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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Aug 6, 2021 6:05:27 GMT
Only on this forum does the subject of Blackpool North railway station appear in a thread about German elections. Yes, it's a very, very odd experience catching a train from there. I suspect they were trained in customer service by the Stasi. Five Stasi Service?
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Aug 6, 2021 17:34:28 GMT
"Failure to fill out the required paperwork" isn't usually an action associated with a party that has serious ambitions of leading the government in a few months' time...
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Aug 6, 2021 18:29:43 GMT
So a) who do their voters now vote for instead; b) how many voters do they actually have in Saarland; c) is it likely to affect enough seats to impact government formation?
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 6, 2021 18:53:26 GMT
So a) who do their voters now vote for instead; b) how many voters do they actually have in Saarland; c) is it likely to affect enough seats to impact government formation? Saarland has the second-smallest population of all the states, only Bremen being smaller. So without knowing the answer to (b), the answer to (c) is "pretty unlikely", unless the situation really is on a knife edge.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 6, 2021 18:54:10 GMT
So a) who do their voters now vote for instead; b) how many voters do they actually have in Saarland; c) is it likely to affect enough seats to impact government formation? In Saarland in 2017, the German Greens only polled 4.7% at constituency level and 6.0% at list level. However, this screw-up in Saarland will have repercussions for them federally next month.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 6, 2021 18:59:32 GMT
So a) who do their voters now vote for instead; b) how many voters do they actually have in Saarland; c) is it likely to affect enough seats to impact government formation? I think the answer is not that much. They got 6% of the vote in the Saarland last time. This actually didn't get them a Landeslist seat there, they got that seat through the balancing seats. They will of course have candidates for the Direktmandates in the Saar on the First Vote but these don't carry through to the second vote seats. As the divisor is usually somewhere around 80,000 votes and they only got 35,000 in the Saarland, even if that vote doubled, it would probably only cost them 1 seat.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 6, 2021 19:25:38 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 6, 2021 20:59:12 GMT
"Failure to fill out the required paperwork" isn't usually an action associated with a party that has serious ambitions of leading the government in a few months' time... it's also not what happened here. They literally annulled a nomination convention and held a 2nd one, excluding certain delegates. While in the AfD it was refusal to sign the necessary paperwork, by a party official unhappy with the convention outcome.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 6, 2021 22:38:27 GMT
So a) who do their voters now vote for instead; b) how many voters do they actually have in Saarland; c) is it likely to affect enough seats to impact government formation? If i remember correctly the SaarLand brought them 2017 0.14%, so ~1 seat. Their voters will go to SPD, TheLeft or AbStention (few to CDU or FDP, nearly none - except very few ProtestVoters - to AfD).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 6, 2021 22:45:11 GMT
Are the ÖDP standing in the Saar Territory? Not exactly the same thing but they could benefit from a Green absence.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Aug 7, 2021 0:00:27 GMT
So a) who do their voters now vote for instead; b) how many voters do they actually have in Saarland; c) is it likely to affect enough seats to impact government formation? For a, I would assume a split between Die Linke, the SPD and the CDU, since the German Greens have a conservative wing I believe. Die Linke has well publicised troubles in the Saar, so this might help push them over the threshold. For b, they only got 21,392 (4%) at the last state election, so did not pass the threshold. So ultimately, the effect of their vote, even if larger at federal elections, is going to be minimal. For c, no as explained above. There's no prospect of them really winning an electorate in Saarland.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Aug 7, 2021 0:02:52 GMT
"Failure to fill out the required paperwork" isn't usually an action associated with a party that has serious ambitions of leading the government in a few months' time... it's also not what happened here. They literally annulled a nomination convention and held a 2nd one, excluding certain delegates. While in the AfD it was refusal to sign the necessary paperwork, by a party official unhappy with the convention outcome. Would one of the excluded delegates be Oskar La Fontaine or is he longer a member?
