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Post by andrewteale on Dec 6, 2012 10:35:36 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 6, 2012 14:31:58 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 7, 2012 0:00:50 GMT
I forget how wrong winner faults work in doublke vacancy contests. Would it be 10 for each of the wrong winners and therefore 20 for those who predicted 2 Conservative holds in Vale of White Horse and 10 for those who predicted one each, or would that be 10 and 5 respectively?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 7, 2012 0:52:13 GMT
I see Just looking is continuing his hero & zero tradition from the last week or two  |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 6:28:58 GMT
I see Just looking is continuing his hero & zero tradition from the last week or two it seems i am best at two horse races  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 7, 2012 8:51:44 GMT
Well, in each race you're certainly one of the first two horses or the last two horses ....  |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 7, 2012 9:56:52 GMT
Neath Port Talbot, Neath South:
Just Looking 0.9 faults, Pete Whitehead 5.1, ,PhilDav76 8.3, David Boothroyd 9.1, Andrew Teale, hempie, Khunanup & strinity all on 13.1,. Robert Waller 15.1, Mark Senior 17.1, greatkingrat 21.1, tonyotim 25.9
South Staffordshire, Wombourne North & Penn:
greatkingrat 6.5 faults, strinity 10.6, PhilDav76 13.1, David Boothroyd 13.4, Andrew Teale 15.4, Mark Senior 16.1, hempie 16.5, tonyotim 17.8, Pete Whitehead 18.1, Khunanup 22.5, Robert Waller 28.5, Just Looking 44.8
Brentwood, Shensfield:
tonyotim 10.5, hempie 11.5, Andrew Teale 14.2, Pete Whitehead 14.5, greatkingrat 15.1, David Boothroyd 16.8, PhilDav76 17.0, Robert Waller 17.1, strinity 18.5, Mark Senior 25.1+2 (for adding to 98%), Khunanup 37.1, Just Looking 46.9
Sutton, Stonecot: Provisional based on %ages not votes
Robert Waller 11.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 11.9, greatkingrat 15.3, strinity 17.7, Andrew Teale 25.5, David Boothroyd 26.3, PhilDav76 27.5, hempie 29.3, tonyotim 34.7, Mark Senior 35.5, Just Looking 36.6, Khunanup 39.3
Vale of White Horse, Sunningwell & Wootton: Provisional based on %ages not votes
Just Looking 5.0 faults, Khunanup, Robert Waller & strinity 13.0, Pete Whitehead 13.6, PhilDav76 15.6, Mark Senior 17.0, greatkingrat 23.0, tonyotim 20.2+10, hempie 23.0+10, Andrew Teale 33.0+20, David Boothroyd 52.2+20
With Cornwall to come plus full results from Sutton & Vale of White Horse, we have provisionally for the week:
Pete Whitehead 63.2 faults, strinity 73.0, greatkingrat 81.1, PhilDav76 81.7, Robert Waller 85.2, hempie 103.5, Mark Senior 112.8, tonyotim 119.2, Andrew Teale 121.2, Khunanup 125.1, Just Looking 134.2, David Boothroyd 137.7
And for the period to date:
Pete Whitehead in the lead 35.0 ahead of greatkingrat, Phildav76 3rd 7 .0 further behind, strinity 4th another 4.4 adrift with Robert Waller 5th and Mark Senior 6th
Cornwall, Gwinear - Gwithian St Erth:
Pete Whitehead 18.6 faults, Andrew Teale & PhilDav76 26.8, greatkingrat 29.7, Khunanup33.7, Robert Waller 33.7+10, David Boothroyd 38.5+10, tonyotim 39.7+10, strinity 42.6+10, hempie 45.7+10, Mark Senior 47.2+10, Just Looking 60.7+10
Full verified results late afternoon but looks like Pete Whitehead extends his lead as the "top" 3 all correctly predicted the vCornwall winner.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 7, 2012 9:59:50 GMT
Congratulations to Pete for the week.
