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Post by Right Leaning on Mar 16, 2018 11:00:59 GMT
While we wait for Redcar & Cleveland, a couple of further thoughts on Stamford: 1. Its remarkable how though our predictions are all over the place, it all evens out in the end and indeed how many people did brilliantly on one Stamford result and then were way out on the other- we rather expected the two wards to behave quite differently and in fact they were quite similar. 2. Quite a Tory revival in Stamford compared with last week. Does anyone think there was a Salisbury effect? Are the Russians impacting on our elections in a quite unforseen way? edit:the Redcar result came in while I was posting this and provides more evidence that that might be right? |
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Post by Right Leaning on Mar 16, 2018 11:04:28 GMT
I was thinking the same thing about a Salisbury effect but then said not reflect it in my prediction.
I asked someone at work if it would sway the way she would vote and she said no. But I suspect it does for many people.
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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 16, 2018 11:05:04 GMT
Provisional numbers subject to confirmation by middleenglander.
The Redcar result was won by AJS, putting him first for the week ahead of ricmk and greenrobinhood.
The month has Robert still ahead, with ricmk in second and andrewp in third. Around 90 faults between second and fourteenth, so all to play for next week.
Week rankings:
AJS - 90.8
ricmk - 101.0
greenrobinhood - 104.8
robertwaller - 112.8
Right Leaning - 112.9
Yellow Peril - 113.3
olympian95 - 116.4
dibs - 121.0
K9 - 134.9
andrewp - 135.8
robbienicoll - 137.9
David Boothroyd - 147.1
Lancastrian - 151.5
hempie - 151.8
Priceofdawn - 193.1
Month rankings:
robertwaller - 420.4
ricmk - 479.9
andrewp - 499.3
Right Leaning - 499.6
AJS - 517.1
olympian95 - 518.1
greenrobinhood - 520.8
Lancastrian - 539.7
David Boothroyd - 549.9
robbienicoll - 550.8
dibs- 551.7
K9 - 552.4
Yellow Peril - 552.5
hempie - 569.7
Priceofdawn - 687.8
Spreadsheet available further up the thread.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Mar 16, 2018 11:16:19 GMT
Provisional numbers subject to confirmation by middleenglander. The Redcar result was won by AJS, putting him first for the week ahead of greenrobinhood and Robert Waller. The month has Robert still ahead, with andrewp in second and ricmk in third. The gap from last night has somehow narrowed further, with approximately 63 faults separating 2nd from 14th. All to play for next week. Week rankings: AJS - 91.6 greenrobinhood - 102.2 Robertwaller - 106.2 Yellow Peril - 112.7 ricmk - 113.2 dibs - 113.8 Right Leaning - 114.4 olympian95 - 119.2 robbienicoll - 121.3 andrewp - 123.2 David Boothroyd - 130.5 K9 - 132.9 hempie - 133.7 Lancastrian - 150.3 Priceofdawn - 203.2 Month rankings: robertwaller - 413.8 andrewp - 486.7 ricmk - 492.1 Right Leaning - 501.1 AJS - 517.9 greenrobinhood - 518.2 olympian95 - 520.9 David Boothroyd - 533.3 robbienicoll - 534.2 Lancastrian - 538.5 dibs- 544.5 K9 - 550.4 hempie - 551.6 Yellow Peril - 551.9 Priceofdawn - 697.9 Spreadsheet available further up the thread. Robbie - thanks for this. I've had a look at your spreadsheet and can you double check your formula for Redcar? I think at first glance all the faults are calculated from the difference to the Conservative score (column C) rather than the individual party score. Might be wrong. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 16, 2018 11:37:47 GMT
