Prediction Competition for September 2012

[dibs]

BRECKLAND - Thetford Abbey
LIBDEM 35 CON 30 LAB 25 UKIP 10

BURNLEY - Trinity
LAB 45 LIBDEM 16 CON 14 UKIP 10 BNP 12 NATFRONT 3

CHARNWOOD - Loughborough Southfields
LAB 45 CON 35 LIBDEM 20

EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE - Campsie & Kirkintilloch North
INDEPREID 34 SNP 23 LAB 21 CON 12 LIBDEM 6 GREEN 4

SHROPSHIRE - Church Stretton & Craven Arms
CON 45 LIBDEM 30 LAB 25

[erlend]

Breckland LD 34 Lab 30 Con 20 UKIP 16
Burnley Lab 44 LD 22 Con 17 UKIP 10 BNP 6 NF 1
Charnwood Lab 50 Con 37 LD 13
E Dumbartonshire Ins 30 SNP 27 Lab 25 Con 14 LD 2 Green 2
Shropshire LD 45 Con 40 Lab 15

For the record my assumption is that the Indy will win in E Dumbartonshire I know that is not part of the competition. I think he will win even if I am wrong about the first place.

[Deleted]

BRECKLAND - Thetford Abbey
LAB 40 LIBDEM 24 CON 19 UKIP 17

BURNLEY - Trinity
LAB 47 LIBDEM 26 UKIP 10 CON 8 BNP 7 NF 2

CHARNWOOD - Loughborough Southfields
LAB 48 CON 36 LIBDEM 16

EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE - Campsie & Kirkintilloch North
IND 34 LAB 32 SNP 20 CON 7 LIBDEM 3 GREEN 4

I am not sure about my voting guesses (esp. SNP) but the Independent is not the campaigner that the late Charles Kennedy was and Labour might snatch this one in the end.


SHROPSHIRE - Church Stretton & Craven Arms
LIBDEM 41 CON 36 LAB 23

Not sure about the last one either but, given the smaaler candidate pool and the lack of Greens, I give it to the Lib Dems, but think that I may have made their vote share too high and the Con one too low.

I know I have missed the first week of the month, but I am making a slow return after an enforced hiatus.

[Robert Waller]

BRECKLAND - Thetford Abbey
LIBDEM 17 CON 35 LAB 40 UKIP 8

BURNLEY - Trinity
LAB 53 LIBDEM 26 CON 8 UKIP 4 BNP 7 NATFRONT 2

CHARNWOOD - Loughborough Southfields
LAB 54 CON 34 LIBDEM 12

EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE - Campsie & Kirkintilloch North
INDEPREID 24 SNP 32 LAB 31 CON 4 LIBDEM 7 GREEN 2

SHROPSHIRE - Church Stretton & Craven Arms
CON 45 LIBDEM 39 LAB 16

[piperdave]

I'm only going to enter for the East Dunbartonshire contest and be totally contrary to everything posted so far!

LAB 40, SNP 35, IND 15, CON 5, LIBD 3, GRN 2

Labour to be the overall winner, probably after the Indy gets knocked out.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BRECKLAND Thetford Abbey: Lab 45.3, C 30.0, L Dem 15.1, UKIP 9.6.
BURNLEY Trinity: Lab 56.1, L Dem 20.2, C 9.6, BNP 8.2, UKIP 4.0, NF 1.9
CHARNWOOD Loughborough Southfields: Lab 54.1, C 35.8, L Dem 10.1.
EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE Campsie and Kirkintilloch North: Lab 31.4, SNP 30.9, Ind 26.0, C 6.9, L Dem 3.0, SGP 1.8
SHROPSHIRE Church Stretton and Craven Arms: L Dem 34.6, C 32.8, Lab 32.6

[independentukip]

BRECKLAND
LD 14, CON 27, LAB 48, UKIP 11

BURNLEY
LAB 65, LD 15, CON 4, UKIP 7, BNP 8, NF 1

CHARNWOOD
LAB 59, CON 31, LD 10

EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE
IND 32, SNP 27, LAB 30, CON 4, LD 3, GREEN 4

SHROPSHIRE
CON 45, LD 23, LAB 32

[East Anglian Lefty]

Breckland DC, Thetford Abbey
Lab 46
Con 27
LD 18
UKIP 9

Burnley BC, Trinity
Lab 50
LD 26
BNP 9
Con 9
UKIP 5
NF 1

Charnwood DC, Loughborough Southfields
Lab 44
Con 39
LD 17

East Dunbartonshire, Campsie and Kirkintilloch North
Lab 37
SNP 31
Ind 18
LD 7
Con 6
Green 1

Shropshire UA, Church Stretton and Craven Arms
LD 41
Con 35
Lab 24

[marksenior]

My attempt this week

Breckland Lab 38 LD 30 Con 24 UKIP 8
Burnley Lab 51 LD 25 Con 11 UKIP 6 BNP 4 NF 3
Charnwood Lab 53 Con 34 LD 13
East Dunb . Lab 32 SNP 30 Ind 22 Con 8 LD 5 Green 3 - Labour to win
Shropshire LD 38 Con 36 Lab 26

[Deleted]

Breckland

Lab 44
Con 25
LD 22
Ukip 9

Burnley

Lab 52
LD 26
Con 9
Ukip 7
BNP 5
NF 1

Charnwood

Lab 57
Con 32
LD 11

East Dunbartonshire

Lab 34
SNP 32
Ind 18
Con 8
LD 4
Grn 4

Shropshire

LD 39
Con 36
Lab 25

[hempie]

Breckland, Thetford Abbey: Lab 48,Con 27, LD 18, UKIP7
Burnley, Trinity: Lab 50, LD 24, Con 9, BNP 9, UKIP 5, NF 3
Charnwood, Loughborough Southfields: Lab 57, Con 30. LD 13
East Dunbartonshire, campsie & Kirkintilloch East:. Lab 30, Ind 29, SNP 26, Con 7, LD 5, Green 3 - Labour to win
Shropshire, Church Stretton & Craven Arms: LD 43, Con 35, Lab 22

[Tony Otim]

Breckland:
Lab 36.2
Con 30.2
LD 22.4
UKIP 11.2

Burnley:
Lab 57.8
LD 19.2
Con 9.8
BNP 6.7
UKIP 4.2
NF 2.3

Charnwood:
Lab 56.2
Con 31.6
LD 12.2

East Dunbartonshire:
Lab 29.6
SNP 27.2
Ind 25.4
Con 7.2
LD 6.2
Grn 4.4

(FWIW, the Indy will probably get it on transfers).

Shropshire:
LD 40.9
Con 36.7
Lab 22.4


I've had no time to do any proper research or working out, so these are even more stabs in the dark than usual

[Khunanup]

Mine this week:

Thetford Abbey: Lab 38%, Con 30%, Lib Dem 24% UKIP 8%
Trinity: Lab 51%, Lib Dem 24%, Con 10%, BNP 9%, UKIP 4%, NF 2%
Loughborough Southfields: Lab 46%, Con 30%, Lib Dem 24%
Campsie and Kirkintilloch North: Ind 45%, Lab 25%, SNP 18%, Lib Dem 6%, Con 4%, Green 2%
Church Stretton and Craven Arms: Lib Dem 44%, Con 38%, Lab 18%

[greatkingrat]

BRECKLAND - Lab 43, Con 30, LD 18, UKIP 9
BURNLEY - Lab 52, LD 24, Con 9, BNP 8, UKIP 5, NF 2
CHARNWOOD - Lab 49, Con 37, LD 14
EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE - Lab 36, SNP 29, Ind 23, Con 6, LD 3, Grn 3
SHROPSHIRE - LD 44, Con 38, Lab 18

[Pete Whitehead]

Shropshire UA - Church Stretton & Craven Arms

LD 42.7%
Con 39.8%
Lab 17.5%


Breckland DC - Thetford Abbey

Lab 39.3%
Con 32.8%
UKIP 15.5%
LD 12.4%


Burnley BC - Trinity

Lab 53.8%
LD 23.5%
BNP 8.2%
Con 7.4%
UKIP 5.2%
NF 1.9%


Charnwood BC - Loughborough Southfields

Lab 47.9%
Con 36.6%
LD 15.5%


East Dunbartonshire - Campsie & Kirkintilloch North

Ind 33.9%
Lab 29.2%
SNP 22.4%
Con 6.7%
LD 4.4%
Grn 3.4%

I must admit I didn't put very much thought or research into the Scottish one and may have allowed myself to be influenced by the few people who had already posted at that stage, whereas my initial instinct was to put Labour on top. This might cost me dear if the greater wisdom of subsequent posters proves correct

[Philip Davies]

BRECKLAND - Thetford Abbey

Roy BRAME (The Conservative Party Candidate) 34.5
Mike BRINDLE (Liberal Democrat) 10.5
Brenda CANHAM (The Labour Party Candidate) 47.5
Denis CRAWFORD (UK Independence Party) 7.5


BURNLEY - Trinity

Derek DAWSON (British National Party) 7
Stephanie FORREST (Liberal Democrat) 21
Tony MARTIN (Labour Party Candidate) 55
Craig RAMPLEE (UK Independence Party) 5
Steven SMITH (National Front) 3
Tom WATSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 9


CHARNWOOD - Loughborough Southfields

Diana BRASS (Liberal Democrat) 12.5
Mary DRAYCOTT (The Labour Party) 57.5
Ted PARTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30


EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE - Campsie & Kirkintilloch North

Ross GREER (Scottish Green Party) 5.1
Billy HUTCHISON (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 25.4
Susan MURRAY (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 2.4
Brian REID (Independent) 35.6
Alisdair SINCLAIR (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 4.6
Gemma WELSH (Scottish Labour Party) 26.9


SHROPSHIRE - Church Stretton & Craven Arms

Lee CHAPMAN (Conservative Party Candidate) 39.6
Clive LEWORTHY (The Labour Party) 19.5
Bob WELCH (Liberal Democrat) 40.9

[Andrew_S]

BRECKLAND - Thetford Abbey:
Lab 40
Con 30
UKIP 20
LD 10

BURNLEY - Trinity:
Lab 60
LD 18
UKIP 8
Con 7
BNP 5
NF 2

CHARNWOOD - Loughborough Southfields:
Lab 56
Con 35
LD 9

EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE - Campsie & Kirkintilloch North:
Lab 45
SNP 40
Ind (Reid) 5
Green 4
Con 4
LD 2

SHROPSHIRE - Church Stretton & Craven Arms:
LD 44
Con 36
Lab 20

[andrewteale]

CHURCH STRETTON AND CRAVEN ARMS
Prediction: C 43 LD 40 Lab 17

(BURNLEY) TRINITY
Prediction: Lab 52 LD 21 C 10 BNP 8 NF 5 UKIP 4

LOUGHBOROUGH SOUTHFIELDS
Prediction: Lab 49 C 40 LD 11

THETFORD-ABBEY
Prediction: Lab 48 C 22 LD 21 UKIP 9

CAMPSIE AND KIRKINTILLOCH NORTH
Prediction (first preferences): Lab 36 SNP 33 Ind 15 C 9 LD 4 Grn 3; Labour to win on transfers.

[Pete Whitehead]

18 Full entries this week with nothing from Arthur Figgis and Kris Keane but Catholicleft rejoins, carrying 300 faults from last week

Shropshire UA - Church Stretton
Average prediction
LD 38.7%
Con 38.7%
Lab 22.6%

13 predict a LD gain with Andrew Teale, Dibs, Ianrobo, Indepependent UKIP and Robert Waller predicting a Conservative hold


Breckland DC -Thetford Abbey
Average prediction
Lab 41.0%
Con 27.8%
LD 20.2%
UKIP 11.1%

16 contestants predict a Labour gain with Dibs and erlend predicting a LD gain

Burnley BC - Trinity
Average
Lab 52.2%
LD 21.7%
Con 9.8%
BNP 7.8%
UKIP 6.3%
NF 2.2%

All 18 contestants predict a Labour hold


Charnwood BC - Loughborough Southfields
Average
Lab 51.6%
Con 34.2%
LD 14.2%

All 18 contestants predict a Labour hold


East Dunbartonshire - Campsie & Kirkintilloch N
Average
Lab 31.1%
SNP 27.8%
Ind 26.4%
Con 7.0%
LD 4.4%
Grn 3.2%

19 entries here with Piperdave making a cameo appearance. 10 contestants predict Labour ahead on first preferences with 8 going for an Independent 'hold' (Catholicleft, Dibs, Erlend, IndependentUKIP, Ianrobo, Khunanup, Phildav76 and Pete Whitehead). Robert Waller predicts an SNP lead on first preferences

[Pete Whitehead]

Breckland: IndependentUKIP 16.2, Andrew Teale and Catholic Left 19.0, Ianrobo 21.0, EastAnglianLefty and Hempie 23.0

Burnley: Hempie and Khunanup 5.3, EastAnglianLefty 5.4, Greatkingrat 8.5, Robert Waller 9.4, Andrew Teale and Mark Senior 12.1

Charnwood: Andrew Teale 27.1, Erlend and Greatkingrat 33.1, Pete Whitehead 33.9, Eastanglianlefty 34.3 (all inclusive of 10 wrong winner faults)

Shropshire: Robert Waller 8.5, Dibs 10.4, Andrew Teale 10.5, Phildav76 12.3 +10, IndependentUKIP 24.4, Pete Whitehead 15.9 + 10

Hempie narrowly ahead of EAL on the week with Andrew Teale in third