jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,893
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Post by jamie on Sept 26, 2021 14:21:33 GMT
So, you're the SPD and you've just finished an election in first place with under 30% of the vote. The FDP have decided they won't talk to you, or decided they won't govern with the Greens and you don't fancy SPD-CDU-FDP. Basically your options are -GroKo -Kenya -Red-red-green which do you decide is the least suicidally stupid? GroKo - Prevents the Union from being a credible opposition next time, particularly good for holding onto centrist voters. Kenya - Above, but also prevents the Greens from being a credible opposition and will mean a more left leaning government. R2G - Best on a policy level, prevents left leaning leakage next time and may kill off Die Linke, but easiest to imagine a rejuvenated right wing opposition. Therefore, Kenya is better than GroKo. Kenya is also probably less electorally suicidal than R2G but the latter does have its potential upsides.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 26, 2021 15:11:21 GMT
Postal vote is around 40% according to ORF radio, making exit polls more uncertain as they rely on sampling at the polling stations.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 26, 2021 15:50:46 GMT
Prediction:
SPD: 23.5% CDU/CSU: 23.0% GRN: 14.0% FDP: 13.0% AfD: 12.5% LNK: 6.0%
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,745
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Post by myth11 on Sept 26, 2021 15:55:56 GMT
Prediction Court case over the 2020 reforms or if the South Schleswig Voters' Association wins a seat.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 26, 2021 16:01:02 GMT
ZDF
SPD 26 Union 24 Grüne 14.5 FPD 12 AfD 10 Linke 5 Others 8.5
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,280
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Post by andrea on Sept 26, 2021 16:06:55 GMT
ARD
SPD 25 CDU/CSU 25 Grune 15 FDP 11 AfD 11 Linke 5
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 26, 2021 16:11:51 GMT
If these figures are right, only a grand coalition would have a two party majority (counting the Union as one party). Coalition negotiations are likely to take many months.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 26, 2021 16:12:48 GMT
It looks like the CDU/CSU have the numbers to stay in office if they can cobble together a coalition with the Greens and the FDP but as we said earlier that must be unlikely.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 26, 2021 16:12:58 GMT
ARD SPD 25 CDU/CSU 25 Grune 15 FDP 11 AfD 11 Linke 5 I so hope the communists get just slightly less than that.😅
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 26, 2021 16:13:11 GMT
What's the best place for viewing results?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 26, 2021 16:14:01 GMT
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,893
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Post by jamie on Sept 26, 2021 16:17:02 GMT
In Berlin the exit polls have a 1% SPD lead and a 2% Green lead. Given the SPD looked to be opening up a decent lead that’s surprisingly good for the Greens.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 26, 2021 16:17:46 GMT
In Germany which party gets first chance at forming a coalition — the party that wins the most votes or the main party in the current governing coalition?
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 26, 2021 16:17:51 GMT
I'm watching it on DW.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,270
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Post by peterl on Sept 26, 2021 16:25:33 GMT
Anywhere with some updating tables or barcharts?
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 26, 2021 16:49:46 GMT
In Berlin the exit polls have a 1% SPD lead and a 2% Green lead. Given the SPD looked to be opening up a decent lead that’s surprisingly good for the Greens. Not totally surprising - SPD's Barley viewed too openly towards a coalition with CDU&FDP.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 26, 2021 16:49:50 GMT
It looks like the CDU/CSU have the numbers to stay in office if they can cobble together a coalition with the Greens and the FDP but as we said earlier that must be unlikely. It is a bit more likely if The Union and SPD basically level as opposed to the SPD being several points ahead.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 26, 2021 16:50:34 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 26, 2021 16:53:01 GMT
In Germany which party gets first chance at forming a coalition — the party that wins the most votes or the main party in the current governing coalition? Formally the president "orders" 1 party with negotiating after having contacted all parties. Usually the strongest one, but not, if the other parties signal preferences for another constellation.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 26, 2021 17:09:41 GMT
In Germany which party gets first chance at forming a coalition — the party that wins the most votes or the main party in the current governing coalition? Formally the president "orders" 1 party with negotiating after having contacted all parties. Usually the strongest one, but not, if the other parties signal preferences for another constellation. Thanks. A contrast to this country where the current government gets first shot at forming a coalition even if they're not in first place, provided no other party has won an overall majority. That's why Gordon Brown stayed in office in 2010 for a few days as he tried to arrange a coalition with the LDs despite coming second in votes and seats.
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