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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 23, 2021 13:14:33 GMT
why is there even an individual constituency candidate spot from 1994 and where in the hell would it have aired!?
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,893
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Post by jamie on Sept 23, 2021 14:37:41 GMT
Final YouGov poll (weirdly they’ve incorrectly calculated the combined Union list vote change by using only the CDU 2017 vote).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 23, 2021 14:51:42 GMT
In the 1994 version, he keeps saying "In Bonn, they say that the Sauerland is {insert cliché}. It's very German in its sense that Bonn is a faraway, chi-chi place, rather than a largish town 2 hours away. Imagine a parallel universe where our capital is in Cheltenham and a candidate in Kettering is saying "bloody Cheltenham people say..."
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 23, 2021 16:02:29 GMT
In the 1994 version, he keeps saying "In Bonn, they say that the Sauerland is {insert cliché}. It's very German in its sense that Bonn is a faraway, chi-chi place, rather than a largish town 2 hours away. Imagine a parallel universe where our capital is in Cheltenham and a candidate in Kettering is saying "bloody Cheltenham people say..." by car from Arnsberg (if you're very lucky). Take a train from Brilon and you're looking at 4 hours. The problem is that you can't quite bypass the Ruhr vortex. But it doesn't matter because Bonn doesn't connote the rl city, which few people ever visit (maybe switch Cheltenham and Kettering in yr example?) It means the political establishment and the wide world (or at least West Germany) in general. "Everybody's looking down on us poor wee yokels, and okay, so maybe yes, they do have a point, but let's still all keep voting CDU to rub it in their smug faces" is the message of that 94 clip. It's attempting a sort of irony-but-not. [/Sauerland family connections]
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 23, 2021 17:53:24 GMT
In the 1994 version, he keeps saying "In Bonn, they say that the Sauerland is {insert cliché}. It's very German in its sense that Bonn is a faraway, chi-chi place, rather than a largish town 2 hours away. Imagine a parallel universe where our capital is in Cheltenham and a candidate in Kettering is saying "bloody Cheltenham people say..." by car from Arnsberg (if you're very lucky). Take a train from Brilon and you're looking at 4 hours. The problem is that you can't quite bypass the Ruhr vortex. But it doesn't matter because Bonn doesn't connote the rl city, which few people ever visit (maybe switch Cheltenham and Kettering in yr example?) It means the political establishment and the wide world (or at least West Germany) in general. "Everybody's looking down on us poor wee yokels, and okay, so maybe yes, they do have a point, but let's still all keep voting CDU to rub it in their smug faces" is the message of that 94 clip. It's attempting a sort of irony-but-not. [/Sauerland family connections] Oh, I got the reference, it just seems odd when you go to Bonn and realise that it is essentially a backwater itself! Bönnsch family connections here...
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,893
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Post by jamie on Sept 24, 2021 14:39:51 GMT
With the caveat that there may be herding going on (6/8 pollsters have the SPD on 25%), the Union look to have bottomed out and may be making a small recovery in the final week or so.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 24, 2021 15:28:54 GMT
With the caveat that there may be hoarding going on (6/8 pollsters have the SPD on 25%), the Union look to have bottomed out and may be making a small recovery in the final week or so. Without such a small final recovery of the Union i would have been sceptical of the OpinionPolls. But so they seem to be allright.
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Post by ibfc on Sept 24, 2021 18:18:26 GMT
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Post by European Lefty on Sept 24, 2021 23:45:21 GMT
Majority: 393 GroKo - 409Red/Green - 353 Overpriced chocolate - 320 Red/Red - 275 Kenya - 541 Germany - 505 Jamaica - 416 Red/Red/Green - 407
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Post by seanryanj on Sept 25, 2021 1:28:52 GMT
Are there really going to be an extra 76 seats this time? 785 seems like an awful lot of MPs. What is the current house of Lords total? At least the german house is elected.
