Prediction Competition - March 2018

[middleenglander]

Mar 9, 2018 0:35:12 GMT Andrew_S said:

Mar 9, 2018 0:33:06 GMT Robert Waller said:

Thanks, AJS.
For the month I then have Olympian and David Boothroyd very close for sixth, and for eighth almost a tie between k9, Hempie, Robbie and Greenrobinhood ...?

Yes. This is my full list for the month.

1 robertwaller 307.6
2 andrewp 363.4
3 ricmk 378.9
4 Right Leaning 386.7
5 lancastrian 388.3
6 olympian95 401.7
7 David Boothroyd 402.8
8 robbienicoll 412.8
9 greenrobinhood 416.0
10 k9 417.5
11 hempie 417.9
12 AJS 426.3
13 dibs 430.7
14 yellowperil 439.2
15 priceofdawn 494.7

I provisionally agree apart from some decimal points but will post fully in the morning

[yellowperil]

I have done my usual week 2 performance: In Jan top after week 1, nearly last after week 2, In Feb, 3rd on week 1, nearly last after week 2 , March 5th in week 1, nearly last after week 2. Never mind, the predictions were crap but quite pleased with the actual results, which is more important.

[Andrew_S]

Mar 9, 2018 2:06:27 GMT yellowperil said:

I have done my usual week 2 performance: In Jan top after week 1, nearly last after week 2, In Feb, 3rd on week 1, nearly last after week 2 , March 5th in week 1, nearly last after week 2. Never mind, the predictions were crap but quite pleased with the actual results, which is more important.

Yep, everyone in the competition got the winner wrong in 4 out of 8 contests. Is that a record for terrible forecasting?


Winners in each contest:

Bolton: robertwaller: 26.3 + 10 = 36.3 faults
Dacorum: robertwaller: 48.3 + 10 = 58.3 faults
East Hants: lancastrian: 25.1 + 10 = 35.1 faults
Harlow: robbienicoll: 5.5 faults
Medway: olympian95: 29.1 + 10 = 39.1 faults
Nottingham: priceofdawn: 2.4 faults
Rutland: robertwaller: 1.0 faults
Tameside: greenrobinhood: 5.2 faults

[yellowperil]

Mar 9, 2018 2:31:26 GMT Andrew_S said:

Mar 9, 2018 2:06:27 GMT yellowperil said:

Yep, everyone in the competition got the winner wrong in 4 out of 8 contests. Is that a record for terrible forecasting?

If it's any consolation, Politicshome also got 4 wrong out of 8 - I can forgive them that- after all,   I managed 6/8 wrong-  but can't forgive them that comment about Rutland being literally a two horse race.

[hempie]

I regret not going with my gut feeling on Northchurch which was for an LD win. Dacorum Tories are getting a lot of negative press coverage at present over a number of issues (selling off of the sports & leisure provision to a private company, very unpopular planning schemes for new developments in Hemel, Berkhamsted & Tring, awful car park development in Berkhamsted). The LD's have largely led the campaigns against all three and getting good press and social media coverage. Added to this was the fact that the former councillor was very popular in Northchurch and by all accounts a hard working councillor. The Tories were also not helped by the fact that they chose a candidate from Tring to stand in the seat.
I knew the Green candidate was paper only and he was from Berkhamsted not Northchurch - very important there - so would get very few votes. The Labour candidate did campaign and was very active on social media on issues such as air pollution (which was and is an issue at the Berkhamsted end of the ward). Looks like his potential vote drained away to the Lib Dem to beat the Tory.

[ricmk]

Mar 9, 2018 9:02:24 GMT hempie said:

I regret not going with my gut feeling on Northchurch which was for an LD win. Dacorum Tories are getting a lot of negative press coverage at present over a number of issues (selling off of the sports & leisure provision to a private company, very unpopular planning schemes for new developments in Hemel, Berkhamsted & Tring, awful car park development in Berkhamsted). The LD's have largely led the campaigns against all three and getting good press and social media coverage. Added to this was the fact that the former councillor was very popular in Northchurch and by all accounts a hard working councillor. The Tories were also not helped by the fact that they chose a candidate from Tring to stand in the seat.
I knew the Green candidate was paper only and he was from Berkhamsted not Northchurch - very important there - so would get very few votes. The Labour candidate did campaign and was very active on social media on issues such as air pollution (which was and is an issue at the Berkhamsted end of the ward). Looks like his potential vote drained away to the Lib Dem to beat the Tory.

That's really interesting.  Always worth looking back on a week where lots of us got wrong winners to ask if we should have seen the signs?

