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Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2021 18:09:03 GMT
Could just be a pointed power play towards SPD but interesting non the less "going through the motions" is the phrase I'd have used. This was primarily about helping Lindner keep his face. Three way negotiations (still 'soundings', with Jamaica not *officially* off the table) between SPD FDP & Greens start tomorrow. You mean it's a pile of shit?
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 6, 2021 19:09:57 GMT
"going through the motions" is the phrase I'd have used. This was primarily about helping Lindner keep his face. Three way negotiations (still 'soundings', with Jamaica not *officially* off the table) between SPD FDP & Greens start tomorrow. You mean it's a pile of shit? i mean that talking w/ (offering talks to) the CDU as well was a course agreed between Greens and FDP on the assumption that a traffic light was the plausible outcome. Wrt the FDP Lindner spent all campaign refusing to rule out a traffic light while saying it was totally unlikely and Laschet wd be the next chancellor. He needs to climb down gradually to keep the rightwingers happy. Wrt the Greens it pays to be nice to Lindner. He's stormed out of negotiations once before. Wrt the CDU leadership they are looking at their irate backbenches and playing for time - desperately clinging onto the back of the bull, rather. Attempting to / pretending to attempt to form a government buys time. This is also why far more details of the Union-Green and Union-FDP talks than any other leaked out. No one in the Union has to fear consequences for leaking. The effect on the SPD barely enters into anybody's calculations. (Okay yes, the FDP won't be cheap but this wd be true Jamaica option or not.) (And that kind of headline out of that kind of unenthusiastic post-talks Green statement was pretty low for the Guardian.)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 6, 2021 21:16:52 GMT
Laschet's inept response to the result must give Lindner more cover on his right that he was expecting.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 7, 2021 21:29:45 GMT
Laschet has...no, not resigned. What was that exactly? Offered to stand down at the next convention?
Poor sod is going from pm of Germany's largest state to Bundestag backbencher.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 8, 2021 6:05:02 GMT
BundesTag-elections, SecondVote-results on the level of - Regions ("BundesLänder") - Administrative Districts ("LandKreise" & "Kreisfreie Städte") - Electoral Districts ("WahlKreise") with PartyVotes measured on - all eligible votes - only valid votes nota bene on the right of the tables are also the DeViations from NationalAverage drive.google.com/drive/folders/1AzXBWCYbwr0UsL7yBz-hTWIHlSoGqMxf?usp=sharing
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 8, 2021 7:22:48 GMT
Decisive for the 2 camps (left & right) this time were the 1.4% for TheBasis, a party of antiVacc./HomeoPathy/ConspiracyTheorists:
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 8, 2021 11:34:01 GMT
Laschet has...no, not resigned. What was that exactly? Offered to stand down at the next convention? Poor sod is going from pm of Germany's largest state to Bundestag backbencher. It looked like he was going for "suicide by cop". All very odd. One of his outriders has claimed it is all Söder's fault. Hmmmm.
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Post by redtony on Oct 8, 2021 21:07:24 GMT
Is there any reason why the SDP and the Greens alone cant form a minority Government the CDU would only have the FDP to form a Government far behind the SDP Green GovernmentADF and the left voting against such a Government as well as FDP and CDU most unlikely
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 8, 2021 22:07:31 GMT
Is there any reason why the SDP and the Greens alone cant form a minority Government the CDU would only have the FDP to form a Government far behind the SDP Green GovernmentADF and the left voting against such a Government as well as FDP and CDU most unlikely Due to the trauma of the Weimar era, minority government are frowned upon.
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myth11
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too busy at work!
