Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Mar 26, 2021 22:00:04 GMT
One presumes the map of the BIG vote also has some correlation with where the electorate of Turkish origin resides as well.
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 26, 2021 22:05:13 GMT
One presumes the map of the BIG vote also has some correlation with where the electorate of Turkish origin resides as well. I thought Stephen Bush thought the Barnsley Independent Group had no chance this time?
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Mar 26, 2021 22:07:15 GMT
One presumes the map of the BIG vote also has some correlation with where the electorate of Turkish origin resides as well. I thought Stephen Bush thought the Barnsley Independent Group had no chance this time? Today Frankfurt, tomorrow Mexborough!
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 26, 2021 22:09:11 GMT
I thought Stephen Bush thought the Barnsley Independent Group had no chance this time? Today Frankfurt, tomorrow Mexborough! In Mexborough they would be DIG not BIG.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Mar 26, 2021 22:12:36 GMT
Today Frankfurt, tomorrow Mexborough! In Mexborough they would be DIG not BIG. Whoops. All of the People's Republic looks the same to me. (Plus I have a vague recollection of Mexborough being in a Barnsley seat at some point?)
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2021 5:32:59 GMT
In Mexborough they would be DIG not BIG. Whoops. All of the People's Republic looks the same to me. (Plus I have a vague recollection of Mexborough being in a Barnsley seat at some point?) called Barnsley E & Mexborough, yes.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2021 10:30:03 GMT
minionofmidas, when you refer to Russian origin and the AfD vote-is this an Auslandsdeutsche vote? There were rumours about it in the UK press a while back. I don't think the pathway to citizenship matters much. After over 10 years of Katorga, then 40 years of living primarily in the cities of Central Asia and Siberia, intermarrying with everybody else, not passing on their language and feeling vague shame about the "nationality: German" in their Soviet passports which then turned into a golden ticket to the West, the line between Russia Germans and ethnic Russians was nothing but a blur. What matters is being somewhat badly integrated* and consuming Russian media - which is true of far from all immigrants from Russia, German descent or not, but quite a lot of them, and would be correlated with living where a lot of other Russian immigrants live as well. (Ex foreign garrison towns in W Germany, which had a lot of newly available housing on the market in the 90s due to the troop removals, tend to be full of them. Pforzheim for example.) And it certainly led to a really heavy AfD vote in 2016ff. *one way that a subsection of the Volga Germans maintained group cohesion and kept apart in West Asia was through Evangelical churches... which work the same way here now. And also feeds into the whole covid denialism / antivaxxer / querdenker nexus.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2021 10:56:16 GMT
One presumes the map of the BIG vote also has some correlation with where the electorate of Turkish origin resides as well. a pretty weak one, as a Turkish party that actually reached the entire community would be rather more successful. You need to be a German citizen (which unlike the Russia Germans requires a degree of will and effort) sinxe Turkey is not in the EU but be sufficiently non-integrated to be interested in a party that is Muslim-only and overwhelmingly Turkish (sort of a headcount / give the community a voice thing, not intended as a path to power and responsibility) but be sufficiently political to be voting in local elections anyways. That's fairly specific, and outside of some dying Ruhr towns there aren't really any overwhelmingly Turkish neighborhoods in Germany - "devoid of wholly pure German, no migrant background, families (but not of such individuals)", yes. But that's not the same thing at all & in Frankfurt even such places are going to be very multiethnic. There was one precinct where BIG got 9% of the day vote* - the area in Griesheim standing out as 30% Other - but that's still only 15 people (and yeah, pretty grim corner of town). Most Turkish voters in Germany aren't interested in a party of their own. The BIG map is probably better correlated with left-behind-ness than with Turkish origin. *which my calculations make out to be app. 11% of overall vote. Generally though BIG evidently didn't have a potentially sketchy postal voting operation. Unlike Brilliante and also IBF, both of whom get their vote largely by mail.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Mar 27, 2021 16:56:10 GMT
One presumes the map of the BIG vote also has some correlation with where the electorate of Turkish origin resides as well. a pretty weak one, as a Turkish party that actually reached the entire community would be rather more successful. You need to be a German citizen (which unlike the Russia Germans requires a degree of will and effort) sinxe Turkey is not in the EU but be sufficiently non-integrated to be interested in a party that is Muslim-only and overwhelmingly Turkish (sort of a headcount / give the community a voice thing, not intended as a path to power and responsibility) but be sufficiently political to be voting in local elections anyways. That's fairly specific, and outside of some dying Ruhr towns there aren't really any overwhelmingly Turkish neighborhoods in Germany - "devoid of wholly pure German, no migrant background, families (but not of such individuals)", yes. But that's not the same thing at all & in Frankfurt even such places are going to be very multiethnic. There was one precinct where BIG got 9% of the day vote* - the area in Griesheim standing out as 30% Other - but that's still only 15 people (and yeah, pretty grim corner of town). Most Turkish voters in Germany aren't interested in a party of their own. The BIG map is probably better correlated with left-behind-ness than with Turkish origin. *which my calculations make out to be app. 11% of overall vote. Generally though BIG evidently didn't have a potentially sketchy postal voting operation. Unlike Brilliante and also IBF, both of whom get their vote largely by mail. I should add that I was only basing that assumption on the neighbourhoods of Berlin where I saw lots of BIG posters during the 2013 election campaign. A lot can change in 8 years, and the particular circumstances of Frankfurt will have been different anyway.
