|
Post by markgoodair on Sept 5, 2012 3:24:58 GMT
Have the Pirates made much of an impact in the Langtags that they have been elected to?
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Sept 5, 2012 12:21:51 GMT
Have the Pirates made much of an impact in the Langtags that they have been elected to? I only tangentially follow the Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin, but they seem to be holding up in the polls there and getting a fair bit of coverage.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Sept 12, 2012 15:01:40 GMT
Die Piraten do appear to be trending downwards now. They're at 6% in today's Forsa poll and below Die Linke for the first time in a while. Readers will be happy to know that I have 2300+ pages of Kaiserreich Reichstag election results winging their way to me ;D I think the FDP are on the slide again as well. Might be a 4 party Bundestag.
|
|
|
Post by erlend on Sept 12, 2012 17:48:05 GMT
Have wondered about the results in the ethnic areas, Alsace,/Schleswig/Prussian partition of Poland.
Re the FDP if they are hovering about the 5% at the end they will probably get loaned a few CDU voters (wink wink nudge nudge) as it is very difficult for the right to get in without them.
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Sept 12, 2012 18:21:23 GMT
It will also be interesting to see if the CSU can regain their overall majority in Bavaria next year. They need about 47% (+3.6) to be assured of that and are currently polling 46%. FPD are in a coalition with the CSU. If they drop below the magic 5% figure it will certainly make a CSU majority a damn sign easier.
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Sept 12, 2012 18:24:48 GMT
Last time Die Linke only narrowly missed out on winning seats in Bavaria.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Sept 12, 2012 18:27:38 GMT
Have wondered about the results in the ethnic areas, Alsace/Schleswig/Prussian partition of Poland. Re the FDP if they are hovering about the 5% at the end they will probably get loaned a few CDU voters (wink wink nudge nudge) as it is very difficult for the right to get in without them. Only one seat in Schleswig returned Dänenpartei members. Elsaß-Lothringen returned mainly various Independents who formed an group, but that was starting to fade. Most of Posen returned Polenpartei members except for Bromberg and the border areas retained in the Grenzemark, Westpreußen was mainly german parties, ditto all but the far east of Schlesien.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Sept 12, 2012 18:30:45 GMT
Last time Die Linke only narrowly missed out on winning seats in Bavaria. Not looking so good this time. CSU 46% SPD 20% Grüne 12% FW 8% Piraten 6% FDP 3% SED 2% was polling for the Landtag a month ago. Of course the Landtagwahl will be very close to the probably Bundestagwahl date.
|
|
|
Post by A Brown on Sept 20, 2012 11:11:59 GMT
The CDU/CSU is currently at 38% with both Emnid and Forsa with the SPD at 26% in both.
It's starting to look plausible even that Merkel's coalition could be reelected next year although the odds are still against that.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2012 11:20:37 GMT
I know this is probably fairly complex - but what is up with the SPD??
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2012 11:25:51 GMT
I know this is probably fairly complex - but what is up with the SPD?? well domestically Germany is doing wel, economy is still growing despite the Euro and is Merkel seen as a good or bad leader by the population ?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2012 11:35:27 GMT
Wouldn't surprise me - maybe it illustrates again that "grand coalitions" are rarely a good thing for the left??
|
|
thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
|
Post by thetop on Sept 20, 2012 11:47:37 GMT
The SPD seem very Blairite, it's probably that their voters hop between them and the CDU more readily than you'd expect.
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,640
|
Post by john07 on Sept 20, 2012 14:26:12 GMT
Wouldn't surprise me - maybe it illustrates again that "grand coalitions" are rarely a good thing for the left?? The Grand Coalition under Kiesinger from 1966-69 paved the way for the SDP-FDP administrations under Brandt and Schmidt that ran from 1969 to 1982. You could argue the same case for the Churchill wartime coalition that led to the Attlee administration from 1945-51. Both allowed parties who had been out of Government for many years to establish themselves and win the subsequent election.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Sept 22, 2012 6:08:39 GMT
We now have all of the last three polls showing Mutti 38%, SPD 26%. Al, it's not just the usual suspect. The Pirates are now even on a downswing in Berlin. Hmm, now shall I go to Hannover in January?
|
|
|
Post by A Brown on Oct 2, 2012 22:54:36 GMT
SPD is at 29% with Forsa, their joint highest showing since before the last bundestagswahl.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,371
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 2, 2012 23:52:23 GMT
Probably related to the SPD picking a candidate for the elections next year (its Peer Steinbrück for those that don't know).
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,640
|
Post by john07 on Oct 3, 2012 10:24:01 GMT
I know this is probably fairly complex - but what is up with the SPD?? well domestically Germany is doing wel, economy is still growing despite the Euro and is Merkel seen as a good or bad leader by the population ? Germany are doing well because of the Euro not despite it.. If they still used the DM, the rise in its value as the Peseta, Lira, Dracma, Escudo, Punt, etc. plummeted downwards would have destroyed Germany's competitive advantage in manufacturing.
|
|
|
Post by A Brown on Oct 6, 2012 5:58:44 GMT
The CDU/CSU is on 39% and the SPD on 31% with Infratest Ditmap.
I have a feeling we could see a trend back to a large two party share now.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Oct 10, 2012 10:02:16 GMT
Finally! The SPD has reached 30% with Forsa!!! It's still Forsa ;D
|
|