Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

In SalzburgCity ÖVP's incumbent will get ~55%. So, no landslide, but he kept the 10%-lead from the first round.

Regaining the city 2024 (when federal ÖVP&FPÖ will probably be unpopular and the ÖVP-mayor won't stand) will be crucial for SPÖ, if they do not want to end as an unimportant 15-20%-party at/behind FPÖ/GREENS/NEOS, as it is already the case in the rest of WestAustria: Vorarlberg, Tyrol (and partly UpperAustria).

[Georg Ebner]

ÖVP was able to defend 5 mayors: SalzburgCity, St.Johann, Seekirchen, Elsbethen, BadHofgastein; and gained 1: Oberalm (from SPÖ).

SPÖ defended 1: Oberndorf; and gained those 4 municipalities mentioned earlier.

[Georg Ebner]

I rated Oberalm wrongly (and Mattsee was far from close).

[Georg Ebner]

SalzbrgCity:

43.9% (-4.4% compared to FirstRound) participation

55.6% (+14.3%) Preuner/ÖVP (inc.)
44.4% (+13.6%) Auinger/SPÖ

[Georg Ebner]

In 3 municipalities of LowerAustria SnapElections had to be held today, too. 2 are smaller ones - and Stockerau.

Stockerau is a 17.000-town north of Vienna. Once industrial and a SPÖ-fortress, it has become one of Vienna's BedBurghs.
Politically SPÖ has always reigned since 1919/1945. (Famous among "PsephoLogists" is another irregular election, which took place in 1932 and resulted in strong gains of the NSDAP from the SocialDemocrats, caused by the fact, that the red NetWorks weren't as strong as in Vienna or St.Pölten.) Since 2015 SPÖ&FPÖ have ruled, but ironically both - the SPÖ-mayor and the FPÖ-DeputyMayor - have been perceived as too generous to the CoalitionPartner and replaced/expelled by their parties, leading to so many defections&abstentions, that no more work was doable.
This mess (plus the suburbification and perhaps also the well-known fact, that the ÖVP-dominated LowerAustria pays more money to ÖVP-mayors) meant, that ÖVP was increasing from 30% to 45% (18/37 seats), the GREENS passing the 10% - and the opposite happening to SPÖ and FPÖ.

[Georg Ebner]

SalzburgCity's ÖVP had apparently secret internal OpinionPolls showing them ahead since last October, while those for the public were still reporting a NeckToNeck-race.

[The Bishop]

Mar 26, 2019 10:05:19 GMT Georg Ebner said:

SalzburgCity's ÖVP had apparently secret internal OpinionPolls showing them ahead since last October, while those for the public were still reporting a NeckToNeck-race.

Ah, those strange beasts again.

[Georg Ebner]

UpperA.'s employees have elected their chamber representing them.
SPÖ received its best result over in UpperA.:

40.9 (-1.4) part. (less PV [~0.2%])

71.0 (+5.5) SPÖ
13.4 ( -3.7) ÖVP
10.2 (+0.2) FPÖ
04.2 ( -1.1) GREENS
01.2 (+0.2) KPÖ

The president of ÖVP's federal TradeUnionists (ÖAAB-FCG) - who is an UpperAustrian and is also the unimpressive leader of the ÖVP-faction in the federal parliament - made a remark on voting, that was turned against him by SPÖ and left journalists. ÖVP&FPÖ's allowance to work 60 hours per week may have played a role, too. Perhaps also, that ÖVP was led by a woman, while UpperA. has lots of BlueCollar-men?

[Georg Ebner]

After the EP, Vorarlberg will be next. Here's a poll by SORA:


Electability:

Development:

SatisFaction with regional and federal government:

The latter is fascinating: Contrary to restA., where ÖVP&FPÖ is still popular, Vorarlberg's ÖVP&GREENS-coalition has been critical of the federal policy on immigration. (What was halted, when an AsylumSeeker killed a CivilServant, the leader of the SocialDepartment in the City of Dornbirn.)
As i have pointed out now and again, it is no coincidence, that in a straight duel of left-vs.-Right (i.e. GREENS vs. FPÖ) as in the RunOff of the PresidentialElection 2016 the GREENS' v.d.Bellen performed very well in Vorarlberg: Austria's west is moving to the left due to many immigrants, badly paid tourism-jobs, high urbanization, the GREENS&NEOS attracting different to SPÖ also the wealthy&healty.