For example, with hindsight I can see where the result in Bolton and East Hants came from, but can't with Medway, even now.
Northchurch was another one I did wonder how active the LD campaign was but couldn't find anything - so the info you've provided above is good context as it would have been another head-scratcher otherwise.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 9, 2018 9:02:24 GMT hempie said:

I regret not going with my gut feeling on Northchurch which was for an LD win. Dacorum Tories are getting a lot of negative press coverage at present over a number of issues (selling off of the sports & leisure provision to a private company, very unpopular planning schemes for new developments in Hemel, Berkhamsted & Tring, awful car park development in Berkhamsted). The LD's have largely led the campaigns against all three and getting good press and social media coverage. Added to this was the fact that the former councillor was very popular in Northchurch and by all accounts a hard working councillor. The Tories were also not helped by the fact that they chose a candidate from Tring to stand in the seat.
I knew the Green candidate was paper only and he was from Berkhamsted not Northchurch - very important there - so would get very few votes. The Labour candidate did campaign and was very active on social media on issues such as air pollution (which was and is an issue at the Berkhamsted end of the ward). Looks like his potential vote drained away to the Lib Dem to beat the Tory.

I didn't know about these specific issues but was not surprised that the Lib Dems gained the seat given their strength in both Berkhamsted and in Tring and the kind of campaigning resources they can draw on from nearby areas in Three Rivers etc. I also rem,ember them easily winning the Aldbury & wigginton by-election a few years back - neighbouring ward, similar demographics. I am shocked by the scale of their victory though.
Rochester West is a more concerning result altogether..

[middleenglander]

For week 2:

Authority	Bolton	Dacorum	East Hampshire	Harlow	Medway	Nottingham	Rutland	Tameside
Ward	Farnworth	Northchurch	Petersfield     Bell Hill	Little Parndon  & Hare Street	Rochester     West	Wollaton West	Oakham    South East	Droylesden    East
ajs	74.3+10	86.3+10	40.4+10	25.2	32.8+10	16.4	17.0	9.2
andrewp	46.3+10	58.3+10	29.7+10	6.5	29.5+10	13.6+10	15.0	9.2
David Boothroyd	57.0+10	72.3+10	36.9+10	16.5	36.4+10	16.2+10	3.0	6.2
dibs	62.3+10	49.4+10	42.3+10	23.2	31.7+10	16.4+10	9.0	39.2
greenrobinhood	64.3+10	68.3+10	55.7+10	8.5	40.8+10	12.4	25.0+10	5.2
hempie	64.3+10	56.5+10	44.3+10	15.2	33.5+10	26.4+10	15.0	11.2
k9	64.3+10	70.3+10	28.4+10	9.2	37.3+10	20.4+10	17.0	8.3
Lancastrian	61.0+10	66.3+10	25.1+10	13.2	31.1+10	24.4	7.0	11.2
Olympian95	47.0+10	56.3+10	54.3+10	18.5	29.1+10	13.0	15.0	9.2
priceofdawn	69.0+10	94.3+10	84.4+10	16.5	33.5+10	2.4	37.0+10	10.2+1
ricmk	46.3+10	58.3+10	36.9+10	17.2	31.7+10	10.4	29.0+10	11.2
Right Leaning	51.0+10	60.3+10	32.9+10	8.5	44.8+10	18.4+10	13.0	10.3
robbienicoll	56.3+10	62.3+10	33.7+10	5.5	29.5+10	15.6+10	9.0	10.3
Robert Waller	26.3+10	48.3+10	28.9+10	17.2	33.5+10	11.6+10	1.0	8.2
Yellow Peril	64.3+10	72.3+10	46.4+10	11.2	35.5+10	24.4+10	21.0+10	9.2
Total faults	853.6+150	980.4+150	620.3+150	212.0	510.6+150	242.1+90	233.6+40	168.6+1

and for the month to date:

	Week 1	Week 2	Week 2	Weeks 1 & 2	Weeks 1 & 2
	faults	faults	position	faults	position
ajs	84.6	341.7	13th	426.3	12th
andrewp	105.3	258.1	2nd	363.5	2nd
David Boothroyd	108.3	294.5	8th	402.8	7th
dibs	107.1	323.6	11th	430.7	13th
greenrobinhood	85.7	330.3	12th	416.0	9th
hempie	101.4	316.5	10th	417.9	11th
k9	112.3	305.2	9th	417.5	10th
Lancastrian	108.8	279.5	4th	388.2	5th
Olympian95	119.2	282.5	5th	401.7	6th
priceofdawn	96.4	398.3	15th	494.7	15th
ricmk	87.8	291.1	7th	378.9	3rd
Right Leaning	97.5	289.2	6th	386.7	4th
robbienicoll	140.5	272.3	3rd	412.9	8th
Robert Waller	82.6	225.0	1st	307.6	1st
Yellow Peril	94.8	344.4	14th	439.2	14th
Total	1,532.3	4,552,3		6,084.6

Objections please by noon Sunday.
There are 3 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
We are having a couple of days break next week but should be back Friday afternoon.  However the competition appears to be running itself now!!

