The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 27, 2024 12:03:33 GMT
And isn't AfD support, on the whole, actually a bit lower than a few years ago.
This bout of media handwringing is largely because two states in the East - amongst their best in an area where they remain strongest - happen to be voting soon.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Aug 27, 2024 15:17:44 GMT
And isn't AfD support, on the whole, actually a bit lower than a few years ago. This bout of media handwringing is largely because two states in the East - amongst their best in an area where they remain strongest - happen to be voting soon. I remember this happening in 2021 when the AFD vote went down in eastern Germany but the media narrative was “look how strong the AFD is in eastern Germany, it’s now become their heartland”. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 27, 2024 16:21:22 GMT
And isn't AfD support, on the whole, actually a bit lower than a few years ago. This bout of media handwringing is largely because two states in the East - amongst their best in an area where they remain strongest - happen to be voting soon. Indeed a recent poll (I'll write about this soon) shows that the AfD are slightly down of late. But the big thing to note is that they aren't an Ossi party anymore. The entire electorate of the East is roughly the same as Bavaria. At the Bavarian state election last year, 2m voted AfD - that is only 900,000 lower than the population of Thuringia. Bavaria is the state with the highest-ever number of AfD voters in a Landtag election, Saxony second, and third appears to be Hessen. Bavaria and Hessen are the two of the richest, best-educated and least-fashy Länder...and here they are, seeing their voters move directly from SPD, Green and FDP to AfD. Something the body politic and media need to consider, rather than obsessing about the East. Only one eastern Land even has a bigger population than Berlin! |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 28, 2024 13:41:49 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Aug 28, 2024 17:14:05 GMT
To be fair, they've never really had much support in Saxony. The highest support they've ever had in the landtag was in 2009 when they got a grand total of 10%, and even then they were swiftly relegated to last place by Nazis at the next election.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 28, 2024 19:00:06 GMT
To be fair, they've never really had much support in Saxony. The highest support they've ever had in the landtag was in 2009 when they got a grand total of 10%, and even then they were swiftly relegated to last place by Nazis at the next election. In the beginning was an overperformance in BundesTag-elections, though:  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 29, 2024 18:21:37 GMT
Scholz made a curious assertion at a public appearance that he was the man to fix migration...but also that he was like Sisyphus. Unfortunately some thought that he was implying that he was well-meaning but utterly ineffective.
Anyway, final polling suggests that the AfD will narrowly win Saxony with the CDU just behind. The BSW won't be far behind. Thuringia looks like a Saftladen (a shitshow)- AfD miles ahead, and BSW close enough to overtake the CDU potentially. Fun times ahead. The Greens are now dancing on the volcano, the FDP have been run over by the soft-top of destiny, and the SPD might well pull easily clear.
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Post by robert1 on Aug 30, 2024 5:55:14 GMT
Scholz made a curious assertion at a public appearance that he was the man to fix migration...but also that he was like Sisyphus. Unfortunately some thought that he was implying that he was well-meaning but utterly ineffective. Anyway, final polling suggests that the AfD will narrowly win Saxony with the CDU just behind. The BSW won't be far behind. Thuringia looks like a Saftladen (a shitshow)- AfD miles ahead, and BSW close enough to overtake the CDU potentially. Fun times ahead. The Greens are now dancing on the volcano, the FDP have been run over by the soft-top of destiny, and the SPD might well pull easily clear. Do you have details of the final polls please? Now have them. Problem solved |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 30, 2024 10:21:37 GMT
Scholz made a curious assertion at a public appearance that he was the man to fix migration...but also that he was like Sisyphus. Unfortunately some thought that he was implying that he was well-meaning but utterly ineffective. Anyway, final polling suggests that the AfD will narrowly win Saxony with the CDU just behind. The BSW won't be far behind. Thuringia looks like a Saftladen (a shitshow)- AfD miles ahead, and BSW close enough to overtake the CDU potentially. Fun times ahead. The Greens are now dancing on the volcano, the FDP have been run over by the soft-top of destiny, and the SPD might well pull easily clear. Do you have details of the final polls please? Now have them. Problem solved Best source for all German polls: www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 30, 2024 11:03:09 GMT
As noted in the immigration thread, Scholz has gone from making what appeared to be more empty promises yesterday to deporting 28 Afghans this morning. Too late to influence the elections? Possibly, but it is not impossible that it takes the wind out of the sails of both the AfD and BSW.
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Post by aargauer on Aug 30, 2024 11:07:52 GMT
As noted in the immigration thread, Scholz has gone from making what appeared to be more empty promises yesterday to deporting 28 Afghans this morning. Too late to influence the elections? Possibly, but it is not impossible that it takes the wind out of the sails of both the AfD and BSW. He's not going to out AfD the AfD. More likely to alienate his actual supporters. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 30, 2024 11:13:07 GMT
I think that most SPD voters - certainly the sort sticking with them at the moment - are more likely to approve than not.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 30, 2024 11:27:24 GMT
I think that most SPD voters - certainly the sort sticking with them at the moment - are more likely to approve than not. I would definitely agree with this. SPD voters can be a small-c conservative bunch (it's Germany after all). Given the bleed of voters from SPD to AfD in Hessen and Bavaria, and rise of Wagenknecht, there's definitely likely to be support. Merz was already benefitting, but his clear engagement with Scholz this week possibly means that both Volksparteien will get a boost. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 30, 2024 12:40:01 GMT
I think that most SPD voters - certainly the sort sticking with them at the moment - are more likely to approve than not. I would definitely agree with this. SPD voters can be a small-c conservative bunch (it's Germany after all). Given the bleed of voters from SPD to AfD in Hessen and Bavaria, and rise of Wagenknecht, there's definitely likely to be support. Merz was already benefitting, but his clear engagement with Scholz this week possibly means that both Volksparteien will get a boost. 2018, when the total populace was ~1:1, the SPD-voters were - according to INSA - with 2/3 for open borders & right to remain:  Although by softer support:  |
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Post by aargauer on Aug 30, 2024 14:19:08 GMT
I think that most SPD voters - certainly the sort sticking with them at the moment - are more likely to approve than not. I would definitely agree with this. SPD voters can be a small-c conservative bunch (it's Germany after all). Given the bleed of voters from SPD to AfD in Hessen and Bavaria, and rise of Wagenknecht, there's definitely likely to be support. Merz was already benefitting, but his clear engagement with Scholz this week possibly means that both Volksparteien will get a boost. Germany: The conservatives are conservatives, the socialists are conservatives, the far left are conservative, the greens are conservative, and the hard right are actual nazis, but the country is basically Nordic social democrat |
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Post by mrpastelito on Aug 30, 2024 15:41:43 GMT
I would definitely agree with this. SPD voters can be a small-c conservative bunch (it's Germany after all). Given the bleed of voters from SPD to AfD in Hessen and Bavaria, and rise of Wagenknecht, there's definitely likely to be support. Merz was already benefitting, but his clear engagement with Scholz this week possibly means that both Volksparteien will get a boost. Germany: The conservatives are conservatives, the socialists are conservatives, the far left are conservative, the greens are conservative, and the hard right are actual nazis, but the country is basically Nordic social democrat Small c conservative in the sense the SED was conservative. |
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Post by aargauer on Aug 30, 2024 16:07:21 GMT
I would definitely agree with this. SPD voters can be a small-c conservative bunch (it's Germany after all). Given the bleed of voters from SPD to AfD in Hessen and Bavaria, and rise of Wagenknecht, there's definitely likely to be support. Merz was already benefitting, but his clear engagement with Scholz this week possibly means that both Volksparteien will get a boost. Germany: The conservatives are conservatives, the socialists are conservatives, the far left are conservative, the greens are conservative, and the hard right are actual nazis, but the country is basically Nordic social democrat I don't think Brits realise how good the UK pension system (before its killed in Labour's budget) is as tax avoidance mechanism, until you get to half-decent salaries, and how much more tax you have to pay in Europe. Below 80k or so its extremely generous and doesn't get nasty until north of 160k. The idea that the group who need to pay more tax is those over 125k is absolutely absurd. We are simultaneously hitting the laffer curve on that population whilst having sub-US tax on middle incomes. I don't know if anyone is in the HENRY community - but there the talk is about going down to 4 or even 3 days if you have kids at nursery, because you are literally paying more than 100% tax for a whole 25k tax bracket. It's absurd *already* |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 30, 2024 22:13:47 GMT
German tax is working quite nicely for me. No frozen bands, no weird cliff edges, no tapering off of allowances. The killer is of course paying for your own health insurance, which is where all comparisons with the UK fall apart.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 31, 2024 9:10:49 GMT
Germany: The conservatives are conservatives, the socialists are conservatives, the far left are conservative, the greens are conservative, and the hard right are actual nazis, but the country is basically Nordic social democrat I don't think Brits realise how good the UK pension system (before its killed in Labour's budget) is as tax avoidance mechanism, until you get to half-decent salaries, and how much more tax you have to pay in Europe. Below 80k or so its extremely generous and doesn't get nasty until north of 160k. The idea that the group who need to pay more tax is those over 125k is absolutely absurd. We are simultaneously hitting the laffer curve on that population whilst having sub-US tax on middle incomes. I don't know if anyone is in the HENRY community - but there the talk is about going down to 4 or even 3 days if you have kids at nursery, because you are literally paying more than 100% tax for a whole 25k tax bracket. It's absurd *already* The 35k-50k bracket really will have to cough up more. Even if it is one per cent more. Especially if people want the triple lock to continue but also not have the pension age go up further. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Aug 31, 2024 11:11:11 GMT
Tomorrow promises to be very entertaining.
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