Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,212
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 25, 2021 18:10:45 GMT
(does Germany have rules against campaigning the day before like some other countries?) No.
|
|
WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,086
|
Post by WJ on Sept 25, 2021 18:41:22 GMT
Bielefeld Again, little sign of an election Well, you know... There might be something in that. This is a common SDP poster around town. No "real" candidate would sell themselves this way, would they?
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 25, 2021 19:01:51 GMT
Presumably a reference to Dr Oetker?
(Another organisation who remind you that the Reinheitsgebot isn't about quality)
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,212
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 25, 2021 19:18:44 GMT
Which pollster had 2017 the lowest DeViations from the actual OutCome? Believe it or not - it was INSA!:
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,212
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 25, 2021 21:51:05 GMT
Do people like to think INSA is not the best polling agency? INSA was established by someone, who left CDU-Thüringen because it was too left for him and adviced AfD; additionally they work - apart from conservative ("rightextreme") media like "Junge Freiheit" - for the tabloid "Bild" and have a tendency to provide spectacular numbers. Also many see critical, that they rely partly on YouGov-data.
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Sept 25, 2021 21:57:32 GMT
They were also in the news for being radically wrong in Sachsen Anhalt (where everybody else was almost as wrong) and remarkably cavalier about it afterwards.
It's not as if their federal numbers now are in any way outside the herd though so whatev.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Sept 25, 2021 22:47:37 GMT
They were also in the news for being radically wrong in Sachsen Anhalt (where everybody else was almost as wrong) and remarkably cavalier about it afterwards. I remember the story at the time being how the CDU did better and the AFD worse than expected, but i didn’t realise INSA underestimated the former’s lead by a whopping 16%!
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 25, 2021 23:57:50 GMT
Do people like to think INSA is not the best polling agency? INSA was established by someone, who left CDU-Thüringen because it was too left for him and adviced AfD; additionally they work - apart from conservative ("rightextreme") media like "Junge Freiheit" - for the tabloid "Bild" and have a tendency to provide spectacular numbers. Also many see critical, that they rely partly on YouGov-data. When I was a student, we had a lovely politics student from Bavaria teaching our spoken German classes. And she told us that, upon reunification, the CSU tried to force the CDU to allow it to add Thuringia to its "portfolio". How true that is, I'm not sure, but she had been heavily involved in the Junge Union.
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Sept 26, 2021 10:47:10 GMT
"Britain Elects @britainelects
It's election day in Germany!
The final polls according to the @newstatesman 's poll tracker:
SPD: 25.5% (+5.0) CDU/CSU: 21.5% (-11.4) GRN: 15.7% (+6.8) FDP: 11.4% (+0.7) AfD: 11.1% (-1.5) LNK: 6.4% (-2.8)
Chgs. w/ GE2017"
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Sept 26, 2021 11:41:51 GMT
On those figures above the Union + Greens + FDP are on 48.6%, so maybe it isn't necessarily game over for the Union.
|
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Sept 26, 2021 11:54:34 GMT
On those figures above the Union + Greens + FDP are on 48.6%, so maybe it isn't necessarily game over for the Union. I honestly don't see how that could happen, it would be madness for all of the parties involved. The Union need to go into opposition and they are acting like a party that deep down knows that to be the case.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
|
Post by johng on Sept 26, 2021 12:24:40 GMT
|
|
myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,732
|
Post by myth11 on Sept 26, 2021 12:36:33 GMT
On those figures above the Union + Greens + FDP are on 48.6%, so maybe it isn't necessarily game over for the Union. I will sum up the Green FDP problem in one line of FDP policy . "The best climate protector is the market economy". I may be very wrong but I am going for a coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Sept 26, 2021 12:37:12 GMT
On those figures above the Union + Greens + FDP are on 48.6%, so maybe it isn't necessarily game over for the Union. I think the Union could survive leading another government (though it’s unclear if they’d rejuvenate in opposition or suffer from not being the incumbents anymore) and I think the FDP would do better as part of a right leaning coalition. However, the Greens would likely have lost significant support under Jamaica months ago, and they would certainly do so now Laschet is hideously unpopular and the SPD look likely to finish 1st. Their supporters will now expect a coalition with the SPD. And given Jamaica failed in 2017 and the main difference this time would be a stronger Green presence, either the Greens or FDP would have to further backdown from their principles and suffer the consequences.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Sept 26, 2021 12:41:12 GMT
I will sum up the Green FDP problem in one line of FDP policy . "The best climate protector is the market economy". I may be very wrong but I am going for a coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP. I agree with the first point, but not the second. I know the SPD have a death wish but surely even they are not stupid enough to fall into that trap?!
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
|
Post by jamie on Sept 26, 2021 12:48:52 GMT
Laschet doesn’t even know how to vote properly 😂
|
|
myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,732
|
Post by myth11 on Sept 26, 2021 12:52:15 GMT
I will sum up the Green FDP problem in one line of FDP policy . "The best climate protector is the market economy". I may be very wrong but I am going for a coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP. I agree with the first point, but not the second. I know the SPD have a death wish but surely even they are not stupid enough to fall into that trap?! Its how German PR works and the prize of Chancellor will likely be the SPD,s.
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Sept 26, 2021 13:19:48 GMT
Laschet doesn’t even know how to vote properly 😂 Arse bomb is an interesting phrase.
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,488
|
Post by European Lefty on Sept 26, 2021 14:04:09 GMT
So, you're the SPD and you've just finished an election in first place with under 30% of the vote. The FDP have decided they won't talk to you, or decided they won't govern with the Greens and you don't fancy SPD-CDU-FDP. Basically your options are
-GroKo -Kenya -Red-red-green
which do you decide is the least suicidally stupid?
|
|
WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,086
|
Post by WJ on Sept 26, 2021 14:16:19 GMT
Red-Red-Green
Assuming that Dark-red and Green are willing to work together. Otherwise Red-Red/Red-Green with confidence and supply from the third party?
While it might be a self-inflicted gunshot to the head, it might be one of those ones you see on TV shows where the shot misses all the important bits?
|
|