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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 24, 2012 10:40:11 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on May 24, 2012 17:08:50 GMT
I think I may have underestimated the Independent share in my prediction (which is 15%). I didn't spend much time researching how popular or otherwise he is locally.
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Post by Robert Waller on May 24, 2012 18:46:19 GMT
Think I may have underestimated Labour; Cope got 31% in Wharrels in 2011 and Labour got 34.5% in Aspatria.
Was assuming a squeeze in a C - Ind contest but Tony may be right, it may be a real 3-way marginal.
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Post by middleenglander on May 24, 2012 23:28:05 GMT
14 entries this week, with David Boothroyd getting 30 additional points for beIng 4 minutes late with his entry and 3 additional points for totalling 103% in Newcastle-under-Lyme. Safc26 get 1 additional point for totalling 99% also in Newcastle-under-Lyme. Argyll & Bute: Tonyotim 18.9 faults, PhilDav76 19.3, andyajs 19.7, Dibs & Robert Waller 22.5, Mark Senior 17.7+5, LeicesterLad 23.5 Safc26 23.7, greatkingrat 16.5+10, Pete Whitehead 17.1+10, Khunanup 22.7+10, erlend 23.7+10, hempie 24.7+10, David Boothroyd 28.5+10+10 Newcastle-under-Lyme: hempie 2.0 faults, greatkingrat 2.2, LeicesterLad 2.6, Robert Waller 4.0, PhilDav76 4.2, andyajs 8.6, Khunanup 9.4, Safc26 9.6+1, Mark Senior 10.0, Pete Whitehead 14.8, Dibs 16.2, tonyotim 19.2, erlend 22.6, David Boothroyd 32.8+3+10 South Oxfordshire: Dibs 3.4, andyajs & greatkingrat 6.6, Khunanup & Safc26 8.6, hempie 9.9, Pete Whitehead 14.6, erlend 17.4, David Boothroyd 11.4+10, Robert Waller 15.6+10, LeicesterLad, 16.6+10, tonyotim 17.0+10, PhilDav76 & Mark Senior 22.6+10 First week total: andyajs 34.9 faults, greatkingrat 35.4, Dibs 42.1, Safc26 42.9, hempie 46.6, Khunanup 50.7, Robert Waller 52.1, LeicesterLad 52.7, PhillDav76 56.2, Pete Whitehead 56.5, tonyotim 65.2, Mark Senior 65.3, erlend 73.7, David Boothroyd 115.7 including 30 for late entry. Objections please by 10.00am Sunday. No by-elections next week Predictions for 1 by-election by 9.00am Thursday 24th May. Cumbria: Safc26 12.9 faults, David Boothroyd 13.3, hempie 16.2, Leicester Lad 16.7, PhilDav76 18.2, greatkingrat 24.7, andyajs 28.1 Robert Waller 30.7, Tonyotim 21.6+10, Pete Whitehead 22.1+10, Dibs 33.3, Mark Senior 26.6+10, erlend 41.2, Khunanup 100 And month to date: Safc26 55.8 faults, greatkingrat 60.1, hempie 62.8, andyajs 63.0, LeicesterLad 69.5, PhilDav76 74.3, Dibs 75.5 Robert Waller 82.8, Pete Whitehead 88.6, Tonyotim 96.8, Mark Senior 101.9, erlend 114.8, David Boothroyd 129.0, Khunanup 150.7. Objections please by 10.00 am Saturday. 5 contest next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday 31st May. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 24, 2012 23:36:10 GMT
I was convinced this would be a morning count!
Congratulations to Safc26 on both winning this week and being ahead overall this month so far.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2012 14:07:46 GMT
I was convinced this would be a morning count! Congratulations to Safc26 on both winning this week and being ahead overall this month so far. Thanks. This is looking like a good debut so far! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2012 14:20:13 GMT
Rather gutted though that 11.2 of my 12.9 faults were from messing up the ld and green votes!