[Georg Ebner]

The 9 regional chambers representing all employees have been elected. Apparently nobody in my country cares about the total result, thus You'll be the first, who'll see the numbers (Styria isn't final, though):

3.066.270 eligible
1.182.264 = 38.56% ( -1.21%) participation
1.162.284 = 98.31% (+0.53%) valid

702.866 = 60.47% (+3.31%) SPÖ
215.886 = 18.57% ( -2.46%) ÖVP
117.050 = 10.07% (+0.39%) FPÖ
063.084 = 05.43% ( -0.58%) GREENS
017.442 = 01.50% (+0.15%) KPÖ
045.956 = 03.95% ( -0.82%) others

A surprising success for SPÖ and a cold shower for ÖVP.
SORA conducted an OpinionPoll (in Vienna only) - is there any interest in having a closer look? Or in an historical OverView?

[Georg Ebner]

Apr 12, 2019 20:40:00 GMT Georg Ebner said:

The 9 regional chambers representing all employees have been elected.
SORA conducted an OpinionPoll (in Vienna only) - is there any interest in having a closer look? Or in an historical OverView?

So nobody unfortunately.

[Georg Ebner]

Of more interest, i hope: Few days after Doskozil from SPÖ's RightWing had been elected leader of SPÖ-Burgenland by the PartyDelegates (September ~8th), exPM Kern from the LeftWing resigned as federal chief (Sept. ~15th) - prohibiting the popular Burgenländer's candidature, what was certainly no coincidence!

Now, as Dozkozil is PM of Burgenland (the infamous SPÖ&FPÖ-coalition), he tries to appeal to the broader party austrianwide with a very left PlatForm in social affairs: At least 1.600€ for all CivilServants and for all, who care for their elderly (more than a trained nurse earns initially!), making thousands quasi StateSlaves.
So far poor Burgenland has had rather few debts (also per capita).

[finsobruce]

Apr 21, 2019 23:43:29 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Apr 12, 2019 20:40:00 GMT Georg Ebner said:

The 9 regional chambers representing all employees have been elected.
SORA conducted an OpinionPoll (in Vienna only) - is there any interest in having a closer look? Or in an historical OverView?

So nobody unfortunately.

Historical overview would be nice, Georg. 

[Georg Ebner]

Short Historical OverView LabourMovement:

"You cannot build socialism in a country of backwarded mountain-farmers and servile waiters." said 1919 O.Bauer, the leader of the SDAPÖ's ideological wing.
But a short time later, after the SDAPÖ had received 41%, the highest share of votes worldwide, the party claimed correctly and jubilantly, that nowhere else WorkingClass and SD-party would be so congruent as in what was left of old imperial Austria. Why did that happen? The national-liberal TradeUnions had been able (to a low extent) to make some InRoads on german workers in northern Czechia, whose wages&positions were endangered by cheaper Czechs; but in Vienna this rivalry was less given (let alone in the 3 other industrial&mining areas of restAustria: the IndustrieViertel south of Vienna, upperStyria, Vorarlberg). The Cath.Cons. on the other hand had some support among craftsmen and workers in small high-quality enterprises, but not in real factories (what was strongly caused by "the red terror" inside those; another reason was, that BigBusiness supported in EastA. the CSP [in Mid&West-A. the Nat.lib.s]). Some numbers: Of those organized in lots of TradeUnions (even the socialdem. "FreeTUs" consisted of dozens of TUs), in Vienna 85% were 1931 red (10% black, 5% blue/brown), in the rest of eastA. 80%, in Styria 75% aso., even in Tyrol they were over 50%, only in Vorarlberg the CSP was at 50% (Soc.dem.s 35%, GermanNat. 15%). In the chambers for all employees the SDAPÖ received overall majorities among workers everywhere (except Vorarlberg 1926 [49 vs. 48 CS]): in 1921 90.4%, in 1926 83.5%. (Among WhiteCollars majorities were given to them in the 3 eastern regions, narrower ones in Styria [58-60] and none in Mid&WestA..)
Important to is also, that the TUs were in monarchy and early republic the avantgarde, followed by the party (representing the establishment), what meant for example, that exactly during the austrian (pseudo)revolution the party was lamenting to be side-kicked by the TUs (especially the ArbeiterRäte and SoldatenRäte [SoldierCouncils]). In the late 1920ies and early 1930ies the SDAPÖ was split into 3 groups: The right wing (around federal®ional ministers like Renner or Helmer), who wanted to govern pragmatically; the ideologues in the cities ([mis]led by O.Bauer), who were verbally radical and anticlerical/"progressive", but their ideological "ÜberBau" - unfortunately they forgot to include themselves into the marxistic schema... - was based on a structural conservativism (after all the thriving SDAPÖ-CityAdministrations with their "MachinePolitics" in Vienna, WienerNeustadt aso. had a lot to lose after a failed revolution and they were full of CivilServants, who had formerly been black/blue&brown); the third group were the physically aggressive BlueCollars in the small red islands surrounded by a black sea, who naturally felt besieged. Especially the first's and the third's young generation left the party and its army-association ("SchutzBund") since ~1927 - when O.Bauer's dominating verbal radicalism led once again to no actual action - towards KPÖ or NSDAP.
The SecondRepublic has seen a stability so typical for the pettybourgeois StateCapitalism ("socialism"): SPÖ lost the control over the Chambers for workers&employees in Vorarlberg and Tyrol during Kreisky's era (1970ies). Inside the UnitaryTU ("Österr.GewerkschaftsBund/ÖGB") the federal®ional CivilServants (except those of ViennaCity) have preferred the ÖVP-faction (FCG-ÖAAB), all other branches have stood at SPÖ's FSG.