Provisional numbers subject to confirmation by middleenglander. The Redcar result was won by AJS, putting him first for the week ahead of greenrobinhood and Robert Waller. The month has Robert still ahead, with andrewp in second and ricmk in third. The gap from last night has somehow narrowed further, with approximately 63 faults separating 2nd from 14th. All to play for next week. Week rankings: AJS - 91.6 greenrobinhood - 102.2 Robertwaller - 106.2 Yellow Peril - 112.7 ricmk - 113.2 dibs - 113.8 Right Leaning - 114.4 olympian95 - 119.2 robbienicoll - 121.3 andrewp - 123.2 David Boothroyd - 130.5 K9 - 132.9 hempie - 133.7 Lancastrian - 150.3 Priceofdawn - 203.2 Month rankings: robertwaller - 413.8 andrewp - 486.7 ricmk - 492.1 Right Leaning - 501.1 AJS - 517.9 greenrobinhood - 518.2 olympian95 - 520.9 David Boothroyd - 533.3 robbienicoll - 534.2 Lancastrian - 538.5 dibs- 544.5 K9 - 550.4 hempie - 551.6 Yellow Peril - 551.9 Priceofdawn - 697.9 Spreadsheet available further up the thread. Robbie - thanks for this. I've had a look at your spreadsheet and can you double check your formula for Redcar? I think at first glance all the faults are calculated from the difference to the Conservative score (column C) rather than the individual party score. Might be wrong. Great spot, thanks for that. I'd done the same with the two Stamford results but didn't notice Redcar. That does change up the rankings so will edit those just now. |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 16, 2018 11:47:39 GMT
I was thinking the same thing about a Salisbury effect but then said not reflect it in my prediction. I asked someone at work if it would sway the way she would vote and she said no. But I suspect it does for many people. In these results it would not have required it to be more than a few people- Tories who were wavering or maybe inclined not to vote, to have their intentions stiffened - say about 50 people in each of these 3 seats would have made a big difference to how the result looked. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 16, 2018 12:18:16 GMT
But compare the Stamford results with the last time the town voted - in May 2017 - and the Conservatives have dropped considerably, not risen.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 16, 2018 13:27:34 GMT
But compare the Stamford results with the last time the town voted - in May 2017 - and the Conservatives have dropped considerably, not risen. Hmm .. by 2017 you presumably have in mind the County elections so its not quite a fair comparison in my view- Tories did well in the counties, and Lib Dems did poorly, where people were tending to vote more on national and less on local issues. These local by-elections were more locally relevant and the Indy contribution marks that. But I wonder if the present state of the nation contributed to a slight strengthening in the Conservative vote and a slight weakening in the Labour vote , i.e. a slightly greater tendency for people to vote along national party lines than would otherwise have been the case. If anything that tendency was more obvious at Redcar than at Stamford. The contrast with last week is marked, and okay could be just down to local circumstances, but I'm not convinced. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2018 13:54:05 GMT
But compare the Stamford results with the last time the town voted - in May 2017 - and the Conservatives have dropped considerably, not risen. Hmm .. by 2017 you presumably have in mind the County elections so its not quite a fair comparison in my view- Tories did well in the counties, and Lib Dems did poorly, where people were tending to vote more on national and less on local issues. These local by-elections were more locally relevant and the Indy contribution marks that. But I wonder if the present state of the nation contributed to a slight strengthening in the Conservative vote and a slight weakening in the Labour vote , i.e. a slightly greater tendency for people to vote along national party lines than would otherwise have been the case. If anything that tendency was more obvious at Redcar than at Stamford. The contrast with last week is marked, and okay could be just down to local circumstances, but I'm not convinced. tbf the movement is minimal in both the swing in Redcar is 1.5% to the Tories and in Stamford 1% to Labour. |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 16, 2018 16:13:12 GMT