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Post by Robert Waller on May 30, 2012 11:30:29 GMT
BARNET - Brunswick Park (Conservative died) Andreas IOANNIDIS (The Labour Party Candidate) 39.0% Yahaya KIINGI (Liberal Democrats) 12.0% Shaheen MAHMOOD (Conservative Party Candidate) 49.0% BOURNEMOUTH - Redhill & Northbourne (Conservative resigned) Nicholas ATKINSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5.0 Steve BARTLETT (Independent) - nomination withdrawn David D'ORTON-GIBSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 31.0 Paul GRAHAM (Independent) 3.0 Sandra HALE (Green Party) 3.0 Jo KENNEDY (The Labour Party Candidate) 23.0 Pat LEWIS (Liberal Democrats) 27.0 Claire SMITH (Independent) 3.0 Colin SMITH (British National Party) 2.0 Peter WOODLEY (Independent) 3.0 COTSWOLD - Fosseridge (Conservative resigned) Julian BEALE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 60.0 Danny LOVERIDGE (Liberal Democrats) 20.0 Chris TURNER (Independent) 20.0 EASTBOURNE - Meads (Conservative resigned) Caroline ANSELL (The Conservative Party Candidate) 50.0 Ian CAMERON (UK Independence Party) 8.0 Keith GELL (Independent) 4.0 Dennis SCARD (The Labour Party Candidate) 10.0 Gerard THOMPSON (Liberal Democrats) 28.0 NORTH LINCOLNSHIRE - Town (Labour died) Haque KATARIA (The Labour Party Candidate) 59.0 Abdul WADUD (The Conservative Party Candidate) 33.0 Douglas WARD (British National Party) 8.0 Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=byelection&action=display&thread=473#ixzz1wLqbYStP |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2012 22:40:48 GMT
BARNET - Brunswick Park
Andreas IOANNIDIS (The Labour Party Candidate) 42%
Yahaya KIINGI (Liberal Democrats) 15%
Shaheen MAHMOOD (Conservative Party Candidate) 44%
BOURNEMOUTH - Redhill & Northbourne
Nicholas ATKINSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 6
David D'ORTON-GIBSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 25
Paul GRAHAM (Independent) 6
Sandra HALE (Green Party) 4
Jo KENNEDY (The Labour Party Candidate) 22
Pat LEWIS (Liberal Democrats) 20
Claire SMITH (Independent) 10
Colin SMITH (British National Party) 3
Peter WOODLEY (Independent) 4
COTSWOLD - Fosseridge (Conservative resigned)
Julian BEALE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 68
Danny LOVERIDGE (Liberal Democrats) 17
Chris TURNER (Independent) 15
EASTBOURNE - Meads (Conservative resigned)
Caroline ANSELL (The Conservative Party Candidate) 45
Ian CAMERON (UK Independence Party) 15
Keith GELL (Independent) 8
Dennis SCARD (The Labour Party Candidate) 12
Gerard THOMPSON (Liberal Democrats) 20
NORTH LINCOLNSHIRE - Town (Labour died)
Haque KATARIA (The Labour Party Candidate) 55
Abdul WADUD (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30
Douglas WARD (British National Party) 15
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dibs
Non-Aligned
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Post by dibs on May 30, 2012 22:45:04 GMT
BARNET - Brunswick Park
CON 44 LAB 34 LD 22
BOURNEMOUTH - Redhill & Northbourne
CON 24 LD 19 UKIP 9 LAB 10 GREEN 6 BNP 5 GRAHAM 10 SMITH 9 WOODLEY 8
COTSWOLD - Fosseridge
CON 54 LD 29 INDEP 17
EASTBOURNE - Meads
CON 48 LD 20 LAB 19 UKIP 8 INDEP 5
NORTH LINCOLNSHIRE - Town
LAB 52 CON 31 BNP 17
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 30, 2012 23:12:00 GMT
BARNET Brunswick Park: C 52.8, Lab 35.5, L Dem 11.7
BOURNEMOUTH Redhill and Northbourne: C 33.5, L Dem 23.9, Lab 19.0, UKIP 8.0, Ind Woodley 5.7, Ind Smith 4.6, GP 3.0, BNP 1.3, Ind Graham 1.0
COTSWOLD Fosseridge: C 73.1, L Dem 21.4, Ind 5.5
