly's former voters went over to the resurgent Liberals in 1974. |
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Post by justin124 on Apr 7, 2018 0:13:42 GMT
I don't think the comparison with North Norfolk in 1970 is particularly relevant - in that significant demographic change was clearly already taking place in the latter seat as evidenced by the decline in the Agricultural Workers' Union in the area.
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and well recall that the constituency had a reputation for swinging against the national tide - as exemplified by the Labour gain in 1950 and Donnelly's consolidation of his position in subsequent elections.The anti-Labour swing of 1966 probably owed a fair bit to local divisions within the CLP . Several branches were highly critical of Donnelly's opposition to Steel Nationalisation and declined to endorse him.
Had Donnelly not contested the 1970 election , I have little doubt that Labour would have retained the seat pretty comfortably - given that the Tory majority was just 1231. Observers of the local political scene were then led astray by several factors - a failure to take on board the extent to which Donnelly's support was personal to him rather than strictly Labour - little allowance for a first term incumbency bonus for the new Tory MP - Nicholas Edwards - who was widely judged to be competent if not inspiring - and the fact that in Wales the Liberal revival at the February 1974 election came more at Labour - rather than Tory - expense.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Apr 7, 2018 6:37:11 GMT
At the time I was surprised how comfortably Mary Creagh retainer Wakefield last year.
Though the Tories there followed the national campaign, and their candidate has forever been overrated since his close loss to Ed Balls back in 2010.
Considering the town was 60%+ for Brexit and Creagh not being the most active/interested local MP...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2018 12:12:35 GMT
At the time I was surprised how comfortably Mary Creagh retainer Wakefield last year. Though the Tories there followed the national campaign, and their candidate has forever been overrated since his close loss to Ed Balls back in 2010. Considering the town was 60%+ for Brexit and Creagh not being the most active/interested local MP... Yes. Given the swings in Hemsworth and Morley it was a bad result. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 7, 2018 12:19:23 GMT
Or maybe it showed that Wakefield is a somewhat different seat to those two, despite its geographical proximity?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2018 16:03:17 GMT
How do I say this politely: Wakefield has Muslims, as well as public sector middle class folk. It's the same reason why Colne Valley swung the opposite way to Penistone @conservativeestimate. In my humble opinion anyway. Colne Valley also had a much lower Leave vote - in fact it voted Remain. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2018 16:33:42 GMT
Colne Valley also had a much lower Leave vote - in fact it voted Remain. ooo... straying into controversial territory there. The last MP disagreed. Depends who you ask. If it voted Leave it did so by less than average. It’s pretty clear Calder Valley, Colne Valley and High Peak behave more like Greater Manchester seats as opposed to NE Derbyshire or Penistone. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 21, 2018 1:49:06 GMT
2017: Portsmouth South; the number of SNP losses (especially to Labour) in Scotland; Tories winning Mansfield when not getting an overall majority. 2015: The overall result was surprising and frustrating. I think the sheer extent of the Lib Dem collapse in LD/Con battlegrounds, Twickenham and Bath in particular, was the most surprising aspect. 2010: Belfast East (a very pleasant surprise); Oxford West & Abingdon (although boundary changes should be noted); Lib Dems having a net loss of seats but still managing to win Redcar. 2005: Solihull. 2001: I can't really think of any, other than maybe Fermanagh & South Tyrone. 1997: Hove. I also wasn't quite expecting the scale of Irvine Patnick's defeat in my own constituency. How close Martin Bell got in Brentwood & Ongar in 2001 surprised me. I'm surprised you were aware of it given that you were about four at the time. |
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