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Post by middleenglander on Jul 29, 2012 23:13:37 GMT
There are only 7 8 contests this month, 5 on August 2nd, 2 on August 16th and 1 on August 30th.
- 3 are for District council seats last contested in May 2011
- 1 is for a District Council elected in May 2011 although there was a by-election for the same seat in March 2012
- 1 is for a Unitary Authority last contested on new boundaries in 2011
- 1 is for a County Council last contested in 2009 and
- 1 2 for a Welsh Council elected in May 2012.
The Conservatives are defending 3 seats (2 following resignations and 1 the death of the previous councillor), Labour 1 2 seats (deaths), Lib Dems 1 seat (also a death) and Independent / Resident (1 resignation and 1 death).
With nomonations known for 7 seats, the Conservatives are contesting all 7 seats, Labour and Independents 4 seats, Lib Dems and UKIP 3 seats, and Residents, English Democrats, TUSC and Plaid Cymru 1 each.
Posting amended for the Bridgend, Bettws contest on 30th August with nomination required by 2nd August.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am BST of the day of the election.
I have accepted hempie's entry on the July prediction thread as this was posted well before the current thread was started.
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Post by marksenior on Jul 30, 2012 14:20:14 GMT
Now 1 ( at least ) byelection on August 30th
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 30, 2012 23:58:29 GMT
Mine this week.
Lincoln East: Lab 46%, Con 30%, Lib Dem 15%, UKIP 6%, ED 2%, TUSC 1%
Fleet: Con 53%, Ind 47%
Long Sutton: Ind 61%, Con 39%
Buttrills: Lab 49%, PC 36%, Con 9%, Ind 6%
Polegate North: Lib Dem 41%, Ind 29%, Con 21%, Lab 5%, UKIP 4%
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Post by erlend on Aug 1, 2012 20:03:00 GMT
I will see if I have the consistency to contribute for a whole month"
Lincoln East: Lab 45, Con 25, LD 20, UKIP 8, ED1, TUSC 1
Fleet: Ind 55, Con 45
Long Sutton: Ind 60, Con 40
Buttrills: Lab 45, PC 33. Con 15, Ind 7
Polegate N: LD 32.84, Ind 32.83, Con 24, UKIP 6, Lab 4.33
For the record basically I am postulating a draw in Polegate but need to predict the drawing of lots for competition purposes!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 1, 2012 20:39:20 GMT
Precedent has been set that it is possible to predict in effect a draw in these situations in which case you would receieve 5 'wrong winner' faults if either of those candidates were to win
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 1, 2012 21:14:13 GMT
There may be an issue in the event that a count concluded with two or more candidates tied. This would mean drawing lots, but the winner of the drawing of lots would then receive the Returning Officer's casting vote as an additional vote. Would the percentages be calculated on the basis of the original figures, or the figures after the casting vote?
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Aug 1, 2012 21:37:50 GMT
LINCOLNSHIRE - Lincoln East
LAB 39 CON 28 LIBDEM 22 UKIP 9 TUSC 1 ENG DEM 1
SOUTH HOLLAND - Fleet
CON 55 INDEP GEMMELL 45
SOUTH HOLLAND - Long Sutton
INDEP TENNANT 60 CON 40
VALE OF GLAMORGAN - Buttrills
LAB 40 PC 33 CON 15 INDEP GREEN 12
WEALDEN - Polegate North
LIBDEM 38 INDEP O’RIORDAN 30 CON 21 LAB 6 UKIP 5
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 1, 2012 21:47:01 GMT
There may be an issue in the event that a count concluded with two or more candidates tied. This would mean drawing lots, but the winner of the drawing of lots would then receive the Returning Officer's casting vote as an additional vote. Would the percentages be calculated on the basis of the original figures, or the figures after the casting vote? We go on the official figures published by the Returning Officer. |
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Post by erlend on Aug 1, 2012 22:01:35 GMT
David you would be the fount of wisdom on this but my assumption is that the published figures would normally include the RO's casting vote.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 1, 2012 22:32:23 GMT
David you would be the fount of wisdom on this but my assumption is that the published figures would normally include the RO's casting vote. Yes, they would. Bury's results page gives the Ramsbottom result for 2011 as a Labour majority of 1 (1,823 to 1,822); the candidates actually ended up tied and the one vote was the result of drawing straws. Rallings and Thrasher also show it as 1,823 to 1,822 with no note explaining where the last vote came from. LEAP on the other hand identifies it as an occasion where the casting vote came in. |
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Post by erlend on Aug 1, 2012 22:53:17 GMT
Actually I should probably know from personal experience as the agent when it happened in St Albans' Wheathampstead ward in ca 2006. But not sure I ever checked the formal notice.