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Post by myth11 on Oct 8, 2021 22:08:51 GMT
Is there any reason why the SDP and the Greens alone cant form a minority Government the CDU would only have the FDP to form a Government far behind the SDP Green GovernmentADF and the left voting against such a Government as well as FDP and CDU most unlikely chancellor majority is one reason as a chancellor candidate must have a majority of all elected members within 15 days of the 1st vote on the post of chancellor or after that the President of Germany within 60 days can appoint as chancellor the candidate who received a plurality of votes which is seen as a bit weak or call new elections. There is also the constructive vote of no confidence where a chancellor can be replaced and since a combo of union/FDP/AFD would have a majority of elected members it is possible plus has happened at the state level.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 7:11:07 GMT
Is there any reason why the SDP and the Greens alone cant form a minority Government the CDU would only have the FDP to form a Government far behind the SDP Green GovernmentADF and the left voting against such a Government as well as FDP and CDU most unlikely Due to the trauma of the Weimar era, minority government are frowned upon. Yes, everyone says that and everyone believes that. But it is a "legend" (=lie), like the one in my Austria, that the First Republic failed because Christ- & SocialDemocrats did not work together. Both were invented after 1945 to hide the for liberal democrats embarassing fact of a Nat.Bolsh.-majority in the final days - Weimar ended rather, because its fringes were not fragmented&instable enough! (Just as the CSR worked exactly due to its enormous fragmentation.)
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 9, 2021 13:36:12 GMT
Due to the trauma of the Weimar era, minority government are frowned upon. Yes, everyone says that and everyone believes that. But it is a "legend" (=lie), like the one in my Austria, that the First Republic failed because Christ- & SocialDemocrats did not work together. Both were invented after 1945 to hide the for liberal democrats embarassing fact of a Nat.Bolsh.-majority in the final days - Weimar ended rather, because its fringes were not fragmented&instable enough! (Just as the CSR worked exactly due to its enormous fragmentation.) Note that I said "trauma of the Weimar era" without details for a reason.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 9, 2021 14:03:35 GMT
Yes, everyone says that and everyone believes that. But it is a "legend" (=lie), like the one in my Austria, that the First Republic failed because Christ- & SocialDemocrats did not work together. Both were invented after 1945 to hide the for liberal democrats embarassing fact of a Nat.Bolsh.-majority in the final days - Weimar ended rather, because its fringes were not fragmented&instable enough! (Just as the CSR worked exactly due to its enormous fragmentation.) Note that I said "trauma of the Weimar era" without details for a reason. Yes, i knew.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 9, 2021 14:52:38 GMT
All of this wd be a highly relevant discussion if there was a theoretical r2g majority - in which case a redgreen minority gov't would be a viable option and tradition the main reason not to try it. As is... nah. Might as well talk about an SSW minority administration. At least they wouldn't lie to us - ask Otto Waalkes if you don't believe me.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 9, 2021 20:37:44 GMT
As is... nah. Might as well talk about an SSW minority administration. At least they wouldn't lie to us - ask Otto Waalkes if you don't believe me. This is a magnificently surreal reference. Very funny.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 10, 2021 10:32:01 GMT
Here be the promised remaining maps. I actually made these two after the other parliamentary parties and it was only here that I caught the one change in the day precinct map. It's not corrected in the other maps. I think I may have to make an SPD change map. It seems really remarkable how they failed to improve in the oldgrowth central areas. Scales are adapted from the maps I made for the local election but usually not identical - eg despite polling a virtually identical share of the vote citywide the Greens now have no result under 7.5 but do have results over 40, so every shade's meaning has moved up one step. I think the FDP ate up most of the missing Volt vote? Deserves further study, though. main others in Frankfurt were Todenhöfer 1.4, Volt 1.4, Basis 1.1, Tierschutz 1.1, Partei 0.9, FW 0.8. Todenhöfer - who got 0.46% nationally, barely too little to get his hands on sweet gov't cash but still a somewhat impressive showing - would appear to be by far the most responsible for turning this into a map of sink-y estates. This of course is even more so. Turnout in a couple of precincts grazed 90. Been a while since that happened (possibly not since 2002?) That can probably be considered functionally a 100% turnout in this time and day. Using the same scale for joke's sake. Obviously requiring far fewer shades, though, though an evocative pattern does emerge. Lots of provincial small towns in the lower turnout bands - paging Lisa Nandy. I also looked up the breakdown in that one >12.5 Other municipality (Schaafheim): 4.3% FW, 2.7% Basis (both doing even better in the annexed villages), 1.9% Tierschutz (doing better in the town itself).
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 14, 2021 17:48:01 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 14, 2021 21:13:05 GMT
Beuel sticks out to me. Rodenkirchen too.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2021 18:42:53 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 23, 2021 2:30:38 GMT
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