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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 15, 2018 0:32:57 GMT
REDCAR AND CLEVELAND Longbeck: Ind 39, Lab 32, C 21, L Dem 8
SOUTH KESTEVEN Stamford St George's: Ind 37, C 34, Lab 16, L Dem 9, GP 4
SOUTH KESTEVEN Stamford St John's Ward: C 40, L Dem 35, Ind 12, Lab 9, GP 4
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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 15, 2018 1:57:30 GMT
Longbeck, Redcar and Cleveland: Con 19, Lab 37, LD 12, Ind 32
St George's, South Kesteven: Con 32, Lab 12, LD 34, Green 3, Ind 19
St John's, South Kesteven: Con 45, Lab 8, LD 17, Green 2, Ind 28
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 15, 2018 5:53:42 GMT
Redcar& Cleveland,Longbeck: Con 33, Lab 24, LD 8, Ind 35
South Kesteven, St George: Con 35, Lab 18, LD 26, Green 3, Ind 18
South Kesteven, St Johns: Con 45, Lab 10, LD 26, Green 2, Ind 17
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k9
Non-Aligned
Posts: 126 
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Post by k9 on Mar 15, 2018 5:58:33 GMT
Redcar: Lib Dem 34 Lab 29 Ind 22 Con 15
South Kesteven (St George): Con 35 Lab 34 LD 14 Ind 12 Green 5
South Kesteven (St John): Con 37 LD 30 Lab 15 Ind 14 Green 4
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Post by andrewp on Mar 15, 2018 7:50:38 GMT
Redcar and Cleveland, Longbeck Ind 35, Lab 30, Con 24, Lib Dem 11
South Kesteven, Stamford St George’s Con 36, ind 34 Lib Dem 17, Lab 10, Green 3
South Kesteven, Stamford St Johns Lib Dem 35, Con 33, Ind 21, Lab 8, Green 3
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Post by Right Leaning on Mar 15, 2018 7:52:04 GMT
Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck Ward: Ind 34, Con 32, Lab 23, LD 11,
South Kesteven DC, Stamford St George's: Con 34 Ind 32, LD 21, Lab 11, Green 2
South Kesteven DC, Stamford St John's Ward: Con 45, LD 30, Ind 15, Lab 7, Green 3
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Post by olympian95 on Mar 15, 2018 8:15:23 GMT
Redcar: Ind 39, Con 31, LD 16, Lab 14
Kesteven St Johns; LD 39, Con 36, Ind 13, Lab 8, Green 4
Kesteven, St Georges: Con 44, Ind 30, Lab 16, LD 7, Green 3
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
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Post by ricmk on Mar 15, 2018 8:23:41 GMT
Tricky, tricky. Let's try:
REDCAR AND CLEVELAND: Con 40 Ind 28 Lab 17 LD 15
SOUTH KESTEVEN St George's: Con 41 Ind 30 Lab 16, LD 9, GP 4
SOUTH KESTEVEN St John's: LD 37 Con 33 Ind 16 Lab 11 Green 3
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Post by hempie on Mar 15, 2018 8:31:53 GMT
Redcar and Cleveland, Longbeck: Ind 37, Lab 33, Con 20, LD 10
South Kesteven, Stamford St George's: Con 38, Ind 29, LD 17, Lab 14,Green 2
South Kesteven, Stamford St John's Ward: LD 42, Con 35, Ind 10, Lab 10, Green 3
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2018 8:33:06 GMT
REDCAR AND CLEVELAND Longbeck: Ind 10, Lab 42, C 43, L Dem 5
SOUTH KESTEVEN Stamford St George's: Ind 7, C 53, Lab 29, L Dem 7, GP 4
SOUTH KESTEVEN Stamford St John's Ward: C 69, L Dem 5, Ind 1, Lab 22, GP 3
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 15, 2018 9:10:15 GMT
I cannot remember a week as full of uncertainties as this one, and the predictions are all over the shop as a result. About the only thing we are agreed on is that the Greens won't win either Stamford seats,and apart from that anything goes! From a Lib Dem perspective I wasn't getting my hopes up about any of these, though thought we would do respectably in St Johns- yet I see there is at least one prediction of a Lib Dem victory in each of the contests and 4/15 for a Lib Dem win in St Johns- better than I would have dared hazard. The one I find most intriguing is Longbeck, and particularly the intervention of the Independent there given his past history. If he does well who does he take votes off is the tantalising question.
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 15, 2018 9:41:32 GMT
I agree, not 'with Nick', but with yellow peril ...
As I said after last week, there is still scope for big changes on the leaderboard.
In Stamford, I wonder how many people took into account the results in the two Stamford county council divisions in May 2017, when the Conservatives did so well, especially in West (which includes St John's). But the independent Carroll, who only got 12%, has switched to the other side of town, as has one of the Lib Dem candidates, back to a ward he once represented.