For week 3:| Authority | Weeks 1 & 2 | Redcar &
Cleveland
| South
Kesteven
| South
Kesteven | Week 3 | Week 3 | Weeks 1 - 3 | Weeks 1 - 3 | | Ward | faults
| Longbeck
| Stamford
St George's
| Stamford
St John's
| faults | position | faults | position
| ajs
| 426.3 | 30.0
| 31.2
| 29.5
| 90.8
| 1st
| 517.1
| 5th
| | andrewp | 363.5 | 48.0+10
| 32.8
| 35.0+10
| 135.8
| 10th
| 499.2
| 3rd
| | David Boothroyd | 402.8 | 60.0+10
| 26.8+10
| 40.3
| 147.1
| 12th
| 549.9
| 9th
| dibs
| 430.7 | 38.0+10
| 38.5
| 34.5
| 121.0
| 8th
| 551.7
| 11th
| greenrobinhood
| 416.0 | 36.0+10
| 29.2
| 29.5
| 104.8
| 3rd
| 520.8
| 7th
| | hempie | 417.9 | 58.0+10
| 20.8
| 53.0+10
| 151.8
| 14th
| 569.7
| 14th
| k9
| 417.5 | 35.4+10
| 48.5
| 41.0
| 134.9
| 9th
| 552.4
| 12th
| | Lancastrian | 388.2 | 32.0+10
| 58.5+10
| 41.0
| 151.5
| 13th
| 539.7
| 8th
| Olympian95
| 401.7 | 40.6+10
| 10.8
| 45.0+10
| 116.4
| 7th
| 518.1
| 6th
| priceofdawn
| 494.7 | 59.9
| 43.4
| 89.8
| 193.1
| 15th
| 687.9
| 15th
| ricmk
| 378.9 | 33.2
| 12.8
| 45.0+10
| 101.0
| 2nd
| 479.9
| 2nd
| Right Leaning
| 386.7 | 32.0+10
| 34.8
| 36.1
| 112.9
| 5th
| 499.6
| 4th
| robbienicoll
| 412.9 | 56.0+10
| 50.1+10
| 11.8
| 137.9
| 11th
| 550.8
| 10th
| Robert Waller
| 307.6 | 38.0+10
| 30.5
| 34.3
| 112.8
| 4th
| 420.3
| 1st
| Yellow Peril
| 439.2 | 36.6+10
| 36.5
| 30.3
| 113.4
| 6th
| 552.5
| 13th
| Total faults
| 6,084.6 | 633.9+120
| 505.2+30
| 595.9+40
| 1,925.0
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| 8,009.6
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Objections please by noon Sunday. There are 7 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 17, 2018 11:18:27 GMT
Interesting that priceofdawn was one of only two of us to get all 3 results right, yet finished last.
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Mar 19, 2018 21:49:08 GMT
Aylesbury Vale DC, Central and Walton ward
Con 40 Lab 30 Ind 7 Lib Dem 20 Green 3
Bassetlaw DC, Worksop SE Ward
Lab 60 Con 30 LD 10
Cheshire East DC Bunbury Ward
Con 60 Lab 30 Lib Dem 5 Green 5
Chiltern DC Ridgeway Ward
Con 50 Lab 40 Lib Dem 10
Midlothian UA Penicuik Ward
Con 40 SNP 30 Lab 27 Green 3
Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West Ward
Con 40 Lab 30 Ind 20 Lib Dem 10
Thurrock BC, Ockenden ward
Con 40 Thurrock Inds 35 Lab 25
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 19, 2018 22:08:19 GMT
Aylesbury Vale DC, Central and Walton ward Con 40 Lab 30 Ind 7 Lib Dem 20 Green 3 Bassetlaw DC, Worksop SE Ward Lab 60 Con 30 LD 10 Cheshire East DC Bunbury Ward
Con 60 Lab 30 Lib Dem 15 Green 5Chiltern DC Ridgeway Ward Con 50 Lab 40 Lib Dem 10 Midlothian UA Penicuik Ward Con 40 SNP 30 Lab 27 Green 3 Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West Ward Con 40 Lab 30 Ind 20 Lib Dem 10 Thurrock BC, Ockenden ward Con 40 Thurrock Inds 35 Lab 25 I thought your Cheshire East figures looked odd. Possibly because it adds up to 110%! |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 21, 2018 22:59:45 GMT
My predictions for this week:
Aylesbury DC, Central & Walton: Liberal Democrats 41, Conservative 39, Labour 11, Green 5, Independent (Michael) 4.
Bassetlaw DC, Worksop South East: Labour 55, Conservative 40, Liberal Democrats 5.
Cheshire East UA, Bunbury: Conservative 61, Labour 26, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 5.
Chiltern DC, Ridgeway: Conservative 54, Liberal Democrats 37, Labour 9.
Midlothian UA, Penicuik (1st preference votes): Conservative 34, SNP 32, Labour 28, Green 6.
Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West: Conservative 48, Labour 27, Independent(Wales) 18, Liberal Democrats 7.