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 7, 2012 18:24:46 GMT
Result following full voting figures and verification of the prediction contest for the 6 by-elections for 7 seats on 6th December was:
Pete Whitehead 81.5 faults, PhilDav76 108.1, greatkingrat 110.5, strinity 125.3, Robert Waller 128.7, Andrew Teale 147.7, Khunanup 158.5, hempie 158.8, tonyotom 168.7, Mark Senior 169.7, David Boothroyd 185.9, Just Looking 204.7
And for the period to date after 10 of the 16 by-elections:
213.6 Pete Whitehead
259.7 greatkingrat
263.7 PhilDav76
294.0 strinity
307.4 Robert Waller
310.2 Andrew Teale
324.7 Mark Senior
335.8 tonyotim
347.3 David Boothroyd
351.1 Khunanup
396.8 hempie
419.6 Just Looking
770.9 Swindon Land
826.3 andyajs
Objections please by 9.00 am Sunday
Just the 1 contest next week. Predictions by 9.00 am Thursday on this thread.
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 7, 2012 20:27:01 GMT
Given the number of candidates and varied nature of the six byelections, I think the top four predictors this week did outstandingly well. What is more Pete has had a terrific 'month' overall - well done to all. My two blunders this week were deciding that there is a UKIP surge at the moment that might lead to one of their best ever performance in Wombourne, which is pretty fertile ground - see their recent results in other Wombourne wards for example. I thought that might counteract the interpretation that their high vote last time was due to just putting up one candidate and picking up plenty of third preferences from Tories. Wiser heads prevailed (in the predictions at least there. Also in Cornwall I thought the pick was whether the Independent vote would be split this time letting the C retain, or going with Furneaux's proven vote getting in the ward. I made the wrong call again. Others got it right. The judgment shown over all the elections by the winners of these prediction contests continues to stagger me. It's not just a matter of research. The one bright note for me was 'winning' the Sutton Stonecot prediction. This was gratifying as this site has been projected onto my classroom whiteboard this week as one of my Lower Sixth actually lives in Stonecot - too young to vote, but I thought this would stimulate interest - ward maps, dodgy barcharts and all; also it was amusing to hear their youthful judgments of the extent of 'nerdery' displayed by all and sundry here ... ;D |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 7, 2012 21:01:47 GMT
Robert is too kind and/or too modest as he was only a couple of faults outside the top four himself so we may as well say the top 5.
I initially thought I had 'won' in Sutton which please me as I had also 'won' East Walworth last week and hitherto my performance in the London contests has been a bit below par in what I consider my particular area of expertise. But when I saw you'd outclassed me there I remembered it is your manor so didn't mind too much
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 7, 2012 21:17:31 GMT
Congratulations to Pete.
I've finally decided to throw in the towel as far as the prediction competition is concerned. My form has been going downhill almost every week for about a year so I've obviously lost the knack. Probably better for me to spend my time on vintage election results.
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Post by marksenior on Dec 8, 2012 9:23:20 GMT
Well done to Pete for a great performance this week . Interesting that my relatively poor performance was down to underestimating the Lib Dem vote shares in all the contests and taking the wrong view in Cornwall as did Mr Waller .
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 8, 2012 9:57:48 GMT
Well done to Pete for a great performance this week . Interesting that my relatively poor performance was down to underestimating the Lib Dem vote shares in all the contests and taking the wrong view in Cornwall as did Mr Waller . Your Lib Dem prediction in Cornwall was 21% against an actual 12.9%. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 8, 2012 11:15:09 GMT
Well done to Pete for a great performance this week . Interesting that my relatively poor performance was down to underestimating the Lib Dem vote shares in all the contests and taking the wrong view in Cornwall as did Mr Waller . Thanks Mark. I must say I was surprised by your prediction in Sutton in particular |
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Post by marksenior on Dec 8, 2012 11:58:16 GMT
Well done to Pete for a great performance this week . Interesting that my relatively poor performance was down to underestimating the Lib Dem vote shares in all the contests and taking the wrong view in Cornwall as did Mr Waller . Thanks Mark. I must say I was surprised by your prediction in Sutton in particular I expected the Sutton percentages to be much closer to the 2006 results rather than the 2010 GE turnout performance . |
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Post by hempie on Dec 12, 2012 15:53:40 GMT
My prediction for this week's contest:
Harrogate, Bilton: LD 42, Con 35, Lab 15, UKIP 8
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 12, 2012 20:30:20 GMT
Harrogate, Bilton: LD 48, Con 33, Lab 13, UKIP 6
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2012 21:37:19 GMT
Harrogate, Bilton: LD 40, Con 30, ukip 20, labour 10
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Post by marksenior on Dec 12, 2012 22:26:29 GMT
My forecast this week
LD 49 Con 30 Lab 13 UKIP 8
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