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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 3, 2021 10:47:10 GMT
Why does the Tierschutzpartei (ie animal rights) have that unusual combination of doing well in almost all eastern Germany (including ex-West Berlin) and also Saarland and adjacent bits of Rheinland-Pfalz? East Germany is presumably the generic disengaged protest vote (animal welfare is the kind of thing fairly apolitical people could care about and easily identify Tierschutz as supporting), while Saarland had the Green’s missing from the list vote. Not sure about West Berlin (it doesn’t seem a bobo vote given its stronger in the suburbs than the city centre). I *think* the party is slightly better organized in Berlin than elsewhere, where it's basically just a feelgood nota option for uninformed wellmeaning people, often very young (and probably has the best votes-per-campaign effort ratio of all German parties...) I *think* this is true of Brandenburg as well. It's impossible to verify this on the net. Note that despite the low pop density, much of Brandenburg is Berlin commuterland nowadays - and (since the suburban growth couldn't start before the 90s and took some time to take off even then) this suburban population is relatively young. However that may be, it's not a one-off - the party has only once contested a Brandenburg state election, the last one, but got its best ever vote share in any German election in that. The Green absence is presumably a factor in the Saar result - as it certainly is in the Partei's - but it's also a place that's naturally good for generic feelgood nota votes for much the same reasons as East Germany. (The Familienpartei used to have that same Saar-and-East support pattern but they've more or less disbanded or merged into FW).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 3, 2021 12:09:06 GMT
What's the reason for the lack of FW strength in the North-West compared to the rest of the country?
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 3, 2021 17:26:16 GMT
What's the reason for the lack of FW strength in the North-West compared to the rest of the country? the best guess I could venture is cultural alien-ness of a party perceived as Bavarian? Maybe? And organizational weakness probably - though that's a chicken-and-egg thing? Also northwestern leaders of both CDU and SPD - many of their combined best results are in the region? But I wouldn't view that as a major factor.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,369
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Post by YL on Oct 3, 2021 18:42:55 GMT
What's the reason for the lack of FW strength in the North-West compared to the rest of the country? the best guess I could venture is cultural alien-ness of a party perceived as Bavarian? Maybe? And organizational weakness probably - though that's a chicken-and-egg thing? Also northwestern leaders of both CDU and SPD - many of their combined best results are in the region? But I wouldn't view that as a major factor. I'd guess organisational weakness is a factor given the way it coincides with the border between Rheinland-Pfalz and Nordrhein-Westfalen. They passed the threshold in the last state election in the former. Who votes for FW, roughly? Disaffected Union voters who can't imagine voting for any of the other established parties?
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 4, 2021 4:59:41 GMT
Minor parties Certainly SecondVotes?
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 4, 2021 6:35:46 GMT
Minor parties Certainly SecondVotes? yes. I'm largely ignoring the direct vote except as a curiosity, and only mapping the list vote (and if the nationwide table by political district were out already would probably be mapping these instead. But we'll have to wait until some time after the official final result for that.)
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 4, 2021 9:28:11 GMT
There's at least one first-time-ever federal SPD win here in Stadtallendorf - fairly working class, industrial newtownish place in ancestral Catholic enclave territory (Allendorf proper used to be called Katholisch Allendorf!), high Vertriebenen descendant population, high Gastarbeiter descendant population too. The scales on the Green, AfD and Left maps are kept stable compared to (except that I didn't use to need a <5 share)* and uh that series of Left maps for 05-17 I did in february *bottom 5 results Marburg 4.62% Kronberg (very posh Taunus slope suburb) 4.67% Mühltal (most urbane/bobo of the Darmstadt suburbs) 4.68% Frankfurt 5.05% Darmstadt 5.10% The Green and Left maps are markedly urban... Cornberg was the Left's best result in 2009, now they barely manage 2% there and it's the AfD's best result.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 4, 2021 9:33:21 GMT
What's the reason for the lack of FW strength in the North-West compared to the rest of the country? the best guess I could venture is cultural alien-ness of a party perceived as Bavarian? Maybe? And organizational weakness probably - though that's a chicken-and-egg thing? Also northwestern leaders of both CDU and SPD - many of their combined best results are in the region? But I wouldn't view that as a major factor. Imagine trying to explain to a Bavarian that something could be too Bavarian.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 4, 2021 19:19:10 GMT
Oskar Lafontaine (who didn't run this time) has announced his retirement from politics. Allegedly.
Regardless of one's views of him, it has been quite an incredible career.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 4, 2021 21:06:21 GMT
Oskar Lafontaine (who didn't run this time) has announced his retirement from politics. Allegedly. Regardless of one's views of him, it has been quite an incredible career. First elected to public office in 1970 and certainly had a roller coaster political career.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,892
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Post by jamie on Oct 4, 2021 22:15:03 GMT
Just noticed that AKK actually did relatively well in Saarbrücken. She obviously lost, but ran 5% ahead of the CDU list vote despite facing an SPD incumbent and there being no Green option on the list.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 4, 2021 23:42:59 GMT
Oskar Lafontaine (who didn't run this time) has announced his retirement from politics. Allegedly. Regardless of one's views of him, it has been quite an incredible career. First elected to public office in 1970 and certainly had a roller coaster political career. Not least surviving an attempt to kill him (the same year as the attempted murder of another big beast, Wolfgang Schäuble).
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 5, 2021 7:13:20 GMT
Couldn't keep scales stable. I'll probably do turnout and combined other maps at some point but will now return to the Frankfurt project. I've been emailed a list of where postal precincts actually are.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 5, 2021 14:31:42 GMT
Hmmm... something doesn't seem quite right here. These precincts cover the same area - it's the very precinct I captained during the local elections in fact. The first, city, step in finalizing the results happened three days ago. What's impossible to find out (for a while yet) is whether the error was spotted and corrected. The official press release merely states 'only minor changes'. I'm not going to call the election office again.
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Post by Dalek Prime on Oct 5, 2021 17:48:24 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 5, 2021 20:16:12 GMT
Well, figures like Laschet would doubtlessly sell themselves out entirely. Nevertheless it won't succeed.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 5, 2021 20:52:29 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 6, 2021 4:49:11 GMT
Includes the error as-is.
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 6, 2021 13:56:59 GMT
Could just be a pointed power play towards SPD but interesting non the less "going through the motions" is the phrase I'd have used. This was primarily about helping Lindner keep his face. Three way negotiations (still 'soundings', with Jamaica not *officially* off the table) between SPD FDP & Greens start tomorrow.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 6, 2021 15:53:48 GMT
Could just be a pointed power play towards SPD but interesting non the less "going through the motions" is the phrase I'd have used. This was primarily about helping Lindner keep his face. Three way negotiations (still 'soundings', with Jamaica not *officially* off the table) between SPD FDP & Greens start tomorrow. France24 have just said that Lindner and Baerbock are making positive noises (and have appeared together earlier today) . Obviously it's the coalition that makes the most sense, but if those two parties are willing to work together now, this might be faster than expected. Of course, like that volcano on La Palma, it is far too long since the FDP last collapsed a government!
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