Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 27, 2018 15:20:22 GMT
This SunDay 3 small Inneralpine cantons - Obwalden, Nidwalden and Glarus - are going to elect their parliaments: 
Most interesting will be Glarus, one of BDP's 3 fortresses (BDP split from SVP, which was itself a merger of the BGB and the exFDP [democratic/left wing] Democrats; the latter had been strong in Glarus). The left parties (naturally weak in these cantons) will try to come back into governments.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 27, 2018 15:32:50 GMT
ZurichCity will go to the polls, too:  CityGovernments:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 27, 2018 15:39:17 GMT
2 referenda will take place, too.
One is about federal-cantonal finances.
The other one ("No Billag") is a desperate try of SVP and the RightWing of FDP to abolish PublicFunding for the public BroadCaster. It won't have any chances.
According to some polls the younger generation is more favourable (undetected by another company).
"NoBillag"-OpinionPoll (conducted by GFS.Bern):
Parties:
Ages:
Rural (left) vs. urban (right):
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 27, 2018 18:02:28 GMT
All NoBillag"-polls:  OnlinePolls have been made by SOTOMO, but their participants (grey) differ by age from those, who actually turn our (yellow and purple):  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 4, 2018 22:12:44 GMT
"No Billag" was highly rejected (no surprise), especially in Ticino (also no surprise), the French being not very different to Germans (a surprise).
As often in CH, a high turn-out for a referendum with a clear victory was helpful in elections for parliaments&governments, too.
In ZurichCity the triumphant Left defended its 6-7 out of 9 ministers (1AL:2GP:3SP:1GreenLib:2FDP) and regained a clear majority in the CityCouncil:
32.39%+3.20%=43+4 SPS
16.30%+0.27%=21+0 FDP
13.41%-3.93%=17-6 SVP
11.86%+1.29%=16+2 GPS
10.56%+0.37%=14+1 GLP (GreenLib)
07.54%+1.08%=10+2 AL (leftextreme)
03.74%-0.90%=00-6 CVP
02.96%-0.42%=04+4 BDP&EVP (moderateProtestants)
01.24%-0.97% others
In the second-largest city of Kanton Zurich - Winterthur - SVP lost a minister (gained at a for them victorious referendum 2015) to SPS and in consequence the Left will have majorities in all executives of SwitzerLand's 10 biggest cities (less Locarno/TI).
The small cantons in InnerS. (Obwalden, Nidwalden, Glarus) remained quite stable, though.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 8, 2018 17:40:48 GMT
How have the parties performed in cantonal elections since the FederalElection 2015?:  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 23, 2018 6:55:00 GMT
The second-biggest canton - Bern - is electing parliament:
...and government. The french minority in the Jura is entitled to 1 minister. Last time they voted for the SVP-nominee, but before the Jurassiens had preferred left candidates and as a result the left had held 4/7 seats in the executive, while the parliament was quite rightwing.
In the small alpine canton Glarus will occur the RunOff for their ministers.
Both cantons are crucial for the survival of BDP.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 25, 2018 18:00:55 GMT
In canton Bern SVP defended its incumbent french minister against SPS clearly (96.000:76.000, in the JuraBernois 5.600:3.600).
The parliament could see a small shift to the left. SVP has had losses, FDP gains recently (see the OverView above).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 25, 2018 18:05:06 GMT
Does anyone have any remarks or questions on anything? Hope, that i can help.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 25, 2018 18:07:55 GMT
No questions from me but thanks very much for all the interesting information and data.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 25, 2018 20:57:16 GMT
Bern-parliament is counted and both - SVP and BDP (that moderate SVP-splinter) lost 2%, strongly for swiss levels, while SPS (and FDP) recovered:
29.5% Participation (RecordLow)
26.76 (-2.24) SVP (RecordLow so far: 26.60% in 2010, when BDP emerged)
22.23 (+3.13) SPS
11.65 (+0.95) FDP
09.94 (+0.14) GreenP.S.
09.02 (-2.18) BDP (2010: 16.00%, 2014: 11.20%; neither their final survival nor their end)
06.91 (+0.21) GreenLiberalP.
06.17 (-0.23) EVP (Left-"Christians")
03.58 (-0.52) EDU (orthodox Calvinists)
00.68 (-0.02) PSA (leftextreme)
00.45 (-0.35) CVP (exCatholics)
02.61 (+1.01) others
As You can see in the OverView above, the old BGB/SVP was very strong in Bern and vice versa Bern delivered ~50% of votes and seats to BGB/SVP before the rise of Blocher.