Thurrock UA, Ockenden: Conservative 42, Thurrock Independents 38, Labour 20.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 21, 2018 23:20:20 GMT
Aylesbury Vale DC, Central and Walton ward Con 40 Lab 30 Ind 7 Lib Dem 20 Green 3 Bassetlaw DC, Worksop SE Ward Lab 60 Con 30 LD 10 Cheshire East DC Bunbury Ward
Con 60 Lab 30 Lib Dem 15 Green 5Chiltern DC Ridgeway Ward Con 50 Lab 40 Lib Dem 10 Midlothian UA Penicuik Ward Con 40 SNP 30 Lab 27 Green 3 Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West Ward Con 40 Lab 30 Ind 20 Lib Dem 10 Thurrock BC, Ockenden ward Con 40 Thurrock Inds 35 Lab 25 I thought your Cheshire East figures looked odd. Possibly because it adds up to 110%! I note you have corrected it  Personally I would have knocked the 10 points off a different party ... |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 22, 2018 0:01:32 GMT
AYLESBURY VALE Central and Walton: C 37, L Dem 30, Lab 28, Ind 3, GP 2
BASSETLAW Worksop South East: Lab 69, C 23, L Dem 8
CHESHIRE EAST Bunbury: C 53, L Dem 25, Lab 17, GP 5
CHILTERN Ridgeway: Lab 45, L Dem 30, C 25
MIDLOTHIAN Penicuik: Lab 33, SNP 32, C 30, SGP 5
STAFFORDSHIRE MOORLANDS Leek West: C 53, Lab 23, L Dem 16, Ind 8
THURROCK Ockenden: C 41, Lab 36, Ind 23
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 22, 2018 0:19:13 GMT
Aylesbury DC, Central & Walton: Liberal Democrats 35, Conservative 30, Labour 20, Green 3, Independent (Michael) 12.
Bassetlaw DC, Worksop South East: Labour 64, Conservative 30, Liberal Democrats 6.
Cheshire East UA, Bunbury: Conservative 52, Labour 12, Liberal Democrats 32, Green 4.
Chiltern DC, Ridgeway: Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 23, Labour 39.
Midlothian UA, Penicuik (1st preference votes): Conservative 32, SNP 33, Labour 32, Green 3.
Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West: Conservative 40, Labour 28, Independent(Wales) 22, Liberal Democrats 10.
Thurrock UA, Ockenden: Conservative 25, Thurrock Independents 38, Labour 37.
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Post by lancastrian on Mar 22, 2018 1:06:30 GMT
Aylesbury: LD 36 Con 31 Lab 21 Ind 8 Green 4
Bassetlaw: Lab 60 Con 26 LD 14
Cheshire East: Con 55 Lab 25 LD 15 Green 5
Chiltern: Lab 38 Con 34 LD 28
Midlothian: Lab 37 SNP 31 Con 26 Green 6
Staffs Moorlands: Con 40 Lab 32 Ind 17 LD 11
Thurrock: Thurrock Inds 38 Con 36 Lab 26
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 22, 2018 3:13:03 GMT
Aylesbury, Central & Walton: Con 36, Lab 15, LD 39, Green 6, Ind 4
Bassetlaw, Worksop SE: Con 26,Lab 65, LD 9
Cheshire East, Bunbury: Con 62, Lab 12,LD 20, Green 6
Chiltern, Ridgeway: Con 40, Lab 35, LD 25
Midlothian,Penicuik (1st Prefs): Con 31, Lab 33, Green 6, SNP 30
Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek W: Con 38, Lab 32, LD 15, Ind 15
Thurrock,Ockenden: Con 35, Lab 32, THIN 33
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Post by andrewp on Mar 22, 2018 7:07:28 GMT
Aylesbury, Central and Walton Lib Dem 39, Con 30, Lab 18, Ind 9 Green 4
Bassetlaw, Worksop SE Lab 70, Con 20, Lib Dem 10
Cheshire East, Banbury Con 52, Lib Dem 28, Lab 16, Green 4
Children Ridgeway Con 37, Lab 36, Lib Dem 27
Midlothian Penicuik Lab 38, Con 31, SNP 27, Green 4
Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek West Con 37, Lab 33, Ind 21, Lib Dem 9
Thurrock, Ockenden Con 42 lab 32,ind 26
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Personally I would have knocked the 10 points off a different party ...