Swiss NonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

%-changes in cantonal elections since the federal one last fall:

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 27, 2020 17:08:16 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Sept 27, 2020 16:46:19 GMT @kipper1 said:

That's good that its higher than expected. Although it still keeps Switzerland tied into the Bilaterals and free movement of course the better than expected result for Yes is I hope good for Swiss resistance to the proposed EU vassal state Treaty. As you know the EU, Michel Barnier and pro EU politicians in Switzerland have been spending the last few years pushing to replace the Bilaterals with a Ukraine style vassal state treaty that would essentially subordinate all of Swiss law to the ECJ under 'dynamic allignement'

A chunk of the No voters today will be people who are not enthusiastic about further integration or subordination of Switzerland to the EU but who were nervous about making any sudden break. With over 38% voting Yes that only needs to be a quarter of today's No voters to block the new proposed treaty. Has there been any polling on the new proposed Treaty you know about?

I haven't found more than an OpinionPoll from May 2019:

www.cash.ch/news/politik/umfrage-kaum-unterstuetzung-fuer-eu-rahmenvertrag-im-volk-1339655

Not more than 20% support for the "RahmenVertrag" with the EU. And tomorrow "the SocialPartners" (= at least the TradeUnions) will announce their opposition to the treaty. And EU "loses more and more its patience" with its naughty StepChild CH, i.e. plays hard.

Institute "Gfs Bern" conducted an OpinionPoll (n=~12.000) with support for that "FrameTreaty" with the EU slightly ahead (but it's still quite open):

[Georg Ebner]

The full report of their OpinionPoll can be found here:

cockpit.gfsbern.ch/de/cockpit/nachanalyse-begrenzungsinitiative/

No surprises. The fear of being excluded from EU's CommonMarket topped it all:

[Georg Ebner]

Elections will be held in Aargau:
CantonalParliamentary ElectionResults:

GovernmentComposition (women left, men right):

Today a FlyingOver- (or rather DrivingThrough-) land between Zurich, Bern, Basel with lots of industry (33% instead of nation 23% working there), its "-gau" sounds Carolingian, but in fact the Aargau is a Napoleonic merger (like ThurGau) of a calvinistic West (exBern) and a catholic North (Frickental) and East (Baden):

[Georg Ebner]

CH's youngest canton - Jura - will go to the polls tomorrow, too:

[Georg Ebner]

In Aargau it is said by InSiders, that the 4 incumbent ministers will be reelected. For me OutSider the second SVP-seat doesn't look safe, though. SPS should be able to defend its minister, but TheGreens-contender is not far behind, pointing to a RunOff.

Despite all the calalmities SVP-Aargau has suffered in the last 1.5 years (i reported them here), resulting in -6.5% last fall's GeneralElection, they are so far stagnating. GPS and even more the GreenLiberals have gained (+2%, +3%), while SPS and FDP have lost support.

The TurnOut was before today (i.e. postal votes) very low, apparently everywhere.

[Georg Ebner]

In canton Jura PDC/CVP has to fear to lose its PolePosition for the first time to PSS/SPS. Although rural the canton has been trending to the Left.

[Georg Ebner]

Aargau, government-election (4/11 districts counted):

[Georg Ebner]

Aargau, ministers (final result):


No change in the government's PartyComposition. Once again 5 men. The GREENS-candidate was very unknown, so a not bad OutCome for her.

[Georg Ebner]

Aargau, parliament (6/11):



Quite surprising for SVP, but the more urban areas (Aarau, Baden,...) are missing.

[Georg Ebner]

Aargau, strongest minister-candidate:

[Georg Ebner]

Jura (24/53 municipalities counted):



Eray is from PCSI/CSP (left "catholics"). Since this year Jura has had a left majority in the cabinet (2 PS, 1 PCSI; 1 PDC, 1 PLR).

[Georg Ebner]

TurnOut in Aargau was below 1/3.

[Georg Ebner]

Aargau, GovernmentElection, SPS-vs.-GPS:

[Georg Ebner]

Aargau, parliament:



Finally an expected OutCome.

[Georg Ebner]

In Aargau CVP is sometimes more to the right than FDP.
Petitions in the 2016-2020-session:

[Georg Ebner]

Aargau, parliament:

[Georg Ebner]

Jura, ministers (42/53):



Seems, that MidRight can win back its majority lost in March. The PDCI-incumbetn has had difficulties in office concerning environmental protection.

[Georg Ebner]

50/53 counted: