timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 3, 2018 12:59:39 GMT
The Aegeas Bowl to be precise 😉😁 Toilet Bowl to be more accurate.  So I’ve heard, but apparently not as stomach churningly awful as the SWALEC in Cardiff. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 3, 2018 13:23:22 GMT
Toilet Bowl to be more accurate. So I’ve heard, but apparently not as stomach churningly awful as the SWALEC in Cardiff. At least you can escape from Sophia Gardens for a beer locally. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 3, 2018 13:25:10 GMT
So I’ve heard, but apparently not as stomach churningly awful as the SWALEC in Cardiff. At least you can escape from Sophia Gardens for a beer locally. That’s always a plus! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 3, 2018 14:04:27 GMT
If it were in most other towns, Kempshott would be easily a marginal. Would it? 2nd most owner-occupied ward in Hampshire, entirely in the 10% least deprived areas of the country, high average age etc. It's not deprived, but it's not very posh either if you go there. The housing has tended in the past to be quite cheap for Basingstoke district. It reminds me very much of marginal wards I know up here. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Mar 3, 2018 17:37:29 GMT
Has no-one got details of the transfers in Clackmannanshire?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 5, 2018 10:04:42 GMT
Whatever you want to call it it's a depressing place to be especially when part of the point of this forum is analysis and appreciation of voting patterns/psephology in general from people of diverse political backgrounds. Some of the best analysis of Lib Dem prospects in certain places comes from non-Lib Dem members of this forum because they appreciate the electoral circumstances and voting patterns in their area better than any Lib Dem on here. Thinking that anyone not from your party has an ulterior motive when it comes to considering electoral prospects in a certain area really does make me question what you get out of this site in terms of elections. maybe you're a nicer person than me but I only question what others say because to be frank I'd probably do the same Nobody but very new newcomers knowingly ramps on here. But a lot of us make arguments that probably have more to do with our own prejudices than with observable evidence. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2018 10:52:46 GMT
You really do make an utter fool of yourself sometimes. I've little doubt that I do, being human and all. On this issue, though, I believe it will be those who deny the unbreakable nature of our historic counties who are ultimately shown to be the real fools. Your anchoring to the historic counties isn't mere pedantry; it's boring. It's the worst kind of nerdery, the most irritating form of "well actually-ism". I've met blokes like you in many a boozer. "Well actually Manchester is in Lancashire...". And I take great pleasure in thinking how far Manchester has moved on since 1974 while a group of increasingly old anorak wearers blather on about an arbitrary fixed point in local government administration. You commit the worst crime in psephology: you bore me. |
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 5, 2018 12:14:49 GMT
Has no-one got details of the transfers in Clackmannanshire?[/quotehttp://www.clacks.gov.uk/document/5759.pdf |
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Post by robert1 on Mar 5, 2018 12:40:48 GMT
Thank you Mark. I had just managed to locate the figures as well.
The messages of the transfers seem to be; Greens split slightly more heavily to SNP than to Lab and LD but won’t go Tory, LDs split slightly more Tory than to Lab and SNP and Lab goes to SNP over Tory at roughly 5:3.
I understand (not checked) this is fairly similar to the Bonnybridge re-distribution.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 5, 2018 17:20:51 GMT
Remarkably there were 220 postal votes cast in Exmouth, and 440 people voted in person yesterday. Those were the figures I was most anxious to see, thanks. I guess the total number of potential postal votes , i.e the electors on the local authority's postal vote register, would be at least double the actual recorded postal votes -a 50% turnout on the postal vote register would be pretty good. If that proved to be right, then the votes cast in person would equal the pv register, which was what I had said I thought might be the case. If anything I am surprised the postal voted turnout wasn't higher. I suppose the fact that this was a compact town centre ward played a part- a really rural ward would be much higher, I imagine. I see I wasn't that far wrong -the postal vote turnout was 45%, so the total number of votes cast at the polling stations ( say 440) would indeed have been a bit lower than the numbers on the postal vote register (say 500)- not half , but certainly less. The personal voting turnout would have been less than 10% |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
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Post by Foggy on Mar 5, 2018 19:13:30 GMT
I've little doubt that I do, being human and all. On this issue, though, I believe it will be those who deny the unbreakable nature of our historic counties who are ultimately shown to be the real fools. Your anchoring to the historic counties isn't mere pedantry; it's boring. You commit the worst crime in psephology: you bore me. I've never claimed that my views on the counties constitute either pedantry or psephological analysis. They are my deeply held opinion. Sorry if you find that boring. |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 5, 2018 22:08:26 GMT
Basingstoke & Deane - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes. | 2018 share | Since 2016 | Since 2015. | since 2014 | since 2012. | | Conservative | 686 | 58.9% | -5.6% | -2.0% | +3.1% | -12.2% | | Labour | 366 | 31.4% | +12.3% | -16.1% | +14.9% | +11.6% | | Liberal Democrat. | 113 | 9.7% | from nowhere. | +2.4% | +2.4% | +0.6% | | UKIP |
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| -16.4% | -11.8% | -20.3% |
| | Green | |
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| -4.7% |
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| | Total votes | 1,165 |
| 55% | 27% | 50% | 64% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 9% since 2016 & 2015, ~ 6% since 2014 and ~ 12% since 2012 Council now 33 Conservative, 20 Labour, 6 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent
Clackmannanshire, Clackmannanshire North - SNP hold based on first preference votes | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2017 | | SNP | 769 | 37.0% | -3.3% | | Conservative | 658 | 31.7% | +7.6% | | Labour | 493 | 23.7% | -3.0% | | LiberalDemocrat. | 84 | 4.0% | -1.1% | | Green | 74 | 3.6% | -0.6% | | Total votes | 2,078 |
| 52% |
Swing SNP to Conservative ~ 5.5% since 2017 Council now 8 SNP, 5 Conservative, 5 Labour East Devon, Exmouth Town - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share. | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat. | 187 | 28.2% | -2.7% | -0.2% | -9.1% | -7.7% | | Independent | 176 | 26.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 142 | 21.5% | -3.6% | -3.5% | -3.1% | -2.2% | | Labour | 86 | 13.0% | -7.7% | -9.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 71 | 10.7% | -12.6% | -14.0% | -7.1% | -8.1% | | UKIP |
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| -12.1% | -12.8% | | Previous Independent. | |
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| -8.3% | -8.8% | | Total votes | 662 |
| 19% | 20% | 30% | 31% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 35 Conservative, 15 Independent Group, 7 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent Solihull, Blythe - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Conservative | 1,252 | 75.9% | +24.7% | +1.8% | +29.7% | +38.8% | Labour | 224 | 13.6% | +4.6% | +1.8% | +3.9% | +3.9% | Liberal Democrat | 174 | 10.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | +0.2% | Residents Association * |
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| -33.5% |
| -44.2% | -42.9% | Green |
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| -6.4% | -14.2% |
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| Total votes | 1,650 |
| 53% | 23% | 47% | 60% |
* Solihull & Meriden Residents Association
Swing not meaningful apart from 2015 where it was negligible
Council now 31 Conservative, 10 Green, 6 Liberal Democrat, 2 UKUIP, 1 Labour, 1 Independent
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 2,672
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Post by swanarcadian on Jun 30, 2018 22:49:51 GMT
I've reported the spammer.
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