End of Year Prediction Competition

[Deleted]

Leo GRIGGS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 33
Patricia COPPING (People First Your Local Independent Team) 25
Hod BIRKBY (UK Independence Party) 16
Lynne BEAUMONT (Liberal Democrats) 12
Nicola KEEN (The Labour Party Candidate) 10
Derek MORAN (The Green Party) 4

[middleenglander]

There are 13 entrants this week with Just Looking entering for the first time and Swindon Lad making a reapperance. Tonyotim gets 0.5 additional faults for adding to only 99.5%.

100% Conservative hold; 9 had the Lib Dems second, ranging from 3.8% to 22% behind, whilst 4 have People First as runner-up, 8% to 26.6% behind.

[Tony Otim]

Shepway:

Con 31.1
LD 24.6
PF 16.8
Lab 13.6
UKIP 10.3
Grn 3.1


Conservative hold courtesy of a split opposition

[Philip Davies]

SHEPWAY - Folkestone Park

Lynne BEAUMONT (Liberal Democrats) 21.5
Hod BIRKBY (UK Independence Party) 10.0
Patricia COPPING (People First Your Local Independent Team) 12.2
Leo GRIGGS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 41.5
Nicola KEEN (The Labour Party Candidate) 12.8
Derek MORAN (The Green Party) 2.0

[Robert Waller]

Two more predictions not put up yet? - Pete and Andrew??

It's never so much fun waiting for the results without knowing what everybody's guessed!

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm surprised there was a full slate of predictions for a Conservative hold. I'll try and put up my prediction but am on an unfamilair laptop. Do we know if they are counting tonight?

[Pete Whitehead]

Shepway - Folkestone Park

Con 27.9%
LD 24.1%
PF 21.3%
Lab 12.4%
UKIP 11.4%
Grn 2.9%

[andrewteale]

FOLKESTONE, PARK: C 37 People First 19 Lab 17 LD 16 UKIP 7 Grn 4

[Robert Waller]

Thanks folks!
Good luck all.

[middleenglander]

With the Shepway, Park result now in, the scores for the first week of the competition are:

23.0+10=33.0 strinity
25.4+10=35.4 Pete Whitehead
26.1+10+0.5= 36.6 tonyotim
31.7+10=41.7 SwindonLad
31.8+10= 41.8 Khunanup

32.4+10=42.4 greatkingrat
39.8+10=49.8 Robert Waller
40.4+10=50.4 andyajs
40.9+10=50.9 PhilDav76
45.8+10=55.8 Mark Senior

48.4+10=58.4 Justlooking
49.0+10=59.9 David Boothroyd
50.4+10=60.4 Andrew Teale

Objections please by 9.00 am Saturday

3 contests next week, including Western Isles where there are 1 SNP and 2 Independent candidates. Predictions by 9.00 am on Thursday.

[Pete Whitehead]

This is why I was surprised no-one had gone for other than a Tory hold - even though I didn't go for it myself I'd cetrtainly toyed with a LD gain given the ward's history and thought at least one person would predict that.

[Pete Whitehead]

In actual fact my wife predicted a LD gain here. I often ask her who will win in each contest without giving the benefit of any past form or even telling her who is standiing and naturally the answers are often fairly comical but sometimes surprisingly insightful. Its not the first time she's made a plausible prediction which turned out correct while I chose a different winner - I may pay more heed in future

[Andrew_S]

Nov 23, 2012 1:14:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

In actual fact my wife predicted a LD gain here. I often ask her who will win in each contest without giving the benefit of any past form or even telling her who is standiing and naturally the answers are often fairly comical but sometimes surprisingly insightful. Its not the first time she's made a plausible prediction which turned out correct while I chose a different winner - I may pay more heed in future

When you say "sometimes surprisingly insightful" do you mean she isn't just making a wild guess?

