Prediction competition for May.

[middleenglander]

Looks like 9 contests:

3 on May 10th
1 on May 24th
5 on May 31st

5 of the contests are for District Councils last contested in May 2011, 1 for a District Council where there was an election within the same ward last week and 2 in County Councils last contested in 2009.

The 9th contest is a delayed election following the death of a SNP candidate in the Dunoon ward of Argyll & Bute Council. In 2007 two Independents and one SNP were elected. In this contest, to be held on May 10th, the two Independents are again standing along with a Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and SNP. The prediction contest requires estimates for the first prefrence votes for each of the 6 candidates.

The Conservatives are defending 6 of the remaining contests, 2 due to the death of the sitting councillor and 4 following resignations. Labour are defending the other 2, one due to a death and the other following the disqualification of the sitting councillor who was elected as Labour but sitting as an Independent.

With nominations awaited for 2 of the contests, the Conservatives have candidates for all 6 of the remaining English by-elections, Labour 5, Lib Dems 4, Independents 4 and 1 each for BNP, Greens, UKIP and TUSAC.

I shall be away for several days and unable to supervise any competition until the weekend. If you want a prediction contest, I will pick up the entries when we return.

Predictions on this thread for the 3 contests on May 10th by 9.00am Thursday.

[Robert Waller]

Newcastle under Lyme – Kidsgrove
Lab 69
C 14
LD 10
TUSC 7

South Oxfordshire – Chinnor
Ind 40.6
C 40.5
Lab 18.9

Argyll and Bute –Dunoon – 1st prefs
Ind – Walsh 27
SNP 25
Ind – McQueen 23
Lab 18
C 5
LD 2

[Deleted]

Newcastle under Lyme – Kidsgrove
Lab 65
C 15
TUSC 10
LD 9

South Oxfordshire – Chinnor

C 45
Ind 41
Lab 14

Argyll and Bute –Dunoon – 1st prefs
Ind – Walsh 27.5
Ind – McQueen 24
SNP 21.5
Lab 14
C 8
LD 5

[dibs]

NEWCASTLE UNDER LYME - Kidsgrove
LAB 60 CON 20 LD 12 TUSC 8


SOUTH OXFORDSHIRE - Chinnor
CON 49 IND 35 LAB 16


ARGYLL AND BUTE - Dunoon 1st prefs
IND WALSH 26 SNP 24 IND MCQUEEN 20 LAB 19 CON 7 LD 4

[andrewteale]

I'll be sitting out the competition this month and will come back refreshed in June.

[erlend]

Newcastle under Lyme Lab 62, Con 18, TUSC14, LD6

S Oxfordshire Con 52 Ind 28, Lab 20

Argyll and Bute SNP 25, McQueen 24, Walshm 24, Lab 13, Con 7, LD 7

[leicesterlad]

Newcastle under Lyme – Kidsgrove
Lab 67
C 13
LD 11
TUSC 9

South Oxfordshire – Chinnor
Ind 42
C 40
Lab 18

Argyll and Bute –Dunoon – 1st prefs
Ind – Walsh 26.5
SNP 24
Ind – McQueen 22.5
Lab 18
C 6
LD 3

[greatkingrat]

SOUTH OXFORDSHIRE - Con 46, Ind 40, Lab 14
ARGYLL & BUTE - SNP 28, Walsh 25, McQueen 23, Lab 14, Con 6, LD 4
NEWCASTLE UNDER LYME - Lab 67, Con 13, LD 12, TUSC 8

[Philip Davies]

Newcastle-under-Lyme: Kidsgrove

Lab 66
Con 13
LD 12
TUSC 9

South Oxfordshire: Chinnor

Ind 48.0
Con 43.5
Lab 8.5

Argyll and Bute: Dunoon

Walsh 27.1
SNP 24.1
McQueen 23.2
Lab 13.7
C 7.1
LD 4.8

[Khunanup]

Mine this week.

Kidsgrove: Lab 71%, Lib Dem 13%, Con 10%, TUSC 6%
Chinnor: Con 45%, Ind 41%, Lab 14%
Dunoon: SNP 30%, Ind (W) 22%, Ind (M) 21%, Lab 12%, Lib Dem 8%, Con 7%

[marksenior]

Almost forgot

Kidsgrove Lab 64 LD 13 Con 12 TUSC 11
Chinoor Ind 41 Con 37 Lab 22
Dunoon Ind W 26 SNP 26 Ind M 20 Lab 16 LD 6 Con 6

[hempie]

Newcastle under Lyme, Kidsgrove: Lab 69 Con 13 LD 11 TUSC 7
South Oxfordshire,Chinnor Con 45 Ind 35 Lab 20
Argyll & Bute,Dunoon: Ind M 28 Ind W 27 SNP 22 Lab 12 LD 6 Con 5

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Newcastle under Lyme, Kidsgrove: Lab 57 C 28 L Dem 14 TUSC 4
South Oxfordshire, Chinnor: C 49 Ind 31 Lab 20
Argyll and Bute, Dunoon: McQueen 29 SNP 26 Walsh 21 Lab 14 C 6 L Dem 4

[Tony Otim]

Newcastle Under Lyme:
Lab 58.5; LD 18.5; Con 15.2; TUSC 7.8

South Oxfordshire:
Ind 40.1; Con 39.8; Lab 20.1

Argyll and Bute:
Ind Walsh 26.8
SNP 25.2
Ind mcqueen 23.1
Lab 13.4
Con 7.7
LD 3.8

[Pete Whitehead]

Newcastle uner Lyme - Kidsgrove

Lab 63.7%
LD 17.6%
Con 9.9%
TUSC 8.8%

South Oxfordshire - Chinoor

Con 41.0%
Ind 40.8%
Lab 18.2%

Argyll & Bute - Dunoon

SNP 27.4%
Walsh 26.3%
McQueen 23.7%
Lab 11.1%
Con 7.0%
LD 4.5%

[Pete Whitehead]

It is slightly intersting to note that all four of those who have predicted an SNP lead in Dunnon have predcited a Conservative win in Chinnor while all five who have predicted an Independent win in Chinnor have predicted that Walsh will win the first preferences in Dunoon (except Mark Senior who has Walsh and the SNP jointly in the lead)

[Andrew_S]

Newcastle under Lyme – Kidsgrove:
Lab 65
Con 17
LD 10
TUSC 8


South Oxfordshire – Chinnor:
Con 45
Ind (Wright) 40
Lab 15


Argyll and Bute – Dunoon:
Ind (Walsh) 26
SNP 25
Ind (McQueen) 22
Lab 16
Con 6
LD 5

[Tony Otim]

You had to go and ruin Pete's nice little pattern, didn't you

[Robert Waller]

Does it break the pattern Pete identified?

[Pete Whitehead]

It doesn't it just makes the link less strong, which was that there was a tendency for people to predict an Independent victory either in both Chinnor and Dunoon or neither. But there were already a number of people who went Independent for Dunoon and Conservative in Chinnor, including Tony