EASTBOURNE Meads: C 45.4, L Dem 25.8, UKIP 14.0, Lab 12.7, Ind 2.1
NORTH LINCOLNSHIRE Town: Lab 52.3, C 42.3, BNP 5.4
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Post by leicesterlad on May 31, 2012 0:08:07 GMT
BARNET - Brunswick Park
Andreas IOANNIDIS (The Labour Party Candidate) 42%
Yahaya KIINGI (Liberal Democrats) 15%
Shaheen MAHMOOD (Conservative Party Candidate) 43%
BOURNEMOUTH - Redhill & Northbourne
Nicholas ATKINSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5
David D'ORTON-GIBSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 26.5
Paul GRAHAM (Independent) 3
Sandra HALE (Green Party) 5
Jo KENNEDY (The Labour Party Candidate) 24.5
Pat LEWIS (Liberal Democrats) 19
Claire SMITH (Independent) 10
Colin SMITH (British National Party) 3
Peter WOODLEY (Independent) 4
COTSWOLD - Fosseridge (Conservative resigned)
Julian BEALE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 66
Danny LOVERIDGE (Liberal Democrats) 18
Chris TURNER (Independent) 16
EASTBOURNE - Meads (Conservative resigned)
Caroline ANSELL (The Conservative Party Candidate) 44
Ian CAMERON (UK Independence Party) 16
Keith GELL (Independent) 10
Dennis SCARD (The Labour Party Candidate) 12
Gerard THOMPSON (Liberal Democrats) 18
NORTH LINCOLNSHIRE - Town (Labour died)
Haque KATARIA (The Labour Party Candidate) 59
Abdul WADUD (The Conservative Party Candidate) 32
Douglas WARD (British National Party) 9
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Post by marksenior on May 31, 2012 5:45:10 GMT
My forecasts
Barnet Con 46 Lab 38 LD 16
Bournemouth Con 28 Lab 22 LD 21 UKIP 8 Green 4 BNP 2 Ind X 3 5 each
Cotswold Con 62 LD 25 Ind 13
Eastbourne Con 45 LD 23 Lab 14 UKIP 12 Ind 6
N Lincs Lab 59 Con 31 BNP 10
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Post by hempie on May 31, 2012 6:47:47 GMT
Barnet, Brunswick Park: Con 50, Lab 39, LD 11
Bournemouth,Redhill and Northbourne: Con 32, LD 29, Lab 17, UKIP 7, Ind Woodley 4, Green 4, BNP 3, Ind Smith 2, Ind Graham 2
Cotswold, Fosseridge: Con 72, LD 18, Ind 10
Eastbourne, Meads: Con 48, LD 20, UKIP 15, Lab 12. Ind 5
North Lincolnshire, Town: Lab 60, Con 32, BNP 8
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Post by greatkingrat on May 31, 2012 7:25:44 GMT
BARNET - Con 47, Lab 42, LD 12
BOURNEMOUTH - Con 31, LD 26, Lab 16, Ind(Smith) 9, UKIP 6, Grn 3, Ind(Woodley) 3, Ind(Graham) 3, BNP 3
COTSWOLD - Con 60, LD 30, Ind 10
EASTBOURNE - Con 50, LD 24, Lab 12, UKIP 9, Ind 5
NORTH LINCOLNSHIRE - Lab 55, Con 36, BNP 9
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on May 31, 2012 8:02:30 GMT
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Post by Philip Davies on May 31, 2012 8:08:36 GMT
Right off to see the Olympic Flame as it comes through Macclesfield.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2012 8:19:58 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on May 31, 2012 11:47:09 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on May 31, 2012 12:35:36 GMT
12 entries this week with nothing from erlend and khunanup.
Greatkingrat and Safc26 both get 1 additional point for adding to 101 in Barnet whilst PhilDav76 gets 0.2 additional points for adding to 99.8 in North Lincolnshire.
There is unanimity about Barnet, Cotswold, Eastbourne and North Lincolnshire where the defending party is predicted to hold, albeit narrowly in Barnet. In Bournemouth there are 10 Conservative holds with Tonyotim predicting a Labour gain and PhilDav76 a Lib Dem gain in a ward where they already have originally elected 2 Councillors.
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