[Pete Whitehead]

No I meant it as I phrased it. A lot of the time they are wild guesses which as I say are sometimes absurd but the law of averages dictates she will sometimes be right. But on some occasions she shows a greater insight than one might expect, for example in this case she seemed to have some understanding that southern coastal towns have a certain tendency to LD strength and on other occasions she shows a rudimentary understanding at least of the kind of regional distribution of support for the main parties as well as their kind of demographic basis of support. This is someone who has little to no interest in politics and who had never voted anywhere until 2009 when she voted in the county council elections under my guidance

[middleenglander]

There are beieved to be 16 by-elections leading up to the end of the year, including one where two seats being contested.

1 on 22nd November
3 on 29th November
6 on 6th December, including the two seat by-election
1 on 13th December
3 on 19th December, a Wednesday
2 on 20th December

10 of the contests are in District Councils
- 5 which have "all-out" elections every 4 years, the last in 2011
- 4 which have annual elections with the ward being last contested in May 2012
- 1 with annual elections but with the ward last being contested in 2011
2 of the contests are in London boroughs last contested in 2010
1 contest is in a County Council and another in a Unitary Authority where the seats fell vacant before the "six month" rule became operational and the terms lasting only until next May
whilst the remaining contests are one in Scotland and the other in Wales only contested in May this year.

Conservatives are defending 10 seats, including the double vacancy, with 6 due to resignations and 4 arising from the death of the previous councillor
Labour are defending 3 seats, 2 from deaths and 1 a resignation
Lib Dems are defending 2 seats, both due to a resignation
Greens and SNP are each defending a seat, the Greens following a resignation and SNP a death.

There are 65 candidates for the 17 seats
- Conservatives have 15 standing with no one in Neath Port Talbot and the Western Isles
- Labour have 14 standing with no one for the 2 seats in the Vale of White Horse and also in the Western Isles
- Lib Dems have 15 with no one in South Staffordshire and the Western Isles
- UKIP have 9 candidates, Greens 4 and there are a total of 5 Independents contesting just 2 seats (3 in Cornwall and 2 in the Western Isles)
- whilst there is a Mebyon Kernow in Cornwall, a People First in Shepway and SNP in Western Isles.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am GMT on the day of the contests.

[Deleted]

I take it the parliamentary predictions are seperate and these are the predictions needed for this competition?

Candidates in Stratford upon Avon, Shipston:

Geoffery Kenner (Labour) 45
Marion Lowe (Conservative) 20
Laura Nelson (Liberal Democrat) 35

SOUTHWARK - East Walworth

Ben JOHNSON (Liberal Democrats) 20
Rebecca LURY (The Labour Party Candidate) 70
Stuart MILLSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 10

NA H-EILEANAN AN IAR - Sgir'Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch


Les MAC AN ULTAIGH (Independent) 36
John MACDONALD (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 34
Angus MORRISON (Independent) 30

[erlend]

I am in the position of not commenting directly but will just suggest that that Lib Dem result in Southwark would be outside my range of expectations as agent. I also think the Tory result is a bit high! We shall see.

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm not sure how your suggestions are consistent with your not being in the position of commenting directly

[Robert Waller]

Stratford upon Avon, Shipston:

Geoffery Kenner (Labour) 32
Marion Lowe (Conservative) 22
Laura Nelson (Liberal Democrat) 46

SOUTHWARK - East Walworth

Ben JOHNSON (Liberal Democrats) 45
Rebecca LURY (The Labour Party Candidate) 50
Stuart MILLSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 5

NA H-EILEANAN AN IAR - Sgir'Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch


Les MAC AN ULTAIGH (Independent) 33
John MACDONALD (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 34
Angus MORRISON (Independent) 33






Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=predictions&action=display&thread=1095&page=3#ixzz2DYw6Htr0

[Davıd Boothroyd]

COMHAIRLE NAN EILEAN SIAR Sgir'Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch: Ind Morrison 53.4, SNP 38.6, Ind Mac An Ultaigh 8.0

SOUTHWARK East Walworth: Lab 63.6, L Dem 28.4, C 8.0

STRATFORD-UPON-AVON Shipston: L Dem 40.9, C 33.1, Lab 26.0