End of Year Prediction Competition

[middleenglander]

Stratford upon Avon, Shipton
Justlooking 9.3 faults, Swindon Lad 10.7+10, tonyotim 15.7+10, Robert Waller 16.7+10, Khunanup & Mark Senior 20.7+10, Andrew Teale & hempie 26.7+10
David Boothroyd & greatkingrat 28.7+10, strinity 33.3+10, Pete Whitehead 35.3+10, PhilDav76 36.5+10, andyajs 44.7+10

Southwark, East Walworth - assuming Labour vote 1,259
Pete Whitehead 6.5 faults, Robert Waller 6.9, PhilDav76 9.9, greatkingrat 10.0, tonyotim 12.5, Andrew Teale 12.9, Mark Senior & Swindon Lad 13.1
hempie 15.1, strinity 18.3, andyajs 21.1, Khunanup 28.0, David Boothroyd 28.3, justlooking 45.1

and for the 2 weeks awaiting Western Isles:
tonyotim in the lead 0.8 faults ahead of Swindon Lad who is 7.8 in front of Robert Waller with Pete Whitehead fourth, greatkingrat 5th and strinity 6th.

[swindonlad]

Nov 30, 2012 0:55:46 GMT middleenglander said:

and for the 2 weeks awaiting Western Isles:
tonyotim in the lead 0.8 faults ahead of Swindon Lad who is 7.8 in front of Robert Waller with Pete Whitehead fourth, greatkingrat 5th and strinity 6th.

having seen western isles that's the end of my good run this month

[Tony Otim]

I reckon David will have the best score from Western Isles, but Pete may have done enough to go into the lead overall.

Some of us may have been better off not putting in a prediction at all for that one

[middleenglander]

Nov 30, 2012 12:07:10 GMT Tony Otim said:

I reckon David will have the best score from Western Isles, but Pete may have done enough to go into the lead overall.

Some of us may have been better off not putting in a prediction at all for that one

Looks like Pete Whitehead on 137.1 faults month to date, greatkingrat 154.2, Mark Senior 158.7, PhilDav76 160.6, tonyotim 165.7 and David Boothroyd 166.3.

Full result late this afternoon.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 30, 2012 12:07:10 GMT Tony Otim said:

I reckon David will have the best score from Western Isles, but Pete may have done enough to go into the lead overall.

Some of us may have been better off not putting in a prediction at all for that one

AFAICT only Andyajs got more than 100 faults on that contest. I'm not sure if the convention was established that faults should be capped at 100 per individiual contest

[middleenglander]

Stratford upon Avon, Shipton - revised figures now Conservative vote was 431 and not 331
Justlooking 14.3 faults, Swindon Lad 9.0+10, Khunanup 15.7+10, Mark Senior17.0+10, tonyotim 17.2+10, Robert Waller 21.0+10, Andrew Teale & hempie 21.7+10, David Boothroyd & greatkingrat 23.7+10, strinity 28.3+10, Pete Whitehead 30.3+10, PhilDav76 31.5+10, andyajs 39.7+10

Southwark, East Walworth - assuming Labour vote 1,259
Pete Whitehead 6.5 faults, Robert Waller 6.9, PhilDav76 9.9, greatkingrat 10.0, tonyotim 12.5, Andrew Teale 12.9, Mark Senior & Swindon Lad 13.1
hempie 15.1, strinity 18.3, andyajs 21.1, Khunanup 28.0, David Boothroyd 28.3, justlooking 45.1

Western Isles, Uig & North Lochs
David Boothroyd 40.3 faults, Pete Whitehead 49.9, PhilDav76 53.2, Andrew Teale 57.6, Mark Senior 59.1, greatkingrat 63.1, strinity 79.1
tonyotim 80.9+10, hempie & Robert Waller 81.1+10, justlooking, Khunanup & Swindon Lad 87.1+10, andyajs 95.1+10 (not capped as no late time faults)

And for the week:
Pete Whitehead 96.7, Mark Senior 99.2. Andrew Teale 102.2, David Boothroyd 102.4, PhilDav76 104.7, greatkingrat 106.8, Robert Waller 128.9
Swindon Lad 129.2, tonyotim, 130.6, strinity 135.8, hempie 138.0, Khunanup 150.8, justlooking 156.5, andyajs 176.0

[middleenglander]

Faults for the first 2 weeks of the competition period:

132.1 Pete Whitehead
149.2 greatkingrat
155.0 Mark Senior
155.6 PhilDav76
161.3 David Boothroyd

162.6 Andrew Teale
167.2 tonyotim
168.7 strinity
170.9 Swindon Lad
178.7 Robert Waller

192.6 Khunanup
214.9 justlooking
226.3 andyajs
238.0 hempie

Objections please by 9.00 am Saturday Sunday

6 contests next week. The Vale of White Horse has one for 2 seats, but since there are only 2 candidates for both the Conservatives and Lib Dems, predictions should be based on total vote for each party.
All predictions by 9.00 am Thursday.