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Post by independentukip on Aug 1, 2012 22:58:45 GMT
Lincoln East: Lab 40%, Con 37%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 11%, ED 2%, TUSC 2%
Fleet: Con 58%, Ind 42%
Long Sutton: Ind 49%, Con 51%
Buttrills: Lab 40%, PC 37%, Con 13%, Ind 10%
Polegate North: Lib Dem 32%, Ind 40%, Con 14%, Lab 4%, UKIP 10%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2012 23:05:09 GMT
Lincoln East: Lab 51%, Con 32%, Lib Dem 10%, UKIP 5%, ED 1%, TUSC 1%
Fleet: Con 65%, Ind 35%
Long Sutton: Ind 65%, Con 35%
Buttrills: Lab 52%, PC 24%, Con 20%, Ind 4%
Polegate North: Lib Dem 30%, Ind 49%, Con 11 %, Lab 6%, UKIP 4%
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 1, 2012 23:11:35 GMT
David you would be the fount of wisdom on this but my assumption is that the published figures would normally include the RO's casting vote. Yes, they would. Bury's results page gives the Ramsbottom result for 2011 as a Labour majority of 1 (1,823 to 1,822); the candidates actually ended up tied and the one vote was the result of drawing straws. Rallings and Thrasher also show it as 1,823 to 1,822 with no note explaining where the last vote came from. LEAP on the other hand identifies it as an occasion where the casting vote came in. My experience is that there isn't any consistency. Some Returning Officers publish tied results as a tie, some don't. |
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Post by leicesterlad on Aug 1, 2012 23:28:16 GMT
LINCOLNSHIRE - Lincoln East
LAB 40 CON 27 LIBDEM 22 UKIP 9 TUSC 1 ENG DEM 1
SOUTH HOLLAND - Fleet
CON 63 INDEP GEMMELL 37
SOUTH HOLLAND - Long Sutton
CON 51 INDEP TENNANT 49
VALE OF GLAMORGAN - Buttrills
LAB 45 PC 35 INDEP GREEN 11 CON 9
WEALDEN - Polegate North
LIBDEM 35 INDEP O’RIORDAN 30 CON 25 LAB 5.5 UKIP 4.5
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 2, 2012 0:04:06 GMT
LINCOLNSHIRE Lincoln East: Lab 57.6, C 25.2, L Dem 7.9, UKIP 3.8, TUSC 2.9, ED 2.6.
SOUTH HOLLAND Fleet: C 76.4, Ind 23.6
SOUTH HOLLAND Long Sutton: Ind 68.8, C 31.2
VALE OF GLAMORGAN Buttrills: Lab 54.8, PC 26.1, C 12.6, Ind 6.5
WEALDEN Polegate North: Ind 50.0, C 22.6, L Dem 12.2, Lab 9.8, UKIP 5.4
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 2, 2012 0:52:23 GMT
LINCOLNSHIRE Lincoln East: Lab 53, C 28, L Dem 7, UKIP 6, TUSC 4, ED 2.
SOUTH HOLLAND Fleet: C 60, Ind 40
SOUTH HOLLAND Long Sutton: Ind 63, C 37
VALE OF GLAMORGAN Buttrills: Lab 50, PC 30, C 12, Ind 8
WEALDEN Polegate North: Ind 34, C 19, L Dem 31, Lab 5, UKIP 11
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Post by marksenior on Aug 2, 2012 5:47:21 GMT
My forecasts this week
Lincs Lab 48 Con 28 LD 12 UKIP 8 ED 2 TUSC 2
S Holland Fleet Con 62 Ind 38
S Holland Long Sutton Ind 65 Con 35
Vale Of Glam Lab 52 PC 26 Con 13 Ind 9
Wealden Ind 41 LD 26 Con 19 Lab 9 UKIP 5
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 2, 2012 9:45:18 GMT
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Post by Philip Davies on Aug 2, 2012 10:33:18 GMT
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