Bern was (in)famous for being conservative in the sense of slow-speed and immobility, its Burghers and peasants proud of a big past, when Vaud&Jura were part of it. Blocher (from ArchRival Zurich) has been too antietatist and business-friendly for the taste of the not so wealthy Bern.
Nowadays the canton can be split into a highly RedGreen capital (federal CivilServants!), what means also large SubUrbs, remote&conservative areas towards/in the Alps ("UpperLand", the only area except Glarus and GrauBünden, where Calvinism is alive) and small working-class cities in the french JuraBernois, similar to the cantons Jura&Neuenburg and with some inclination to populism. Summa summarum, Bern can be called the swiss Ohio, i.e. a SwitzerLand en miniature.
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Post by uhurasmazda on Mar 25, 2018 21:53:28 GMT
06.17 (-0.23) EVP (Left-"Christians") Any particular reason for the scare-quotes? They seem pretty conservative on moral issues, from what I've read. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 25, 2018 23:59:53 GMT
06.17 (-0.23) EVP (Left-"Christians") Any particular reason for the scare-quotes? They seem pretty conservative on moral issues, from what I've read. The homo religiosus watches the world with irony, is not really absorbed by the bourgeoisie's left "idealism" (=phariseeism: "change the world"/"reforms"/...), but also not by right "realism" (=cynism). EVP is indeed strange, concerning environment, immigration, social affairs totally left and trying to ignore abortion, homosexuality aso. as much as possible. But when i advised their PartyPresident ~15 years ago to take the CVP-whip (what they did later), his very surprising answer was, that the midright CVP wasn't christian enough for them... It has been reported, that the americanoid sects ("FreeChurches") have gained a certain influence not only in EDU, but also in EVP. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 26, 2018 0:19:11 GMT
06.17 (-0.23) EVP (Left-"Christians") Any particular reason for the scare-quotes? They seem pretty conservative on moral issues, from what I've read. They don't hate the "homosexuals" enough for the tastes of Georg. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 26, 2018 1:03:34 GMT
Any particular reason for the scare-quotes? They seem pretty conservative on moral issues, from what I've read. They don't hate the "homosexuals" enough for the tastes of Georg. I don't hate homosexuals. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 26, 2018 1:17:56 GMT
The gains for the Left were achieved via mobilization in the left cities of Bern (SPS: 33.3%,+8.3%) and Biel/Bienne, where they campaigned successfully on "Schnegg muss weg!" ("Schnegg [the french SVP-minister responsible for reforms in health&social services] must go!"), what was decisive in one of Bern's most solid/boring campaigns; and Bern is - as mentioned above (copied from austrian H.WEIGEL, who wrote the best book on Switzerland according to swiss chauvinists) - the most solid/boring canton of a solid/boring country.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 26, 2018 1:31:32 GMT
In the canton Fribourg/Freiburg im Uechtland a GPS-ministress had to step down.
The first round was jungle, but while SVP is used support FDP-/CVP-candidates in the RunOffs, the GREENS were irritated by a SPS-rival, who narrowly came into the SecondRound. As a result GPS didn't endorse the red nominee, what let the FDP-man win.
New government: 3 CVP, 2 FDP, 2 SPS
Fribourg is a place of some hope for SPS, but so far the left parties assemble ~1/3%, meaning, that 2 out of 7 ministers fit as soon as they are divided.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2018 10:02:40 GMT
The gains for the Left were achieved via mobilization in the left cities of Bern (SPS: 33.3%,+8.3%) and Biel/Bienne, where they campaigned successfully on "Schnegg muss weg!" ("Schnegg [the french SVP-minister responsible for reforms in health&social services] must go!"), what was decisive in one of Bern's most solid/boring campaigns; and Bern is - as mentioned above (copied from austrian H.WEIGEL, who wrote the best book on Switzerland according to swiss chauvinists) - the most solid/boring canton of a solid/boring country. Even more boring than Zurich? „Halb so groß wie Zürich - aber doppelt so lustig ist der Wiener Zentralfriedhof!“ |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 3, 2018 11:37:50 GMT
How have the parties performed in cantonal elections in the last few years?:  CVP (with its recent RightCourse under PartyPresident Pfister) and SVP are clearly in a crisis. SVP-Bern tried it this time with TelephonTerror like SPS did successfully. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 3, 2018 11:41:45 GMT
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