Meanwhile in Redcar, Vic Jeffries may possibly get a 'sympathy vote' as the carer for the departing Independent, perhaps especially given the sad and ironic coincidence of the death yesterday of Stephen Hawking, who suffered from the same disease. This led to a row about Mr Jeffries, an ex-Labour and presumably deselected councillor, still appearing at council meetings.
And the Labour candidate is just 18 years old. Full of interest for the results!
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
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Post by ricmk on Mar 15, 2018 10:04:10 GMT
I agree, not 'with Nick', but with yellow peril ... As I said after last week, there is still scope for big changes on the leaderboard. In Stamford, I wonder how many people took into account the results in the two Stamford county council divisions in May 2017, when the Conservatives did so well, especially in West (which includes St John's). But the independent Carroll, who only got 12%, has switched to the other side of town, as has one of the Lib Dem candidates, back to a ward he once represented. Meanwhile in Redcar, Vic Jeffries may possibly get a 'sympathy vote' as the carer for the departing Independent, perhaps especially given the sad and ironic coincidence of the death yesterday of Stephen Hawking, who suffered from the same disease. This led to a row about Mr Jeffries, an ex-Labour and presumably deselected councillor, still appearing at council meetings. And the Labour candidate is just 18 years old. Full of interest for the results! Interesting to talk it through once predictions are in but before we have the results. We all agreed last week....and were all wrong in several cases. I fancy the Lib Dems to win Stamford St Johns as the record of previous councillors re-standing in wards lost in the coalition is very good, and they have been taking it seriously with St John's listed first: southlincslibdems.org.uk/en/event/month The Tories in comparison seem more fussed about having dinner with David Davis: www.granthamstamfordconservatives.co.uk/ There is only one by-election listed, nothing about it if you click on the story. Redcar is simply a large, 3 councillor ward, and I think the scale will make an independent challenge difficult. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 15, 2018 19:44:48 GMT
I really enjoyed following AJS' spreadsheet last week, so have done something similar for this week - available at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NxTi-kfAOruC5sS48IG7wmEU_ZL-_HmFLp4rylPotY4/edit?usp=sharingStats for this week minus faults which I'll leave to ME (provisional sums are in spreadsheet which says K9 gets 2 for adding to 98 in St George's, aside from that everyone looks good): Longbeck, Redcar and Cleveland: 8 Independent hold, ricmk, AJS and priceofdawn Conservative gain; lancastrian, myself and dibs Labour gain and K9 LD gain. Quite the marginal! St George's, South Kesteven: 12 Conservative hold; lancastrian Labour gain; myself LD gain and David Boothroyd Independent gain. St John's, South Kesteven: 11 Conservative hold; andrewp, ricmk, olympian95 and hempie LD gain Good luck everyone and feel free to give me a shout on any corrections! |
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Post by samdwebber on Mar 15, 2018 21:53:09 GMT
Minutes away from 10pm close of poll; please do have a glance at this week's PoliticsHome predictions and retweet if you can too:
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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 16, 2018 0:24:15 GMT
Greenrobinhood leading for the week so far, with AJS in second and Robert Waller in third. I took the lowest score in St John's with Olympian scoring least in St George's.
Approx 66 faults (!) separating 2nd from 14th...
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 16, 2018 0:59:34 GMT
Greenrobinhood leading for the week so far, with AJS in second and Robert Waller in third. I took the lowest score in St John's with Olympian scoring least in St George's. Approx 66 faults (!) separating 2nd from 14th... Thanks for taking the time to do this tonight. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 16, 2018 1:49:10 GMT
Greenrobinhood leading for the week so far, with AJS in second and Robert Waller in third. I took the lowest score in St John's with Olympian scoring least in St George's. Approx 66 faults (!) separating 2nd from 14th... Thanks for taking the time to do this tonight. It's been even more fun doing it than watching in all honesty. Allowed for some spreadsheet geekery! |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 16, 2018 5:21:36 GMT
Thanks for taking the time to do this tonight. It's been even more fun doing it than watching in all honesty. Allowed for some spreadsheet geekery! Well done. We are moving closer to my ideal of a Prediction Competition collective and I'm sure that's the future. Maybe we can reduce middleenglander's workload and just leave him to be the ultimate authority. |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 16, 2018 10:26:54 GMT
While we wait for Redcar & Cleveland, a couple of further thoughts on Stamford:
1. Its remarkable how though our predictions are all over the place, it all evens out in the end and indeed how many people did brilliantly on one Stamford result and then were way out on the other- we rather expected the two wards to behave quite differently and in fact they were quite similar.
2. Quite a Tory revival in Stamford compared with last week. Does anyone think there was a Salisbury effect? Are the Russians impacting on our elections in a quite unforseen way?
edit:the Redcar result came in while I was posting this and provides more evidence that that might be right?
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