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Post by A Brown on Jun 3, 2012 11:35:52 GMT
Anyone care to comment on the chances of the Pirates actually getting 10%+ Can't see them getting over 10%. Perhaps 8-9% is most likely.
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Post by erlend on Jun 3, 2012 19:11:05 GMT
I would guess that the FDP will get comfortably over the threshold but that may well only be 6-7%. Gut feeling is that the Piraten will beat them but not by a lot (range 6-9%). I assume the Greens will make double figures. Have less of a feeling for the PDS (etc) but suspect their base vote will hold up with the Ossies and a limited Wessie vote so again fairly level with the FDP.
As for the Grand picture I have this nightmare scenario for the BRD of Union+FDP being smaller than SPD+Greens but that not having a majority. Possibly Not even with passive support from the Left if the Pirates do OK.
Technically I am suggesting that in the Bundestag the Centre right coalition could be put in on pirated votes. Not so much that our bucanner friends would do that, more that it would be very messy. Think UK 2010 attempts at a Rainbow coalition. SPD+Green+FDP depending on the Left.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 6, 2012 5:43:42 GMT
Forsa, yesterday (5/6), I caught it out of the corner of my eye in the lounge at Tegel, but didn't get the details.
Union 33%(+1), SPD 27%, Grüne 14% (+1), Piraten 11% (-1), SED 6%, FDP 4% (-1)
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 11, 2012 9:45:45 GMT
Emnid this weekend, which has the big sample size (2308).
Union 32%(-1) SPD 30% (+1) Grüne 13% (+1) PIR 10% (-1) SED 6% (-), FDP 5% (-), 4% for the rag, tag and bobtail
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 13, 2012 19:12:48 GMT
Forsa, yesterday (5/6), I caught it out of the corner of my eye in the lounge at Tegel, but didn't get the details. Union 33%(+1), SPD 27%, Grüne 14% (+1), Piraten 11% (-1), SED 6%, FDP 4% (-1) And this weeks Forsa Union 32% (-1), SPD 27%, Grüne 14%, Piraten 10% (-1), SED 7% (+1), FDP 5%(+1)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,474
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 16, 2012 12:42:10 GMT
Apparently a new nationwide poll puts the SPD on 32%, their best rating for a while (though still two points behind the "Union" parties)
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 16, 2012 15:47:31 GMT
Apparently a new nationwide poll puts the SPD on 32%, their best rating for a while (though still two points behind the "Union" parties) They have been on 32% a few times with the "Other Polls", rather than the Big Six - polls like YouGov for Bild Zeitung. The poll you mention is for Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (for ZDF), sample size is usually about 1250. Union 34(-2), SPD 32(+1), Grüne 13 (-1), Piraten 7, FDP 5(+1), SED 5 - Sonstige 4%
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Post by johnloony on Jun 23, 2012 4:51:48 GMT
I have just started reading "The Last Days of America" by Paul E. Erdman. I found it at a jumble sale for 50p. It was written in 1980 and describes events in 1985-87. Among other things, the Chancellor of West Germany is Franz Josef Strauss.
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Post by Tangent on Jun 23, 2012 6:03:46 GMT
I've read that a few times: my parents had a copy. Among other things, it has Apple filing for bankruptcy in 1987 under the strain of the Japanese tech onslaught.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 23, 2012 6:05:37 GMT
I have just started reading "The Last Days of America" by Paul E. Erdman. I found it at a jumble sale for 50p. It was written in 1980 and describes events in 1985-87. Among other things, the Chancellor of West Germany is Franz Josef Strauss. If Strauß is Kanzler, that's a scary book. Anyway, four polls this week, just like four goals last night and perhaps the hintette of a Fußball Faktor for the Kanzlerin. Allensbach : Union 34 (-1,5) SPD 28 (-2) Grüne 15,5 (+1,5) Piraten 7,5 (+,5) FDP 5,5 (+1) SED 5 (,5) Forsa: Union 33(+1) SPD 27, Grüne 13(-1), Piraten 10, SED 7, FDP 5 GMS: Union 34(+1) SPD 28(+1) Grüne 13 Piraten 10(-2), FDP 6, SED 5(-1) Infratest Dimap: Union 34 SPD 31(+1) Grüne 14(+1) Piraten 8(-1), SED 6(+1), FDP 4(-1)
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Post by Tangent on Jun 23, 2012 6:11:39 GMT
I have just started reading "The Last Days of America" by Paul E. Erdman. I found it at a jumble sale for 50p. It was written in 1980 and describes events in 1985-87. Among other things, the Chancellor of West Germany is Franz Josef Strauss. If Strauß is Kanzler, that's a scary book. You can say that again. In the book, West Germany under Strauss acquires an independent nuclear deterrent and cruise missiles by underhand means, and uses this to obtain reunification as a quid pro quo for withdrawing from NATO.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 24, 2012 1:10:47 GMT
Among other things, it has Apple filing for bankruptcy in 1987 under the strain of the Japanese tech onslaught. West Germany under Strauss acquires an independent nuclear deterrent and cruise missiles by underhand means, and uses this to obtain reunification as a quid pro quo for withdrawing from NATO. If I had known that you would be so moronic as to spoil it by blurting out details which I haven't got to yet, I wouldn't have mentioned it.
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Post by Tangent on Jun 24, 2012 14:09:23 GMT
Among other things, it has Apple filing for bankruptcy in 1987 under the strain of the Japanese tech onslaught. West Germany under Strauss acquires an independent nuclear deterrent and cruise missiles by underhand means, and uses this to obtain reunification as a quid pro quo for withdrawing from NATO. If I had known that you would be so moronic as to spoil it by blurting out details which I haven't got to yet, I wouldn't have mentioned it. That was stupid of me. I apologise.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 25, 2012 19:48:04 GMT
Finished! I have finished reading "The Last Days of America" by Paul E. Erdman. It was enjoyable, but it was a bit of an anti-climax - it had a sudden, neat resolution about 30 pages before the end, leaving an expectation of further twists which didn't materialise. Also, it's a misleading title. It doesn't mean the end of America; it just means the end of the USA as the most powerful country economically & militarily.
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 29, 2012 14:03:46 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,261
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 29, 2012 14:43:10 GMT
Forsa, inevitably.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 29, 2012 15:30:56 GMT
Indeed, but Mutti has been trending upwards over the last couple of months.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,261
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 29, 2012 17:05:28 GMT
Oh, sure, sure.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 29, 2012 17:09:57 GMT
But more in the 36-37 range than 39.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 4, 2012 22:11:52 GMT
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