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 7, 2021 5:21:09 GMT
So a) who do their voters now vote for instead; b) how many voters do they actually have in Saarland; c) is it likely to affect enough seats to impact government formation? For a, I would assume a split between Die Linke, the SPD and the CDU, since the German Greens have a conservative wing I believe. Die Linke has well publicised troubles in the Saar, so this might help push them over the threshold. For b, they only got 21,392 (4%) at the last state election, so did not pass the threshold. So ultimately, the effect of their vote, even if larger at federal elections, is going to be minimal. For c, no as explained above. There's no prospect of them really winning an electorate in Saarland. You don't appear to understand how the German system works. a) There is no Länder-level Sperrklausel, it's at national level, it doesn't matter if you don't get 5% in a Land, what matters is the distribution. b) That's the first vote figure for the Direkt (FPTP) seats. The second vote was something like 35,411 (6%) which would be past the state-level Sperrklausel if it existed, not that it would normally matter as during the second stage of the process it was determined that the greens did not get a Second Vote mandate in the Saarland. c) However, they did gain that mandate during stage 4, which is the allocation of the overhang seats. So basically, it's worth something between 0 and 1 seat depending on the results of other parties. Even if we doubled their vote in the Saar, they would be very marginal as they would still be below the quota for a second vote Landeslist seat and therefore would possibly have to rely on overhang seats or balancing seats. So even with a doubled vote in the Saar, this error would still be worth between 0 and 1 seat, but in this case it is mostly likely 1 seat.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 7, 2021 5:23:36 GMT
it's also not what happened here. They literally annulled a nomination convention and held a 2nd one, excluding certain delegates. While in the AfD it was refusal to sign the necessary paperwork, by a party official unhappy with the convention outcome. Would one of the excluded delegates be Oskar La Fontaine or is he longer a member? Oskar is a member of DIE LINKE, his wife Sahra Tankieknecht is their lead candidate in Nordrhein-Westfalen and therefore likely to continue to blight the Bundestag on her increasingly odd journey towards National Bolshevism.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 7, 2021 7:47:54 GMT
Their voters will go to SPD, TheLeft or AbStention (few to CDU or FDP, nearly none - except very few ProtestVoters - to AfD). Hasn’t quite a lot of their post 2017 surge come from the CDU? Obviously not as much as the SPD, but i think there’s a good chance more of their current vote goes to the CDU than Linke in Saarland (middle class social liberals and whatever you call LaFontaine’s politics don’t seem to have much in common).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 7, 2021 8:35:54 GMT
Would one of the excluded delegates be Oskar La Fontaine or is he longer a member? Oskar is a member of DIE LINKE, his wife Sahra Tankieknecht is their lead candidate in Nordrhein-Westfalen and therefore likely to continue to blight the Bundestag on her increasingly odd journey towards National Bolshevism. National Bolshevism is a rather apt description. But then to a degree she's followed the route of most of the old eastern bloc regimes, just forty to fifty years later! She's turning into Tulla Pokriefke from Günter Grass's novels. Regardless of one's views on her politics, they're aren't many politicians in Germany today capable of cooking up a storm in the media, or interested in actually committing their ideas to print. Fascinating character.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 7, 2021 11:59:03 GMT
Would one of the excluded delegates be Oskar La Fontaine or is he longer a member? Oskar is a member of DIE LINKE, his wife Sahra Tankieknecht is their lead candidate in Nordrhein-Westfalen and therefore likely to continue to blight the Bundestag on her increasingly odd journey towards National Bolshevism. By all accounts he is quite a bit further along that journey, spends most of his time repeating alt-right talking points online these days.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 7, 2021 14:17:26 GMT
Their voters will go to SPD, TheLeft or AbStention (few to CDU or FDP, nearly none - except very few ProtestVoters - to AfD). Hasn’t quite a lot of their post 2017 surge come from the CDU? Obviously not as much as the SPD, but i think there’s a good chance more of their current vote goes to the CDU than Linke in Saarland (middle class social liberals and whatever you call LaFontaine’s politics don’t seem to have much in common). Yes, the course of the OpinionPolls in the last 4 years demonstrates clearly a strong negative CorRelation CDU-TheGreens. Yet, it remains doubtful, that these voters will turn back to the Laschet-CDU. Many of them are lefties, who opted for Merkel because of her MassImmigration-policy in 2015. 2021 will likely see, that those 5%, who went 2017 to MidRight, will go back to MidLeft: 51%-56%-51%
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 7, 2021 18:26:11 GMT
Oskar is a member of DIE LINKE, his wife Sahra Tankieknecht is their lead candidate in Nordrhein-Westfalen and therefore likely to continue to blight the Bundestag on her increasingly odd journey towards National Bolshevism. By all accounts he is quite a bit further along that journey, spends most of his time repeating alt-right talking points online these days. Ironically, approaching anything that looks vaguely right-wing will be beyond the pale in the party. But defending actual State-sponsored murder and harassment will probably get you a slap on the wrist at the very, very most.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Aug 7, 2021 20:32:07 GMT
For a, I would assume a split between Die Linke, the SPD and the CDU, since the German Greens have a conservative wing I believe. Die Linke has well publicised troubles in the Saar, so this might help push them over the threshold. For b, they only got 21,392 (4%) at the last state election, so did not pass the threshold. So ultimately, the effect of their vote, even if larger at federal elections, is going to be minimal. For c, no as explained above. There's no prospect of them really winning an electorate in Saarland. You don't appear to understand how the German system works. a) There is no Länder-level Sperrklausel, it's at national level, it doesn't matter if you don't get 5% in a Land, what matters is the distribution. b) That's the first vote figure for the Direkt (FPTP) seats. The second vote was something like 35,411 (6%) which would be past the state-level Sperrklausel if it existed, not that it would normally matter as during the second stage of the process it was determined that the greens did not get a Second Vote mandate in the Saarland. c) However, they did gain that mandate during stage 4, which is the allocation of the overhang seats. So basically, it's worth something between 0 and 1 seat depending on the results of other parties. Even if we doubled their vote in the Saar, they would be very marginal as they would still be below the quota for a second vote Landeslist seat and therefore would possibly have to rely on overhang seats or balancing seats. So even with a doubled vote in the Saar, this error would still be worth between 0 and 1 seat, but in this case it is mostly likely 1 seat. 1 seat seems to be irrelevant anyway in the scheme of things. Surprised there is no state level threshold. You obviously have quite detailed knowledge of the German election system, thanks for correcting me.
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