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2021 17:31:54 GMT
a pretty weak one, as a Turkish party that actually reached the entire community would be rather more successful. You need to be a German citizen (which unlike the Russia Germans requires a degree of will and effort) sinxe Turkey is not in the EU but be sufficiently non-integrated to be interested in a party that is Muslim-only and overwhelmingly Turkish (sort of a headcount / give the community a voice thing, not intended as a path to power and responsibility) but be sufficiently political to be voting in local elections anyways. That's fairly specific, and outside of some dying Ruhr towns there aren't really any overwhelmingly Turkish neighborhoods in Germany - "devoid of wholly pure German, no migrant background, families (but not of such individuals)", yes. But that's not the same thing at all & in Frankfurt even such places are going to be very multiethnic. There was one precinct where BIG got 9% of the day vote* - the area in Griesheim standing out as 30% Other - but that's still only 15 people (and yeah, pretty grim corner of town). Most Turkish voters in Germany aren't interested in a party of their own. The BIG map is probably better correlated with left-behind-ness than with Turkish origin. *which my calculations make out to be app. 11% of overall vote. Generally though BIG evidently didn't have a potentially sketchy postal voting operation. Unlike Brilliante and also IBF, both of whom get their vote largely by mail. I should add that I was only basing that assumption on the neighbourhoods of Berlin where I saw lots of BIG posters during the 2013 election campaign. A lot can change in 8 years, and the particular circumstances of Frankfurt will have been different anyway. Nah, you got the general gist quite right. The particular circumstances are different only in the sense that Berlin has thresholds and a vote for BIG is an obviously wasted vote there.
They always have nice posters, though.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 27, 2021 19:21:37 GMT
Are Continuity Zentrum still out there?
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2021 22:24:33 GMT
Are Continuity Zentrum still out there? in NRW and Lower Saxony. These are (if wikipedia is to be believed, which is iffy in the case of microparties) the only organized state parties and the only states where the party has a handful of elected councillors (ultra-catholic Cloppenburg District only in the case of Lower Saxony).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 27, 2021 22:29:49 GMT
There's been a (gradually expanding) theoretical majority to the Left of the FDP continuously since 2001 and the CDU has been part of city government for all of the period. Frankfurt's DeViations from WestGermany's average in federal elections:
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 27, 2021 22:35:40 GMT
The left camp (SPD, Greens, Left, DKP, Women, LaRouche aso.) as a whole:
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 27, 2021 22:38:53 GMT
There's been a (gradually expanding) theoretical majority to the Left of the FDP continuously since 2001 and the CDU has been part of city government for all of the period. Frankfurt's DeViations from WestGermany's average in federal elections: that 94 federal result still looks weird to me. (And yeah, I'm only too aware of the civilwartorn state of the Frankfurt SPD and redgreen coalition at the time - my father was employed by the Green group at the time! - but why did that influence a federal election so badly?) Really the point from which it all went downhill for the CDU.
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 27, 2021 22:48:38 GMT
that 94 federal result still looks weird to me. (And yeah, I'm only too aware of the civilwartorn state of the Frankfurt SPD and redgreen coalition at the time - my father was employed by the Green group at the time! - but why did that influence a federal election so badly?) Really the point from which it all went downhill for the CDU. Yes. I posted already some weeks ago the DeViations of the main cities, which demonstrate, that all the foreign chatter of the centrist Merkel-CDU doing better there than GOP/Tories/... is NonSense. (What is no surprise for anyone with some contact to german reality, of course.)
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 28, 2021 21:23:44 GMT
The Kanzlerin has just knifed Laschet on TV.
It's going to be Söder or bust.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 28, 2021 21:31:56 GMT
The Kanzlerin has just knifed Laschet on TV. It's going to be Söder or bust. Saarland and Berlin copped for a bit of Mutti's disapproval as well. Can Söder fulfil the CSU dream and appeal beyond the Weißwurst Equator? He's not a Bavarian caricature like Strauss or even Stoiber, which must help.
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 28, 2021 21:54:32 GMT
The Kanzlerin has just knifed Laschet on TV. It's going to be Söder or bust. Saarland and Berlin copped for a bit of Mutti's disapproval as well. Can Söder fulfil the CSU dream and appeal beyond the Weißwurst Equator? He's not a Bavarian caricature like Strauss or even Stoiber, which must help. Well, he's from Nürnberg, which likes to think of itself as at a slight distance from the rest of Bavaria and he's a Protestant.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 28, 2021 23:24:39 GMT
Saarland and Berlin copped for a bit of Mutti's disapproval as well. Can Söder fulfil the CSU dream and appeal beyond the Weißwurst Equator? He's not a Bavarian caricature like Strauss or even Stoiber, which must help. Well, he's from Nürnberg, which likes to think of itself as at a slight distance from the rest of Bavaria and he's a Protestant. Nuremberg is a special case: In the early MiddleAges it was part of the bavarian NorthMark (= present-day UpperPalatine) and their dialect is labelled as Bavarian. But the way they speak - fastly&fluently - is clearly more Franconian. Also their faces are said to be often typical for Franconia. Ex-PM Beckstein is a good example and Söder a perfect one: His face is very specific for Franconia (what obviously doesn't mean, that all Franconians look similarily; just, that this kind is rarely found outside). Stoiber was by appearance very unBavarian; but the elderly associated him with being an assistant of the archBavarian Strauß and being "the blond guillotine". In order to appear more modern he remodelled his image in the 1990ies into that of a tough manager, what worked well in thriving Bavaria, not so much in deprived NorthGermany.
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