[Deleted]

Mar 9, 2018 9:59:53 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Mar 9, 2018 9:02:24 GMT hempie said:

I regret not going with my gut feeling on Northchurch which was for an LD win. Dacorum Tories are getting a lot of negative press coverage at present over a number of issues (selling off of the sports & leisure provision to a private company, very unpopular planning schemes for new developments in Hemel, Berkhamsted & Tring, awful car park development in Berkhamsted). The LD's have largely led the campaigns against all three and getting good press and social media coverage. Added to this was the fact that the former councillor was very popular in Northchurch and by all accounts a hard working councillor. The Tories were also not helped by the fact that they chose a candidate from Tring to stand in the seat.
I knew the Green candidate was paper only and he was from Berkhamsted not Northchurch - very important there - so would get very few votes. The Labour candidate did campaign and was very active on social media on issues such as air pollution (which was and is an issue at the Berkhamsted end of the ward). Looks like his potential vote drained away to the Lib Dem to beat the Tory.

I didn't know about these specific issues but was not surprised that the Lib Dems gained the seat given their strength in both Berkhamsted and in Tring and the kind of campaigning resources they can draw on from nearby areas in Three Rivers etc. I also rem,ember them easily winning the Aldbury & wigginton by-election a few years back - neighbouring ward, similar demographics. I am shocked by the scale of their victory though.
Rochester West is a more concerning result altogether..

I had the Medway a Labour gain but edited it after i posted it. Fool.

I see your point about the Lib Dem strength in West Herts partuculatly Abbotts Langley.

Which leisure facilities is that then? I know Leisure World between Adeyfield and Bennetts End has had a massive refurb. It's not like it was.

[hempie]

The leisure facilities are all the community sports places in the borough formerly run by Sportspace (including the central Hemel swimming pool and gym and the facilities attached to Longdean school). The local paper has run a number of articles criticising the council over the decision. Part of the issue is the lack of transparency in decision making in the council. There seems to be a growing feeling that the council cabinet are ignoring local opposition on this (and other issues)because of the massive majority their party has on the council. Possibly some massive losses on the cards in May 2019 for the Conservatives.

[Deleted]

That's a reality in a lot of places we have Leisure Management Limited who I had the pleasure of meeting at an inquest. The most unsuitable, unscrupulous company to run a leisure facility for people.

Incidentally my sister was a teacher at Longdean.

I suspect May 2019 might be very bad for the Tories.

[hempie]

I wonder if your sister taught my 2 daughters who went to Longdean. What did she teach?
Interesting school in that Paul Boateng is a former pupil of its forerunner (Apsley Grammar school)and Chris Bryant's brother was the head for several years.

[Deleted]

Mar 9, 2018 13:25:53 GMT hempie said:

I wonder if your sister taught my 2 daughters who went to Longdean. What did she teach?
Interesting school in that Paul Boateng is a former pupil of its forerunner (Apsley Grammar school)and Chris Bryant's brother was the head for several years.

she taught English and BTEC Drama. This was a few years ago. If I were to guess I'd say maybe 2009/10-2010/11

[hempie]

Both the girls were there then so possibly English (neither studied drama) - small world indeed.

[andrewp]

I very nearly went for an Independent win in Petersfield as he is the mayor, and the possibility/ likelihood of a lowish share of the vote winning, but I bottled it, that will teach me!

[dibs]

Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck Ward: Lab 31, Ind 29 Con 25 LibDem 15

South Kesteven DC, Stamford St George's: Con 32 Lab 25 LibDem 21 Ind 20 Green 2

South Kesteven DC, Stamford St John's Ward: Con 30 Ind 26 Lab 24 LibDem 17 Green 3

[Andrew_S]

Redcar & Cleveland, Longbeck:

Con 31
Lab 30
Ind 26
LD 13


South Kesteven, Stamford St George's:

Con 35
Ind 31
Lab 23
Green 6
LD 5


South Kesteven, Stamford St John's:

Con 41
Ind 34
Lab 17
Green 4
LD 4

[Robert Waller]

Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck Ward: Lab 27, Ind 33 Con 32 LibDem 8

South Kesteven DC, Stamford St George's: Con 36 Lab 18 LibDem 23 Ind 20 Green 3

South Kesteven DC, Stamford St John's Ward: Con 45 Ind 15 Lab 12 LibDem 25 Green 3

[greenhert]

Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck: Independent (Jeffries) 34, Conservative 32, Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 9.
South Kesteven DC, Stamford St George's: Conservative 36, Independent (Johnson) 32, Labour 22, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 5.
South Kesteven DC, Stamford St John's: Conservative 42, Independent (Carroll) 35, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 4, Green 3.

[lancastrian]

Redcar: Lab 30 Ind 27 LD 22 Con 21
South Kesteven (St George): Lab 32 Con 28 LD 21 Ind 14 Green 5
South Kesteven (St John): Con 36 LD 30 Lab 15 Ind 15 Green 4