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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 31, 2024 13:43:18 GMT
Tomorrow promises to be very entertaining. It's certainly going to be a fiesta of awful analysis by the media. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Aug 31, 2024 18:42:02 GMT
Tomorrow promises to be very entertaining. It's certainly going to be a fiesta of awful analysis by the media. Well yes, but my joy will be focussed on some terrible people getting their well earned comeuppance. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 31, 2024 20:29:53 GMT
Here's a fact that might explain tomorrow.
40 per cent of all senior civil servants in the Eastern Länder are from the West.
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Post by mrpastelito on Aug 31, 2024 21:05:01 GMT
Here's a fact that might explain tomorrow. 40 per cent of all senior civil servants in the Eastern Länder are from the West. That's what you call colonial administration. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 1, 2024 11:13:01 GMT
FWIW, early turnout figures do not look helpful to the AFD
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 1, 2024 12:13:04 GMT
FWIW, early turnout figures do not look helpful to the AFD Indeed not unlikely, that an antiAfD-hysteria takes place, but on which numbers/sources do You base this? I can only see, that the turnOut was 12:00 roughly the same as 2019, what means, it will increase with the plus of postalVotes. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2024 13:12:30 GMT
FWIW, early turnout figures do not look helpful to the AFD Lower in Saxony but apparently holding up in Thuringia. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 1, 2024 13:59:37 GMT
FWIW, early turnout figures do not look helpful to the AFD Indeed not unlikely, that an antiAfD-hysteria takes place, but on which numbers/sources do You base this? I can only see, that the turnOut was 12:00 roughly the same as 2019, what means, it will increase with the plus of postalVotes. Turnout is very good in Leipzig (relatively very weak area for the AFD) but more modest elsewhere. Hard to say without a full proper analysis which we’ll get in a few hours anyways. Of course, high turnout is usually good for the AFD so even a turnout increase with a seemingly bad geographic pattern could hide that it’s still good for the AFD. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2024 14:18:16 GMT
Thuringia now up compared to last time.
The authorities in Weimar managed to tell voters the wrong address for one of the polling stations.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 1, 2024 16:04:24 GMT
"Sezione Politica @sezionepolitica 🗳️🇩🇪 Elezioni Statali #Sassonia Exit Poll - ZDF ⚫️ CDU: 32% 🔵 AfD: 31,5% 🟣 BSW: 11,5% 🌹SPD: 7,5% 🟢 Verdi: 5% 🔴Die Linke: 4,5% Soglia di sbarramento: 5% #ltw2024 #ltwSachsen2024" x.com/SezionePolitica/status/1830274659901939804"World Elects @electsworld 🇩🇪#Germany, Thuringia state election exit poll: AfD: 33,5 % CDU: 24,5 % BSW: 14,5 % Die Linke: 11,5 % SPD: 6,5 % Grüne: 4 % FDP: 1 % Others: 4,5 % ZDF, #thueringenwahl2024" x.com/ElectsWorld/status/1830275207204078029 |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2024 16:06:24 GMT
Saxony initial prognosis:
CDU 31.5 per cent
AfD 30
BSW 12
SPD 8.5
Green 5.5
Linke 4
Others 8.5
Squeaky bum time for the Greens but SPD have pulled out of the fire. FDP and Linke buried.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2024 16:16:21 GMT
If those Saxon numbers are at all accurate in the end, then we can see that:
-CDU are gently down, AfD gently up and SPD up (did this week's events help then?)
- BSW have absolutely destroyed Die Linke and nearly ruined the Greens.
Did the presence of the Freie Wähler and Free Saxony cost AfD the lead position? Let's find out!
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 1, 2024 16:38:41 GMT
Frankly that’s quite a weak performance for both the BSW and Die Linke is Thuringia. BSW were polling near 20% and Die Linke near 15%. Quite good performance by the AFD, only dampened by probably coming symbolically 2nd in Saxony.
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Post by mrpastelito on Sept 1, 2024 16:41:55 GMT
Saxony initial prognosis: CDU 31.5 per cent AfD 30 BSW 12 SPD 8.5 Green 5.5 Linke 4 Others 8.5 Squeaky bum time for the Greens but SPD have pulled out of the fire. FDP and Linke buried. Would be disappointing if the Greens got in again. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 1, 2024 16:42:34 GMT
Squeaky bum time for the Greens but SPD have pulled out of the fire. FDP and Linke buried. I did think about asking what happens when a party is clearly going to get no seats and has no message you can send by voting for it. Well, 1% is the result. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2024 16:43:45 GMT
Frankly that’s quite a weak performance for both the BSW and Die Linke is Thuringia. BSW were polling near 20% and Die Linke near 15%. Quite good performance by the AFD, only dampened by probably coming symbolically 2nd in Saxony. Perhaps a touch unfair on BSW? It didn't exist in January. Even the AfD took a few years to break into a Landtag (albeit in incredible fashion). But on Die Linke, definitely. Running the Land and losing more than half their vote. |
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Post by stodge on Sept 1, 2024 17:00:42 GMT
Saxony initial prognosis: CDU 31.5 per cent AfD 30 BSW 12 SPD 8.5 Green 5.5 Linke 4 Others 8.5 Squeaky bum time for the Greens but SPD have pulled out of the fire. FDP and Linke buried. Would be disappointing if the Greens got in again. Kretschmer wouldn't be disappointed at all. The seat projection gives his current coalition 63 seats in the 120 seat Landtag (a loss of just four). He can carry on - the Opposition benches will have AfD and BSW who between them will have 57 seats. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 1, 2024 17:03:20 GMT
Frankly that’s quite a weak performance for both the BSW and Die Linke is Thuringia. BSW were polling near 20% and Die Linke near 15%. Quite good performance by the AFD, only dampened by probably coming symbolically 2nd in Saxony. Perhaps a touch unfair on BSW? It didn't exist in January. Even the AfD took a few years to break into a Landtag (albeit in incredible fashion). But on Die Linke, definitely. Running the Land and losing more than half their vote. It is a good result, they just could have hoped for more given the polling. Absolutely, Die Linke got half their 2021 federal vote in Saxony and only matched it in Thuringia with a popular Minister-President. The party is clearly heading down the drain with any hope of recovery fast diminishing. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Sept 1, 2024 17:04:12 GMT
Perhaps a touch unfair on BSW? It didn't exist in January. Even the AfD took a few years to break into a Landtag (albeit in incredible fashion). But on Die Linke, definitely. Running the Land and losing more than half their vote. It is a good result, they just could have hoped for more given the polling. Absolutely, Die Linke got half their 2021 federal vote in Saxony and only matched it in Thuringia with a popular Minister-President. The party is clearly heading down the drain with any hope of recovery fast diminishing. So sad. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2024 17:05:29 GMT
ARD report rumours that Die Linke might survive in Saxony courtesy of a direct seat.
The coverage is very good and is what we would like in the UK. Party spokesmen appear every so often, but focus is on turnout, prognosis, and going over to the parties for their speeches etc.
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