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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 1, 2024 17:07:34 GMT
ARD report rumours that Die Linke might survive in Saxony courtesy of a direct seat. The coverage is very good and is what we would like in the UK. Party spokesmen appear every so often, but focus is on turnout, prognosis, and going over to the parties for their speeches etc. Is it possible to watch in the UK? I tried the one on the Die Welt website but it was blocked. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2024 17:10:19 GMT
ARD report rumours that Die Linke might survive in Saxony courtesy of a direct seat. The coverage is very good and is what we would like in the UK. Party spokesmen appear every so often, but focus is on turnout, prognosis, and going over to the parties for their speeches etc. Is it possible to watch in the UK? I tried the one on the Die Welt website but it was blocked. It's probably blocked, but Deutsche Welle might have a feed. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2024 17:45:52 GMT
Ricarda Lang of the Greens is being given a hard time in an interview at the moment. But this isn't the most notable bit.
Right behind her is a woman dressed in a ballerina costume dyed green and wearing a floral headband.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2024 18:52:16 GMT
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 1, 2024 20:05:07 GMT
Incumbent Minister-President of Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow, looks to have only finished third in his constituency in Erfurt. [EDIT: Sorry, I was looking at the Zweitstimmen. Ramelow easily held but ran way, way ahead of his party branding there. Talk about a personal vote/head of government boost!] The AfD are currently leading or elected in 35 constituencies there, but both main German pollsters are still projecting just 32 seats for them, so there could be a few overhangs and therefore extra compensatory list seats to add for the other parties.
Over in Saxony, looks like Die Linke have held Leipzig-IV (i.e. Leipzig South), which means they'll get at least some representation and so government formation will be complicated even further. The Bautzen area infamously had a wafer-thin CDU hold over the AfD at the federal election 3 years ago with under 19% of the vote. This time they've had similar narrow-ish holds in the subregion, except that the same top two parties have more than a 35% share each. I'd call that a big swing to the right overall.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 1, 2024 20:07:38 GMT
This projection is very close. I don't know whether it's out of date now.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 1, 2024 20:11:00 GMT
This projection is very close. I don't know whether it's out of date now. Not sure where they're getting their numbers from but ZDF has the CDU 1.2% ahead of the AfD on the list vote, while ARD projects the gap to be 1.0% |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 1, 2024 20:22:17 GMT
Seats current projections
Thuringen (both ARD and ZDF agree on the numbers)
AFD 32
CDU 23
BSW 15
Linke 12
SPD 6
Sachsen
CDU 42 for ZDF, 41 for ARD
AFD 40
BSW 15 for ZDF, 16 for ARD
SPD 10
Greens 7
Linke 6
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 1, 2024 20:26:25 GMT
Leipzig-V (AKA Leipzig West) has just come in: Green hold on the first vote (so they no longer have to worry about the 5% hurdle either) but Linke, CDU, Green the top 3 on the list vote, in that order - and SPD ahead of both AfD and BSW too. Clearly some corners of that city exist in their own little bubble and out of step with the rest of the state.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 1, 2024 20:26:48 GMT
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 1, 2024 20:51:12 GMT
There's a bit of a clue in the URL that you've got the right site there, but the wrong election. Here's what you were looking for. Back in Thuringia, looks like a bit of CDU comeback so the AfD are now on course to win just 31 direct mandates and would actually need 1 list seat (meaning no overhangs) to get up to their projected total of 32. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Sept 1, 2024 20:51:14 GMT
Seats current projections Thuringen (both ARD and ZDF agree on the numbers) AFD 32 CDU 23 BSW 15 Linke 12 SPD 6 Sachsen CDU 42 for ZDF, 41 for ARD AFD 40 BSW 15 for ZDF, 16 for ARD SPD 10 Greens 7 Linke 6 Government formation will be somewhat interesting. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2024 21:01:24 GMT
AfD are 4k ahead in Saxony with no votes in from Dresden at all yet. My guess would be that Dresden will be expected to comfortably favour CDU over AfD?
EDIT: A few Dresden results in and it seems that is indeed what happened, and the Greens have won a constituency seat
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 1, 2024 22:02:05 GMT
As was pointed out, the Greens won another direct seat in the middle of Dresden. Die Linke also held a second one in the heart of Leipzig. Away from city centres, the Free Voters have won a constituency in Leipzig-Land III which will mean a seventh party gets in, making coalition-building even tougher.
All the provisional results are in for Thuringia. Just the five parties in the Landtag there and no obvious governing arrangement. CDU-BSW-SPD (which would already be a trio of strange bedfellows) are likely to hold exactly half the seats but appear to have fallen short of a majority.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 1, 2024 23:50:01 GMT
The final seat count for Thuringia is as posted by andrea above (just 29 of the AfD seats were direct mandates in the end). In Saxony it seems to be: CDU 42 AfD 41 BSW 15 SPD 9 Green 6 Linke 6 FW 1 |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 2, 2024 0:40:44 GMT
ARD report rumours that Die Linke might survive in Saxony courtesy of a direct seat. The coverage is very good and is what we would like in the UK. Party spokesmen appear every so often, but focus is on turnout, prognosis, and going over to the parties for their speeches etc. Is it possible to watch in the UK? I tried the one on the Die Welt website but it was blocked. Not sure, You are still interested to watch them - but You can find them at YouTube. ARD at "Tagesschau", ZDF at "ZDFheute Nachrichten". |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 2, 2024 0:59:46 GMT
Is it possible to watch in the UK? I tried the one on the Die Welt website but it was blocked. Not sure, You are still interested to watch them - but You can find them at YouTube. ARD at "Tagesschau", ZDF at "ZDFheute Nachrichten". Thanks. Interesting to see that the first one of these has English subtitles — not the auto-generated type, but where someone is actually translating them properly. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 2, 2024 8:30:13 GMT
The final seat count for Thuringia is as posted by andrea above (just 29 of the AfD seats were direct mandates in the end). In Saxony it seems to be: CDU 42 AfD 41 BSW 15 SPD 9 Green 6 Linke 6 FW 1 I had the FW down as a wildcard to get in, but definitely not due to a direct mandate! |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2024 8:41:26 GMT
The final seat count for Thuringia is as posted by andrea above (just 29 of the AfD seats were direct mandates in the end). In Saxony it seems to be: CDU 42 AfD 41 BSW 15 SPD 9 Green 6 Linke 6 FW 1 I had the FW down as a wildcard to get in, but definitely not due to a direct mandate! |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2024 8:42:33 GMT
In Thuriniga, SPD nearly held their sole direct mandate (Gotha II): 34.6% compared to 34.7% to the AfD.
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