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Post by middleenglander on Feb 25, 2018 13:26:11 GMT
Amended:
It looks like 23 by-elections during March: * 4 on 01 March * 8 on 08 March * 3 on 15 March * 7 on 22 March * 1 on 29 March
11 of the by-elections are for district councils - 9 where there were "all out" elections in 2015, including 3 single member wards - 2 with "annual" elections last held in 2016, although with no election in these 2 member wards due in May 6 are in Unitary Authorities, 5 where elections were last held in 2015 and 1 with "annual" elections with another contest due in May 4 are for Metropolitan Boroughs where the last election was in 2016 2 are in Scotland where elections were held last year
Conservatives defend 12 seats, including one where the former Councillor was sitting as an Independent, 5 arising from a death and 7 a resignation Labour defend 6 seats, 2 after a death and 4 a resignation Liberal Democrats and SNP each defend 1 seat following a resignation Independents defend 2 seats, 1 after a death and 1 a resignation UKIP defends 1 seat following a resignation where the Councillor was sitting as Thurrock Independent
With all nominations now available: Conservatives contest all 23 seats, Labour 22, Liberal Democrats 18, Green 12 13, Independents 7, UKIP 5 and SNP 2 with 1 each for Bus Pass Elvis, Farnworth & Kearsley Residents, No Description and Thurrock Independents - a total of 93 94 candidates for 23 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the day of the election.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 28, 2018 17:56:51 GMT
Summary:
Basingstoke & Deane, Kempshott:
2016: Con 64.5% Lab 19.1% UKIP 16.4%
Candidates: Con Lab LD
Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North:
2017: (using highest vote only) Con 38.9% SNP 27.0% Lab 25.9% LD 8.3%
Candidates: Con SNP Lab LD Green
East Devon, Exmouth Town:
2015: LD 31.0% Con 25.1% Greens 23.3% Lab 20.7%
Candidates: LD Con Lab Green Ind
Solihull, Blythe:
2016: Con 51.1% Solihull and Meriden Residents Association 33.5% Lab 9.0% Green 6.4%
Candidates: Con Lab LD
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k9
Non-Aligned
Posts: 103
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Post by k9 on Feb 28, 2018 21:29:58 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane, Kempshott: Conservative 55, Liberal Democrat 25, Labour 20
Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North: SNP 40, Labour 25, Conservative 22, Liberal Democrat 9, Green 4
East Devon, Exmouth Town: Liberal Democrat 35, Conservative 30, Ind 15, Labour 10, Green 10
Solihull, Blythe: Conservative 60, Liberal Democrat 25, Labour 15
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Post by lancastrian on Feb 28, 2018 22:24:45 GMT
Summary: Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North: 2017: Con 38.9% SNP 27.0% Lab 25.9% LD 8.3% Candidates: Con SNP Lab LD Green In STV you need to add up the first preference votes of the multiple SNP and Labour candidates -the Conservatives really got the 3rd highest vote in 2017.
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Post by lancastrian on Feb 28, 2018 22:34:00 GMT
Basingstoke: Con 55 Lab 28 LD 17 Clackmannanshire: SNP 33 Con 32 Lab 28 LD 4 Green 3 East Devon: LD 30 Con 23 Green 22 Lab 15 Ind 10 Solihull: Con 50 LD 35 Lab 15
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 28, 2018 23:05:00 GMT
Summary: Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North: 2017: Con 38.9% SNP 27.0% Lab 25.9% LD 8.3% Candidates: Con SNP Lab LD Green In STV you need to add up the first preference votes of the multiple SNP and Labour candidates -the Conservatives really got the 3rd highest vote in 2017. Thanks for pointing this out.
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 28, 2018 23:09:49 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane, Kempshott: Conservative 60, Liberal Democrat 18, Labour 22
Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North: Conservative 25, SNP 36, Labour 32, Liberal Democrat 4, Green 3
East Devon, Exmouth Town: Liberal Democrat 32, Conservative 30, Ind 27, Labour 8, Green 3
Solihull, Blythe: Conservative 65, Liberal Democrat 20, Labour 15
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Feb 28, 2018 23:36:18 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane, Kempshott: Con 70 Lab 20 LD 10
Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North: SNP 35 Con 31 Lab 25 LD 5 Green 4
East Devon, Exmouth Town: LD 35 Con 25 Lab 20 Green 12 Ind 8
Solihull, Blythe: Con 55 Lab 15 LD 30
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 28, 2018 23:41:10 GMT
Basingstoke: Con 68, Lab 22, LD 10. Clackmannanshire: SNP 37, Lab 31, Con 24, LD 4, Green 4. East Devon: LD 31, Con 25, Lab 21, Ind 13, Green 10. Solihull: Con 65, LD 21, Lab 14.
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Post by andrewp on Feb 28, 2018 23:47:32 GMT
Basingstoke and Deane, Kempshott Con 62, Lab 19, Lib Dem 19 Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North SNP39, Lab 30, Con 23, Lib Dem 5, Green 3 East Devon, Exmouth Town Lib Dem 33, Con 27, Ind 19, Green 12, Lab 9 Solihull, Blythe Con 59, Lib Dem 30, Lab 11
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 28, 2018 23:55:06 GMT
BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE Kempshott: C 63, Lab 28, L Dem 9 CLACKMANNANSHIRE Clackmannanshire North: SNP 40, C 29, Lab 25, L Dem 4, SGP 2 EAST DEVON Exmouth Town: L Dem 41, C 28, Ind 19, Lab 9, GP 3 SOLIHULL Blythe: C 52, L Dem 37, Lab 11
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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 1, 2018 1:59:35 GMT
Basingstoke: Con 59; Lab 20; LD 21
Clackmannanshire: Con 25; Lab 27; LD 6; Green 5; SNP 37
East Devon: Con 34; Lab 9; LD 37; Green 3; Ind 17 Solihull: Con 45; Lab 16; LD 39
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 1, 2018 2:17:21 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane, Kempshott: Con 60, Lab 19, LD 20 Clackmannanshire North: Con 27, Lab 29, LD 5, Green 3, SNP 36 East Devon,Exmouth Town: Con 26, Lab 11, LD 36, Green 7, Ind 20 Solihull,Blythe: Con 63, Lab 10, LD 27
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2018 6:53:02 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane, Kempshott: Conservative 60, Liberal Democrat 10, Labour 30
Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North: Conservative 30, SNP 42, Labour 24, Liberal Democrat 2, Green 2
East Devon, Exmouth Town: Liberal Democrat 5, Conservative 38, Ind 32, Labour 23, Green 2
Solihull, Blythe: Conservative 76, Liberal Democrat 6, Labour 18
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Post by Right Leaning on Mar 1, 2018 8:04:03 GMT
Basingstoke: Kempshott - C 58, Lab 22, LD 20
Clackmannanshire: Clackmannan North - SNP 38, C 29, Lab 27, LD 4, Gn 2
East Devon: Exmouth Town - LD 38, C 26, Ind 22, Lab 10, Gn 4
Solihull: Blythe - C 56, LD 30, Lab 14
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hempie
Forum Regular
Posts: 875
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Post by hempie on Mar 1, 2018 8:26:10 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane, Kempshott: Con 53, Lab 25,LD 22 Clackmannanshire North: SNP 33, Con 29, Lab 28, LD 7, Green 3 East Devon,Exmouth Town: LD 33, Con 26, Ind 22, Lab 12, Green 7 Solihull,Blythe: Con 54, LD 32, Lab 14
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,274
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Post by ricmk on Mar 1, 2018 8:28:36 GMT
Assuming everything is still on (and a bit late to tell us now if not) BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE: C 60 Lab 26, L Dem 14 CLACKMANNANSHIRE: SNP 35 C 34 Lab 22, L Dem 6, Green 3 EAST DEVON: LD 45 C 31, Ind 14, Lab 8, Green 2 SOLIHULL: C 68, Lab 17 LD 15
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Post by olympian95 on Mar 1, 2018 8:30:04 GMT
Basingstoke: Con 61, Lab 24, LD 15 Clackmannanshire: Con 34, SNP 29, Lab 26, LD 7, Green 4 Exmouth: LD 36, Con 31, Ind 19, Lab 11, Green 3 Solihull Con 54, LD 28, Lab 18
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Post by greenhert on Mar 1, 2018 8:56:18 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott: Conservative 60, Labour 26, Liberal Democrats 14. Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannanshire North: SNP 35, Conservative 30, Labour 27, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3. East Devon DC, Exmouth Town: Liberal Democrats 38, Conservative 32, Independent (Currier) 14, Labour 9, Green 7. Solihull MBC, Blythe: Conservative 63, Liberal Democrats 22, Labour 15.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 1, 2018 9:17:04 GMT
We may have to consider what to do with this competition if any of the elections today get postponed. My feeling would be that if its a short term postponement say to tomorrow we should count the predictions as valid, but otherwise the predictions would be void as the circumstances of a re-run would change the likely numbers? Do others agree?
Anyway we seem to have lost one or two likely competitors compared with the last two months- competition fatigue or weather-bound?
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