tricky
Lib Dem
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Post by tricky on Jun 17, 2012 10:36:02 GMT
There is an argument that some kind of mega crisis moment may be what is needed to remove heads from arses and cause people (governments) to do the necessary. A Syriza win would probably count as such a crisis. It would be an interesting trip through the looking glass that could lead to economic catastrophe but could also lead to governments coming to grips with what is really financially possible. It would take a brave politician to assume that the second option is more likely. Still they were only pretty sure that the first nuclear reaction wouldn't set fire to the atmosphere and that worked out ok. Quite possible. It is also possible that Merkel thinks a Greek exit would be in the interests of Germany and maybe the Euro zone as a whole. That's certainly what I think personally. Unlike AC et al I believe it would be an utter catastrophe for Greece, particularly in the short term. The markets tomorrow are going to be interesting in the event of either Syriza victory (possible) or an inconclusive result (very likely).
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 17, 2012 11:04:43 GMT
Quite possible. It is also possible that Merkel thinks a Greek exit would be in the interests of Germany and maybe the Euro zone as a whole. That's certainly what I think personally. Unlike AC et al I believe it would be an utter catastrophe for Greece, particularly in the short term. The markets tomorrow are going to be interesting in the event of either Syriza victory (possible) or an inconclusive result (very likely). Short term I think it would be very, very painful for Greece but long term it could give them hope. Sadly they are in a quite dreadful situation and whatever they do it is going to be terrible and I honestly don't know what their best option is. I think we all realise they should never have joined the Euro but I would add that they could have left it two years ago without the consequences being as catastrophic as it would be now.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jun 17, 2012 11:07:13 GMT
It will be more that short term and very very painful, it will be catastrophic. The economy will take decades to recover and it will had power to the neofascists.
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tricky
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Post by tricky on Jun 17, 2012 13:59:17 GMT
I think we all realise they should never have joined the Euro but I would add that they could have left it two years ago without the consequences being as catastrophic as it would be now. You are forgetting my rules based approach. They should never have been allowed to join the Euro. I don't hold with a lot of the EU identity bullshit that seems to pop out of the fluffier directorates from time to time. The EU is a set of rules that make trade, travel and social justice easier to achieve. It can only work if the rules are followed. We get more done working as 27 nations with one voice than 27 smaller voices but that means everyone honouring their commitments.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 17, 2012 14:03:58 GMT
I think we all realise they should never have joined the Euro but I would add that they could have left it two years ago without the consequences being as catastrophic as it would be now. You are forgetting my rules based approach. They should never have been allowed to join the Euro. I don't hold with a lot of the EU identity bullshit that seems to pop out of the fluffier directorates from time to time. The EU is a set of rules that make trade, travel and social justice easier to achieve. It can only work if the rules are followed. We get more done working as 27 nations with one voice than 27 smaller voices but that means everyone honouring their commitments. Well indeed. Unfortunately the EU is driven by ideologues and not pragmatists. Thus Greece got to join the Euro even though everyone knew that they had cooked the books. It has proven bad for them and bad for everyone else.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
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Post by Pimpernal on Jun 17, 2012 15:41:58 GMT
I think we all realise they should never have joined the Euro but I would add that they could have left it two years ago without the consequences being as catastrophic as it would be now. You are forgetting my rules based approach. But the EU isn't very good at enforcing its own rules when it seems handy to ignore them...
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 17, 2012 15:46:25 GMT
I'm hearing that the early exits were
ND 29, Syriza 27, Pasok 12, DL 6, Nazis 6
but we will know for sure in about 20 mins
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tricky
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Post by tricky on Jun 17, 2012 15:53:22 GMT
You are forgetting my rules based approach. But the EU isn't very good at enforcing its own rules when it seems handy to ignore them... Correct. It isn't. It needs to get a lot better at it. Or rather its members do as it is generally the Council of Ministers that comes through with the let offs.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 17, 2012 16:02:49 GMT
First Exit from Star Channel:
ND 27-30, SYRIZA 26-29, PASOK 10-12, Ind Greeks 6-8, Golden Dawn 6-8, Dem Left 6-7, KKE 5-6
and from MEGA TV
ND 27.5-30.5, SYRIZA 27-30, PASOK 10-12, Ind Gr 6-7.5, Golden Dawn 6-7.5, Dem Left 5.5-6.5, KKE 5-6
and from SKAI TV (not an exit but an opinion poll)
SYRIZA 28, ND 27.5, PASOK 13, Dem Left 7.5, Ind Greeks 7.5, GD 5.5, KKE 5.5
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tricky
Lib Dem
Building a stronger economy and a fairer society so everyone can get on in life
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Post by tricky on Jun 17, 2012 16:11:25 GMT
So it will take a while before we know who gets the Brucie.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 17, 2012 16:17:49 GMT
So it will take a while before we know who gets the Brucie. I never did hear if Syriza had been declared a "solid party" so they could be eligible for the Brucie or not. Second round of exits in about an hour or so, which will include the late voters where I've seen some reports that there was a bit of a rush at that point. Turnout is about 65%, lower than last time around.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Jun 17, 2012 16:38:04 GMT
doen't the brucie apply only when a governing coalition can be found?
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 17, 2012 16:45:46 GMT
doen't the brucie apply only when a governing coalition can be found? Interesting question, I don't know. Nohlen and Stöver is a bit hazy on it put suggests not. However, it does only apply to a "solid party", which is why Syriza were trying to change their designation.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 17, 2012 16:45:52 GMT
I think the Brucie is automatic and plays a part in the numbers in negotiations. Last time New Democracy seemed to have it in all circumstances.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2012 16:47:03 GMT
even with the bonus, the only way for a stable govt is for the two old parties to join up, will they ?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2012 16:55:36 GMT
Paul Mason
Very small % of real votes: Greater Athens = Syriza 32.5% up from 21% in May
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2012 17:04:28 GMT
BBC
Remember early Greek exit polls are skewed towards rural areas. Second polls could contain more Syriza voters - BBC's @matthewwprice #Greece
I will be updating as I see news during the night whilst watching the sport !!
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 17, 2012 17:07:38 GMT
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Richard Allen
Banned
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 17, 2012 17:09:59 GMT
even with the bonus, the only way for a stable govt is for the two old parties to join up, will they ? They will if they have the numbers but by the looks of it either ND or Syriza will have around 125 seats. Which ever one of them manages it will have a decent shout of cobbling together some sort of government.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2012 17:14:54 GMT
where do you see that ? It does appear GD have not suffered at all from the bad publicty they have had which is no real surprise, it is what those who voted for them wanted.
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