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 25, 2021 6:48:49 GMT
by car from Arnsberg (if you're very lucky). Take a train from Brilon and you're looking at 4 hours. The problem is that you can't quite bypass the Ruhr vortex. But it doesn't matter because Bonn doesn't connote the rl city, which few people ever visit (maybe switch Cheltenham and Kettering in yr example?) It means the political establishment and the wide world (or at least West Germany) in general. "Everybody's looking down on us poor wee yokels, and okay, so maybe yes, they do have a point, but let's still all keep voting CDU to rub it in their smug faces" is the message of that 94 clip. It's attempting a sort of irony-but-not. [/Sauerland family connections] Oh, I got the reference, it just seems odd when you go to Bonn and realise that it is essentially a backwater itself! Bönnsch family connections here... Wasn't nicknamed the Bundesdorf for nothing. However, as someone who has been to Bonn and to Brilon, yeah, Brilon really is a backwater, but not so much as say up in the Hünsruck.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 25, 2021 10:31:59 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on Sept 25, 2021 10:37:33 GMT
My guess:
SPD - 25% The Union - 23% Greens - 13% AfD- 11% FDP- 11% Linke 6%
With others making up the rest.
SPD/Green/FDP coalition with the Liberals to get hammered next time around.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 25, 2021 10:49:24 GMT
My guess: SPD - 25% The Union - 23% Greens - 13% AfD- 11% FDP- 11% Linke 6% With others making up the rest. SPD/Green/FDP coalition with the Liberals to get hammered next time around. With The Union publicly saying they would be open to serve in a Grand Coalition, in the national interest, while privately making sure it doesn't happen.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,893
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Post by jamie on Sept 25, 2021 12:57:54 GMT
Thread on how candidates perceive their own party.
Union - A mixture of centrist along with centre right moderately progressive OR moderately conservative. SPD - Centre left progressives, with a few centrist progressives. Green - The SPD but without a few people perceiving the party as left wing or centrist. FDP - Centre right progressives. AFD - Right of centre and conservative, but with little agreement on how much so of either. Linke - Left and progressive (lol)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 25, 2021 14:29:09 GMT
That sounds more like old Italian DC rather than the CDU.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 25, 2021 14:47:31 GMT
My guess: SPD - 25% The Union - 23% Greens - 13% AfD- 11% FDP- 11% Linke 6% With others making up the rest. SPD/Green/FDP coalition with the Liberals to get hammered next time around. With The Union publicly saying they would be open to serve in a Grand Coalition, in the national interest, while privately making sure it doesn't happen. It's interesting how much the press here seem to think that Laschet and his woes are somehow nothing to do with Merkel. AKK doesn't even get a mention. This is the Establishment that Merkel built. There will surely be a reckoning within the CDU afterwards, with the strong tacit support of Söder. The likes of Peter Altmeier will have to be removed. The problem is that Merkel leaves behind an extremely old cabinet with pretty much nobody under 50- just Spahn, Julia Klöckner and Helge Braun I think. There's not much talent in the CDU pipeline, arguably more in the CSU but it's a bit thin. Spahn would surely be a likely frontrunner but there could be all sorts of surprise moves. If they really want to implode, they'll go with Anja Karliczek.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Sept 25, 2021 16:55:34 GMT
Lovely day here in Bielefeld today and the town centre was packed with people although it is looking like it will rain all day tomorrow in this part of the country.
Again, little sign of an election going on the day before the event. FDP had a stall in the centre, but no active canvassing noticed from any other parties (does Germany have rules against campaigning the day before like some other countries?) Some lamp post signs starting to look a little worse for wear- a few collapsing Greens (no overt signs of vandalism) and several obviously vandalised CDU posters.
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,745
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Post by myth11 on Sept 25, 2021 17:21:56 GMT
My guess: SPD - 25% The Union - 23% Greens - 13% AfD- 11% FDP- 11% Linke 6% With others making up the rest. SPD/Green/FDP coalition with the Liberals to get hammered next time around. Getting the Greens and FDP into coalition will take some work.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 25, 2021 17:59:40 GMT
Bielefeld Again, little sign of an election Well, you know...
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