[Georg Ebner]

p.scr.:
An important factor for SDAPÖ's unique strength was, that different to the rest of the world the Communists haven't played a larger role (only in the 1930ies they began to "explode" from 0.x/1.x% to 2/3/4%). Even in the mining areas - everywhere the Communists' StrongHolds - the SDAPÖ kept the UpperHand (although many KPÖ-politicians came from there).
Caused mainly by the focus of V.Adler during the monarchy to protect "the unity of the WorkingClass" and in the first republic by the verbal aggression of the PartyLeadership around O.Bauer. Also in the second republic the SPÖ was proud to be the most socialistic party in the western world (but this was mostly only in theory the case, in reality Schärf&Kreisky governed very pragmatically, what was no problem for them because all mining and large parts of the industry were state-owned from the beginning 1945).

[Georg Ebner]

This time's results for the 9 regional Workers&Employees-Chambers (the federal president isn't elected directly; instead, indirectly by them):

[Georg Ebner]

The EP-election (which was a federal one, of course, thus does not fit into this thread emtirely) saw some records: Neverever has a party achieved more than 33%, this time ÖVP - or rather: Kurz - got 35.4%. Neverever has the distance to the second been so large (11.8%).

ÖVP gained unsurprisingly especially in the more liberal west (less antiÖVP&FPÖ Vorarlberg): over 10% in Tyrol and Salzburg, then Styria aso.; below 5% in SPÖ's Vienna and Burgenland.

[Georg Ebner]

SORA published an analysis, also an analysis on VoteStreams.
Compared to the last GE in 2017 they claim, that FPÖ lost only 60.000 to Kurz and gained 50.000 from ÖVP; but - according to them - 2/3 million of their 2017-voters (51%!) stood at home this time.

[Georg Ebner]

SORA published an analysis, also an analysis on VoteStreams.
Compared to the last GE in 2017 they claim, that FPÖ lost only 60.000 to Kurz and gained 50.000 from ÖVP; but - according to them - 2/3 million of their 2017-voters (51%!) stood at home this time.

Generally i agree (although these numbers are really quite extreme).

[Georg Ebner]

VoteStream-analysis:

SORA:
compared to EP-election 2014:
www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2019_EUW_WaehlerstroemeEUW.pdf
compared to NR-election 2017:
www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/SORA-Medieninfo_NRW17-EUW19.pdf

exProf. E.Neuwirth (univ.Vienna, dep.Statistics):
www.waehlerstromanalyse.at/

Institut für WahlForschung: