Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on May 25, 2012 15:58:54 GMT
I don't know, it translated fairly well in this case.
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Post by iainbhx on May 27, 2012 11:34:19 GMT
Looks like the crap is starting to hit the fan for Mutti now
Enmid (24/5): Union: 32 SPD 30 Grüne 12 Piraten 11 FDP 6 SED 6
Forschgruppe (25/5): Union 36 SPD 31 Grüne 14 Piraten 7 SED 5 FDP 4
Infratest (25/5) Union: 33 SPD 29 Grüne 13 Piraten 11 SED 6 FDP 5
Bayern has announced it's next Landtagwahl will be 15. Sept 2013, which is of course is also the earliest possible date for the Bundestag election. 20th of January will see the next Niedersachsen Landtag election, which will be critical, expect to see a lot of Mutti and McAllister together in the next few months. Latest poll of that Land was on the 18th of this month and was :
SPD 36, CDU 32, Grüne 13, Piraten 8, FDP 4, SED 3
Is McAllister the most powerful Scottish Tory ;D
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2012 11:40:33 GMT
Hmmm, her "Union" is still ahead of the SPD. As long as that remains the case, I would have thought she has some breathing space........
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Post by iainbhx on May 27, 2012 11:44:41 GMT
Hmmm, her "Union" is still ahead of the SPD. As long as that remains the case, I would have thought she has some breathing space........ The thing is the SPD have a reasonable reliable party for coalition in the shape of the Greens, and between them they are tantalizingly close to having a majority. The Union parties usual coalition partner is on the squeakybum levels of getting back into the Bundestag and would leave them well short, they'd need the long fabled Jamaika-Koalition or the Piraten (hmm, what's Black, Orange, Yellow flagwise). At the moment, it looks like SPD/Grüne or the dreaded Großkoalition. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on May 27, 2012 11:50:54 GMT
I don't think those polls are too bad for the CDU. The next 12 months could see momentous events in the Eurozone and if Merkel is seen to have protected German interests in such difficult times then her re-election is a distinct possibility.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on May 27, 2012 11:53:50 GMT
I don't think those polls are too bad for the CDU. The next 12 months could see momentous events in the Eurozone and if Merkel is seen to have protected German interests in such difficult times then her re-election is a distinct possibility. Perhaps, but up until... well... now... it had looked a certainty. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on May 27, 2012 12:05:58 GMT
I don't think those polls are too bad for the CDU. The next 12 months could see momentous events in the Eurozone and if Merkel is seen to have protected German interests in such difficult times then her re-election is a distinct possibility. Perhaps, but up until... well... now... it had looked a certainty. I don't accept that at all. It has been obvious for some time that the catastrophic fall in FDP support over the past two years has seriously dented Merkel's chances of re-election. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 27, 2012 13:23:24 GMT
Taking an average of the last couple of weeks polls means that for the Direktmandaten, we'd be looking at about 163 seats for the Union, of which 50 would be quite marginal. The SPD would get 131, of which 50 would be marginal, the SED would be reduced to three in Berlin, of which two would be very marginal and the Greens would have two, one of which is fairly safe (Berlin Mitte-K'berg-F'hain-Pberg Ost) and the second of which would be extremely marginal (Stuttgart I). Those 100 direct marginals could be very interesting.
The FDP and the SED would just scrape over the Fünf-Prozent Hurde and the Piraten would clear it easily. Now if the SED failed it (which is less likely than the FDP, but still possible), then the number of constituency seats would become very important, if they have three, they are in the second vote share out, if they have two, then they just get their two direct seats.
So Union 163, SPD 131, SED 3, Grüne 2 from the direkt mandates.
Now the second vote is quite complex, we'll assume that the Piraten won't be stupid and there will be no Unterhangmandaten (as there nearly was in Berlin). However, the rules will be changed with regards to Überhangmandaten, but it isn't entirely clear how this will be done yet, but it will make the list vote more important.
Now the Union would get about 40 List seats, leaving them with 203, the SPD would get about 48 giving them 179, Grüne 80, Piraten 68, SED 37 and FDP 31.
Now Union+FDP is 234 and SPD-Grüne 259, so it comes down to a Großkoalition or a three party deal, which would have to include the Piraten to be successful.
If we take the FDP out, then we would probably be looking at
Union 215, SPD 190, Grüne 87, Piraten 74, SED 32
Union gets 215, SPD-Grüne is 277, although I notice that Rot-Rotes-Grüne is viable as is Schwarz-Grüne.
If we get rid of the SED, except for two direktmandaten
Union gets 226, SPD gets 201, Grüne gets 91 and Piraten 78
Which means Union with anyone is viable.
So in, a way, Merkel is still safe, as she will probably be Chancellor, but what sort of Government is formed could be very interesting.
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 2, 2012 15:37:30 GMT
Interesting time to live in Slesvig-Holsten. That is messy.. Combinations that fail are FDP+Piraten plus big party. So it needsMain party Greens and any other (although if that is SSW the majority is 1. Or a Grand coalition. The SSW will have its first ever minister in a coalition with the Greens and SPD. |
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Post by marksenior on Jun 2, 2012 20:52:19 GMT
I think the FDP will quite easily meet the 5% threshold in the next German GE . I recall that in 2005 certainly , the FDP received quite a number of list votes from CDU voters to ensure they met the 5% threshold . Note the difference in 2005 of the FDP Constituency and List votes 4.7% and 9.8% respectively .
Actually , can someone tell me whether the opinion polls are giving figures for Constituency or List vote shares .
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Post by A Brown on Jun 2, 2012 20:58:14 GMT
I'm not sure about 'easily' but perhaps 5.5% or so is now the likely scenario.
This week's Forsa:
CDU/CSU 32
SPD 27
Grüne 13
Piraten 12
Linke 6
FDP 5
Others 5
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Post by marksenior on Jun 2, 2012 21:02:48 GMT
I'm not sure about 'easily' but perhaps 5.5% or so is now the likely scenario. This week's Forsa: CDU/CSU 32 SPD 27 Grüne 13 Piraten 12 Linke 6 FDP 5 Others 5 If 5.5% is a measure of the FDP constituency vote ( as I believe ) then they will get 9 to 10% on the list vote as per the 2005 results . Hence my use of the word easily . |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 2, 2012 21:18:10 GMT
I think the FDP will quite easily meet the 5% threshold in the next German GE . I recall that in 2005 certainly , the FDP received quite a number of list votes from CDU voters to ensure they met the 5% threshold . Note the difference in 2005 of the FDP Constituency and List votes 4.7% and 9.8% respectively . Why do you assume those are CDU supporters? Given that the FDP hasn't won any federal direct mandates this millenium (ever?), it is more likely that they're FDP supportters who were tactically voting CDU in the constituency vote. It's not improbable that tactical CDU support could keep the FDP in the Bundestag, but that would be a new development, not a continuation of current practice. Also, I'm pretty sure that those figures are for the list vote. If that's not the case, then the 2009 polling would in any case suggest that opinion polling exaggerates the FDP's support. |
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Post by marksenior on Jun 2, 2012 22:09:05 GMT
I think the FDP will quite easily meet the 5% threshold in the next German GE . I recall that in 2005 certainly , the FDP received quite a number of list votes from CDU voters to ensure they met the 5% threshold . Note the difference in 2005 of the FDP Constituency and List votes 4.7% and 9.8% respectively . Why do you assume those are CDU supporters? Given that the FDP hasn't won any federal direct mandates this millenium (ever?), it is more likely that they're FDP supportters who were tactically voting CDU in the constituency vote. It's not improbable that tactical CDU support could keep the FDP in the Bundestag, but that would be a new development, not a continuation of current practice. Also, I'm pretty sure that those figures are for the list vote. If that's not the case, then the 2009 polling would in any case suggest that opinion polling exaggerates the FDP's support. I sm sure that I recall an analysis of the voting in 2005 which showed that a significant number of CDU voters voted FDP on the list to ensure they reached the 5% minimum . I have no idea whether the polls are of Constituency or List VI which is why I asked the question . |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 3, 2012 0:55:31 GMT
All polls are for the list vote, because the constituency vote is like half a scam. Given that the FDP hasn't won any federal direct mandates this millenium (ever?) They last won one in the 1950s (the late 1950s, I think). Used to have a huge vote in parts of northern Hesse (the parts that voted overwhelmingly Nazi; rural-industrial and Protestant) but then the SPD broke through there in a big way/their voters died, and that was that. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 3, 2012 1:02:28 GMT
Given that the FDP hasn't won any federal direct mandates this millenium (ever?), IIRC Hans-Dietrich Genscher won a direct mandate in 1990. I believe that's the FDP's only one. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 3, 2012 1:04:33 GMT
Somehow managed to forget that, yeah. Halle; a sort of massive semi-sentimental personal vote or something. Other than that, nothing since the 1950s.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 3, 2012 6:08:11 GMT
Why do you assume those are CDU supporters? Given that the FDP hasn't won any federal direct mandates this millenium (ever?), it is more likely that they're FDP supportters who were tactically voting CDU in the constituency vote. It's not improbable that tactical CDU support could keep the FDP in the Bundestag, but that would be a new development, not a continuation of current practice. Also, I'm pretty sure that those figures are for the list vote. If that's not the case, then the 2009 polling would in any case suggest that opinion polling exaggerates the FDP's support. I sm sure that I recall an analysis of the voting in 2005 which showed that a significant number of CDU voters voted FDP on the list to ensure they reached the 5% minimum . I have no idea whether the polls are of Constituency or List VI which is why I asked the question . The polls are nearly always for the Zweite Stimmung, the list vote. That's why it looks a bit touch and go for the FDP. I'll check the Sunday's later after I've had some Frühstück. The problem is that CDU+FDP doesn't look currently like it can get a majority. SDP+GRÜ look like they might be able to. Yeah, I'm in Berlin again ;D |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 3, 2012 11:05:15 GMT
Given that the FDP hasn't won any federal direct mandates this millenium (ever?), IIRC Hans-Dietrich Genscher won a direct mandate in 1990. I believe that's the FDP's only one. It wasn't Genscher, but Uwe Lühr in Halle-Altstadt, he got 34% of the vote. Today's poll is an Enmid - Union 32%, SPD 29%, Grüne 12%, Piraten 11%, SED 6%, FDP 5% |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 3, 2012 11:25:30 GMT
Anyone care to comment on the chances of the Pirates actually getting 10%+
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