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Post by Tangent on Nov 29, 2012 16:00:29 GMT
The crucial thing is how well Labour manage their after-work GOTV push. They ought to win with a half-decent push; but in many safe Labour seats, the detailed canvass returns and telling leaves a lot to be desired.
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Post by marksenior on Nov 29, 2012 16:14:32 GMT
Labour canvassing is much more concentrated on telephone canvassing than on door to door and coupled with a good GOTV opration it should see them home comfortably .
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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 29, 2012 16:15:01 GMT
I note on the Election Game website that out of 73 predictions, 67 people have still opted for Labour to hold Rotherham. The other six are split equally between UKIP and Respect. I've predicted the highest UKIP majority (930), someone's predicted a 10,000 majority for Respect...
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 29, 2012 16:17:10 GMT
I note on the Election Game website that out of 73 predictions, 67 people have still opted for Labour to hold Rotherham. The other six are split equally between UKIP and Respect. I've predicted the highest UKIP majority (930), someone's predicted a 10,000 majority for Respect... They also predicted the same sized majority for Respect in Croydon... nuff said. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 29, 2012 17:39:20 GMT
IIRC she was the first journalist to seriously suggest that Galloway had a chance of winning in Bradford West. She was also more-or-less the only hack covering it. Still, there are reasons to be at least a tad jittery. |
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Post by nord on Nov 29, 2012 19:32:19 GMT
UKIP not popular at the hustings. The only parties that got clapped were BNP and the English Democrats.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2012 19:35:43 GMT
IIRC she was the first journalist to seriously suggest that Galloway had a chance of winning in Bradford West. She was also more-or-less the only hack covering it. Still, there are reasons to be at least a tad jittery. from a quick glance on twitter I do not see the same kind of stories about a UKIP win as we saw with a Respect win in Bradford. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
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Post by andrea on Nov 29, 2012 19:39:46 GMT
She was also more-or-less the only hack covering it. Still, there are reasons to be at least a tad jittery. from a quick glance on twitter I do not see the same kind of stories about a UKIP win as we saw with a Respect win in Bradford. Yvonne thinks she's doing well because Labour canvassers are becoming rude to Respect canvassers.....which seem to suggest she doesn't have a extensive GOTV operation if she has to rely on that to have an idea on how things are going. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,844 
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Post by Crimson King on Nov 29, 2012 19:46:01 GMT
Sheffield Tory (yes, they do exist) Vonny Watts on Twitter: So would she be happy if the BNP won? Yeah, probably - don't forget lots of Tories voted for Galloway earlier this year   using the term 'tory' fairly loosley |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 29, 2012 19:47:24 GMT
Ah yes, I know what you mean there But didn't he poll pretty well in the "white" areas of the seat too?? |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,844
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Post by Crimson King on Nov 29, 2012 20:05:41 GMT
yes, to an extent. It's grossly oversimplified but there is a bit of the artistic romantic leftism in Thornton - bit like a less extreme version of Hebden bridge (which is why I like it by the way) and similar people iin the centre who also were tempted
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Post by simoncooke on Nov 29, 2012 20:26:13 GMT
yes, to an extent. It's grossly oversimplified but there is a bit of the artistic romantic leftism in Thornton - bit like a less extreme version of Hebden bridge (which is why I like it by the way) and similar people iin the centre who also were tempted Having spent the afternoon and evening of that day knocking up, I'd say the problem was that the Thornton Tories just didn't vote at all. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 29, 2012 20:27:26 GMT
Didn't the Tories still carry Thornton though?
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Post by simoncooke on Nov 29, 2012 20:29:59 GMT
Didn't the Tories still carry Thornton though? The village and rural bit but not Allerton |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 29, 2012 21:01:51 GMT
But the ward I mean? I think CK said so at the time
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Post by Tangent on Nov 29, 2012 22:59:02 GMT
From Jon Craig at Sky on Twitter:
Early predictions from sources at Rotherham count are a Labour win by about 2,000, UKIP 2nd & Respect possibly 3rd. Tories losing deposit?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 29, 2012 23:04:15 GMT
Hmmm, the Beeb journalist in Rotherham has said that Labour people there seem confident. Fingers crossed.......
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 29, 2012 23:12:31 GMT
Holding Labour to a 2k majority would be a stunning result. Still I remember at this stage they were talking up UKIP coming second in Corby and Plaid coming second in Cardiff South so i'll wait till the rsult I guess
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 29, 2012 23:14:56 GMT
Report on Twitter says turnout 33.89% - seems a precise figure but too early for a verified votes turnout so I'm guessing, if accurate, it's the number of BPs issued.
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Post by independentukip on Nov 29, 2012 23:18:18 GMT
From Helen Pidd:
"Just seen Nigel Farage at the Rotherham byelection count. Says: "labour will win - but not by much. UKIP a massive second. Tories nowhere""
"BNP looking v gloomy. They reckon Ukip have nicked their votes. They are still hoping for 4th (ahead of Tories and Lib Dem). "
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