[Deleted]

Nov 30, 2012 0:55:46 GMT middleenglander said:

Stratford upon Avon, Shipton
Justlooking 9.3 faults, Swindon Lad 10.7+10, tonyotim 15.7+10, Robert Waller 16.7+10, Khunanup & Mark Senior 20.7+10, Andrew Teale & hempie 26.7+10
David Boothroyd & greatkingrat 28.7+10, strinity 33.3+10, Pete Whitehead 35.3+10, PhilDav76 36.5+10, andyajs 44.7+10

Southwark, East Walworth - assuming Labour vote 1,259
Pete Whitehead 6.5 faults, Robert Waller 6.9, PhilDav76 9.9, greatkingrat 10.0, tonyotim 12.5, Andrew Teale 12.9, Mark Senior & Swindon Lad 13.1
hempie 15.1, strinity 18.3, andyajs 21.1, Khunanup 28.0, David Boothroyd 28.3, justlooking 45.1

and for the 2 weeks awaiting Western Isles:
tonyotim in the lead 0.8 faults ahead of Swindon Lad who is 7.8 in front of Robert Waller with Pete Whitehead fourth, greatkingrat 5th and strinity 6th.

From hero to zero in a matter of one prediction

[Deleted]

BRENTWOOD - Shenfield

Liz COHEN (Liberal Democrat) 33.1
Steve MAY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 33
Richard MILLWOOD (The Labour Party Candidate) 15
David WATT (UKIP) 18.9

CORNWALL - Gwinear-Gwithian and St Erth

Yvonne BATES (Liberal Democrats) 30.1
Derek ELLIOTT (Independent) 5
Sheila FURNEAUX (Independent) 5
John GILLINGHAM (Mebyon Kernow - The Party For Cornwall) 14.9
Malcolm HURST (The Labour Party Candidate) 10
Anthony PASCOE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30
Michael ROBERTS (Independent) 5

NEATH PORT TALBOT -

Charlotte CROSS (Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 25
Andrew JENKINS (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 75

SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE - Wombourne North and Lower Penn

Barry BOND (The Conservative Party Candidate) 36.9
John BRINDLE (The Labour Party Candidate) 27
Lyndon JONES (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 36.1

SUTTON - Stonecot

Bonnie Elizabeth Craven (Lab) 15
Nick Emmerson (Lib Dem) 35
Joan Mary Hartfield (Green Party) 10
Graham Alexander Jarvis (Con) 25
Jeremy Gill Wraith (UKIP) 15



VALE OF WHITE HORSE - Sunningwell and Wooton (2 seats)

Adam HARDIMAN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 40
Elizabeth MILES (Liberal Democrat) 60
Valerie SHAW (Liberal Democrat) 60
Richard TREFFLER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 40

[Robert Waller]

BRENTWOOD - Shenfield

Liz COHEN (Liberal Democrat) 49
Steve MAY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 32
Richard MILLWOOD (The Labour Party Candidate) 7
David WATT (UKIP) 12

CORNWALL - Gwinear-Gwithian and St Erth

Yvonne BATES (Liberal Democrats) 14
Derek ELLIOTT (Independent) 9
Sheila FURNEAUX (Independent) 27
John GILLINGHAM (Mebyon Kernow - The Party For Cornwall) 5
Malcolm HURST (The Labour Party Candidate) 4
Anthony PASCOE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 26
Michael ROBERTS (Independent) 15

NEATH PORT TALBOT -

Charlotte CROSS (Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 17
Andrew JENKINS (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 83

SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE - Wombourne North and Lower Penn

Barry BOND (The Conservative Party Candidate) 48
John BRINDLE (The Labour Party Candidate) 11
Lyndon JONES (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 41

SUTTON - Stonecot

Bonnie Elizabeth Craven (Lab) 16
Nick Emmerson (Lib Dem) 49
Joan Mary Hartfield (Green Party) 3
Graham Alexander Jarvis (Con) 24
Jeremy Gill Wraith (UKIP) 8



VALE OF WHITE HORSE - Sunningwell and Wooton (2 seats)

(The Conservative Party Candidates) 44
(Liberal Democrats) 56

(Is this the right way to do this one?)


EDITED as suggested below, just to say 2 LD elected

[middleenglander]

For clarification, where there is a "double" election such as this week, contestants should predict those elected, in this case 2 Conservatives or 2 Lib Dems or 1 Conservative and 1 Lib Dem. Where this is not specified, it will be assumed that candidates elected will be from the party with the largest predicted share of the vote.

[marksenior]

Brentwood LD 40 Con 36 UKIP 14 Lab 8
Cornwall Ind F 27 Con 24 LD 21 Lab 11 MK 7 Ind E 5 Ind R 5
Neath Lab 84 LD 16
S Staffs Con 52 UKIP 26 Lab 22
Sutton LD 37 Con 33 Lab 17 UKIP 8 Green 5
Vale LD 54 Con 46

[Deleted]

Brentwood

LD 42.1
Con 38.2
UKIP 11.6
Lab 8.1

Cornwall

Furneaux 33.2
Con 28.1
LD 14.3
MK 8.1
Lab 7.2
Elliott 5
Roberts 4.1

Neath Port Talbot

Lab 82
LD 18

South Staffs

Con 54
UKIP 29
Lab 17

Sutton

LD 46.1
Con 27.1
Lab 14.3
UKIP 8.4
Green 4.1

Vale of White Horse

LD 56
Con 44

(2 LD elected)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BRENTWOOD Shenfield: L Dem 45.0, C 42.9, Lab 6.5, UKIP 5.6

CORNWALL Gwinear-Gwithian and St Erth: Ind Furneaux 36.1, C 28.9, L Dem 11.8, Ind Roberts 8.6, MK 6.9, Lab 5.0, Ind Elliott 2.7

NEATH PORT TALBOT Neath South: Lab 70.9, L Dem 29.1

SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE Wombourne North and Lower Penn: C 66.0, UKIP 20.8, Lab 13.2

SUTTON Stonecot: L Dem 45.5, C 31.5, Lab 17.2, UKIP 4.1, GP 1.7

VALE OF WHITE HORSE Sunningwell and Wooton: C 63.6, L Dem 36.4. Hardiman and Treffler elected.

[Khunanup]

Mine this week.

Shenfield: Lib Dem 36%, Con 35%, UKIP 17% Lab 12%
Gwinear-Gwithian and St. Erth: Con 32%, Ind F 20%, Lib Dem 18%, Ind E 12%, Ind R 9%, MK 5%, Lab 4%
Neath South: Lab 82%, Lib Dem 18%
Wombourne North and Lower Penn: Con 56%, UKIP 38%, Lab 6%
Stonecot: Lib Dem 41%, Con 37%, Lab 14%, Green 5%, UKIP 3%
Sunningwell and Wooton: Lib Dem 56%, Con 44% (2 Lib Dem elected)

[hempie]

Brentwood,Shenfield: Lib Dem 45, Con 39, UKIP 9, Lab 7
Cornwall,Gwinear-Gwithian and St. Erth: Ind F 35, Con 29, Lib Dem 15, Ind E 6, Ind R 6, MK 5, Lab 4
Neath & Port Talbot,Neath South: Lab 82, Lib Dem 18
South Staffordshire, Wombourne North and Lower Penn: Con 57, UKIP 35, Lab 8
Sutton,Stonecot: Lib Dem 43, Con 33, Lab 12, UKIP 8, Green 4
Vale of White Horse, Sunningwell and Wooton: Lib Dem 51, Con 49 (1 Con & 1 Lib Dem elected)

[greatkingrat]

BRENTWOOD - LD 49, Con 33, UKIP 11, Lab 7
CORNWALL - Con 33, Furneaux 27, LD 16, Roberts 10, Elliott 5, MK 5, Lab 4
NEATH PORT TALBOT - Lab 86, LD 14
SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE - Con 59, UKIP 30, Lab 11
SUTTON - LD 49, Con 26, Lab 14, UKIP 7, Grn 4
VALE OF WHITE HORSE - LD 51, Con 49

[Tony Otim]

In two batches, as I get time:

Brentwood:
LD 46.8
Con 37.5
UKIP 8.6
Lab 7.1

Cornwall:
Ind F 24.6
LD 19.3
Con 18.5
Ind R 17.2
Ind E 9.1
Lab 6.6
MK 4.7


Neath Port Talbot:
Lab 88.4
LD 11.6

[Tony Otim]

South Staffs:
Con 50.4
UKIP 33.1
Lab 16.5


Sutton:
LD 42.5
Con 35.4
Lab 12.4
UKIP 5.4
Grn 4.3


Vale of White Horse:
LD 52.4
Con 47.6
(1 LD, 1 Con elected)

[Philip Davies]

BRENTWOOD - Shenfield

Liz COHEN (Liberal Democrat) 42.5
Steve MAY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 42.3
Richard MILLWOOD (The Labour Party Candidate) 7.2
David WATT (UKIP) 8.0


CORNWALL - Gwinear-Gwithian and St Erth

Yvonne BATES (Liberal Democrats) 10
Derek ELLIOTT (Independent) 8
Sheila FURNEAUX (Independent) 25
John GILLINGHAM (Mebyon Kernow - The Party For Cornwall) 4
Malcolm HURST (The Labour Party Candidate) 5
Anthony PASCOE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 30
Michael ROBERTS (Independent) 18


NEATH PORT TALBOT - Neath South

Charlotte CROSS (Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 20.4
Andrew JENKINS (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 79.6


SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE - Wombourne North and Lower Penn

Barry BOND (The Conservative Party Candidate) 55.6
John BRINDLE (The Labour Party Candidate) 11.1
Lyndon JONES (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 33.3


SUTTON - Stonecot

Bonnie Craven (Lab) 12.1
Nick Emmerson (LD) 44.8
Joan Hartfield (Grn) 3.6
Graham Jarvis (C) 32.5
Jeremy Wraith (UKIP) 7.0


VALE OF WHITE HORSE - Sunningwell and Wooton (2 seats)

Adam HARDIMAN (The Conservative Party Candidate) +
Richard TREFFLER (The Conservative Party Candidate) = 45.3

Elizabeth MILES (Liberal Democrat) +
Valerie SHAW (Liberal Democrat) = 54.7 (both elected)